Welcome to the 2024 NBA regular season! Let's look at all the action and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know to start the year and beyond.
Here's the Action Network's NBA betting primer.
NBA Betting Trends, Stats, Notes
Opening Dogs
Underdogs have had a small advantage in team openers dating back a decade. Dogs have been .500 ATS or better in six straight seasons and 9 of the last 10 years. Overall, dogs are 75-63-1 ATS in a teams' opener since 2015.
Chalk City
The Celtics had an average point spread of -8.7 PPG last season, the fifth-highest over the past 30 years for any full 82-game season. All five teams on the list all made the NBA Finals ('96 Bulls, '97 Bulls, '15 Warriors, '16 Warriors, '24 Celtics).
On opening night this season, the Celtics are 5-point favorites against the Knicks.
Dating back to 2009, Celtics are 10-4-1 ATS in their openers — the third-best mark in the NBA behind the Clippers and Nuggets.
The role of the underdog wasn't something the Celtics dealt with too many times last year, which put them on an exclusive list. Since 1995, only four teams entered an appearance in the NBA Finals having only been listed as an underdog three times or fewer throughout the regular season and playoffs:
The 1996-97 Bulls (0 games), the 2023-24 Celtics (3 games), the 2016-17 Warriors (3 games), and the 1995-96 Bulls (3 games).
All four won the title that same season… with the other three also winning the title the NEXT season.
Ups and Downs
Going back the last 20 years, here are the most profitable teams ATS in their opening games, with the least profitable teams listed below that.
Best:
Nuggets: 14-5 ATS
Clippers: 13-6 ATS
Celtics: 12-6-1 ATS
Blazers: 12-7 ATS
Pacers: 12-7 ATS
Worst:
Grizzlies: 5-14 ATS
Suns: 7-12 ATS
Wizards: 7-12 ATS
Bulls: 7-12 ATS
Lakers: 7-12 ATS
Dethroned
The Lakers under LeBron James have been underdogs in their opener three times and they are 0-3 SU/ATS, failing to cover the spread by 6.7 PPG. With the Lakers, LeBron is 0-6 SU/ATS in openers.
Back in 2015, LeBron’s Cavs were underdogs vs. Bulls in their opener. They lost SU, but covered the spread.
In 2003, 2007 and 2008 with the Cavs, LeBron was listed as a 'dog in their opener, and they went 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS vs. the Mavericks, Celtics and Kings.
Overall, LeBron has been listed as a 'dog in his teams' opener seven times and his teams went 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS in those contests.
The only other time he’s been listed as a home underdog in his teams opener was back in 2007 vs. the Mavericks as a 2.5-pt dog, and they lost 92-74.
Different Directions
The longest ATS winning and losing streaks in their season openers entering 2024 ironically belong to the Clippers and Lakers.
The Clippers have covered the spread in five straight openers dating back to 2019.
While the Lakers haven't covered the spread in a season opener since since 2016 — when Luke Walton was the head coach. Under Darvin Ham and Frank Vogel, the Lakers went 0-5 ATS in openers.
For the Lakers, going back even further, opening night hasn't been a pretty picture. Since 2009, they are 3-12 ATS in openers, with each head coach covering the spread in only one matchup apiece during that span (Walton, Mike D'Antoni, Mike Brown) — no coach with 2 or more. To understand how wild of a turnaround this is, between 1996-2008, Lakers only lost ONE game ATS in their season opener.
Lakers in Season Opener — Last 30 Years
2009-present: 3-12-1 ATS
1995-08: 12-2 ATS
All About Coaching
Let's focus on coaches for a minute now. In terms of active head coaches, here are the best in season openers in the last 20 years:
Tyronn Lue: 6-1 ATS
Billy Donovan: 6-3 ATS
Gregg Popovich: 11-8 ATS
Of the 110 head coaches last 20 years, Lue's 6-1 ATS mark in season openers is the best of any head coach. Lue is also 3-0 ATS as an underdog on opening night, and the Clippers are listed as underdogs against the Suns in their first matchup of this season.
One active coach to keep an eye on early in the season is Nick Nurse for the 76ers. He's 19-11 ATS in his first five games of a season, the 4th-best mark in the last 20 years.
Ice Cold
On the other side of the spectrum, here are coaches who have had a tougher time out of the gate.
The worst active coach ATS in season openers? Tom Thibodeau, who is 3-8-1 ATS. The next-closest would be Quin Snyder at 3-6 ATS.
The good thing for New York, Thibs is 2-1-1 ATS in openers with the Knicks, and he was 0-3 ATS in Minnesota, and 1-4 ATS with the Bulls.
Another candidate for tough starts is Rick Carlisle. Last year with the Pacers, he broke a personal 7-year ATS losing streak in openers split between his time with the Pacers and Mavericks.
Starting Fresh
Here are the rest of the longest ATS winning and losing streaks on opening night entering the 2024 season.
Winning:
Clippers: 5
Hornets: 3
Mavericks: 2
Pistons: 2
Pelicans: 2
Thunder: 2
Raptors: 2
Losing:
Lakers: 7
Cavaliers: 3
Grizzlies: 2
Heat: 2
Hawks: 2
Wolves: 2
Spurs: 2
Rookie In The Room
Let's stick with head coaches and talk how they've performed in their first seasons with a team and as rookie head coaches.
Since 2000, we've had 162 "new head coaches" to begin a season. They are 73-89 (45%) to their win total over. Looking at the Nets, Wizards, and Pistons (all with new coaches and win totals below 30), those teams are actually 25-23 to the over on their win totals.
The Cavaliers, Hornets, Pistons and Wizards have higher win totals this year with a new head coach than they had total wins last season. While the Suns, Lakers and Nets have lower win totals than they did wins last year. Here is how teams perform on win total based on which side of that spectrum they are on.
48-48 even — higher win total this year than they had total wins last season
24-39 to the over — lower win total this year than they did wins last season
Looking at just rookie head coaches in their first stint. We've seen 67 of them since 2000. They are 29-38 to their win total over. JJ Redick has the highest of rookie head coaches this season at 43.5 with the Lakers. Rookies with a win total of 43+ are also just 8-13 to the over.
Old Rusty
Looking for an edge betting over/unders on opening night? Since 2017, they are an even 52-52 in teams openers. But in that same timeframe, 1st half unders in openers are 57-40 (59%), going under the 1st half total by almost a full point per half.
Through The Roof
Trying to make a decision on some high totals this year? Over the past five seasons, here are the outliers in terms of teams when the total is 230+ for the game.
The Pacers are 96-77-2 to the over with a total of 230+, best in the NBA. The Thunder, Wizards and Wolves are right behind them.
The Grizzlies are 42-73-2 to the over with a total of 230+, worst in the NBA. The Hornets, Nets and Rockets are just ahead of them.
Fresh Legs
We have two games on tap to start the season where one team will be in their season opener, while the other would have already had a game under their legs.
On October 24, the Wizards will be playing their first game of the season, while the Celtics will be on Game 2. Similarly, the Kings will be on Game 1, while the Timberwolves will be on Game 2.
Teams in their first game, facing an opponent in Game 2 or later, are 44-29-1 ATS (60%) over the last 20 years and 6-0 ATS since 2022 and 11-3 ATS since 2016.
Big Dog DC
The Wizards will face the Celtics in their season opener and they are going to be listed as double-digit underdogs at home.
In the last 20 years, we've only seen five teams close +13 or higher in their first game of the year. One covered, one pushed and three lost ATS.
If Washington closes at +14, that would be the record for the last 20 years in an opener, previously set by the Thunder back in 2021 against the Jazz. Utah won by 21.
Going back 30 years, here are the biggest underdogs in a season opener:
1999 Bulls, +17 at Jazz. Lost 104-96
1995 Grizzlies, +15 at Blazers. Won 92-80
2002 Nuggets, +14.5 at Wolves. Lost 83-77
2021 Thunder, +14 at Jazz. Lost 107-86
Looking at double-digit home underdogs in season openers. This would be just the 4th in the last 30 years and potentially the biggest of the bunch:
2008 Clippers, +10 at Lakers. Lost 117-79
1999 Grizzlies, +10 at Blazers. Lost 106-86
1996 Celtics, +12 at Bulls. Lost 107-98
Turn It Around
It's hard to ignore the tough run Quin Snyder has been on lately. Over the last three seasons with the Hawks and Jazz, Snyder is 75-121-2 ATS (38%), with a $100 bettor down over $5,200 betting his teams. Snyder is the least profitable coach ATS by almost $1,800 in difference.
When Snyder's team is playing a SEGABABA — second game of a back-to-back — and his opponent isn't, he is 4-19 ATS over the last three seasons.
Started From The Bottom…
Let's focus on the futures market for a second. We'll start with longshots. In the last 40 years, only nine teams have won the NBA title with preseason odds of 10-1 or higher.
2014-15: Golden State Warriors (+2800)
2010-11: Dallas Mavericks (+2000)
2018-19: Toronto Raptors (+1850)
2022-23: Denver Nuggets (+1800)
2003-04: Detroit Pistons (+1500)
2013-14: San Antonio Spurs (+1200)
1993-94: Houston Rockets (+1200)
2002-03: San Antonio Spurs (+1100)
2007-08: Boston Celtics (+1000)
Of the 40 total seasons, nine teams have won at 10-1 or higher (23%) and 31 teams have won under that 10-1 mark (67%). The eventual NBA champion has been listed below 20-1 in nine straight years, 12 of the past 13 years and 38 of the past 40 years. The 2015 Warriors at 28-1 and 2011 Mavericks at 20-1 are the only outliers.
It also isn't often we get a long shot to win the title out of the East. Only thee of the six 10-1 or longer teams came from the Eastern Conference, with really just the 2018-19 Raptors and 2003-04 Pistons serving as the staples.
Aside from Toronto, only the Celtics in 2008 were 6-1 or higher in preseason odds to win the title coming out of the East over the last 20 years.
The Celtics were the first Eastern Conference team to be favored in an NBA Finals since the 2011 and 2013 Heat. Prior to that, no team from the conference had been favored in the Finals since the 1998 Bulls. Since 1980, there have been 14 teams from the East favored in a Finals series, and they are 12-2, with the 2011 Heat (vs. Mavericks) and 1995 Magic (vs. Rockets) losing their respective series.
Here are two different ways to look at the odds:
A bit of parity. For the first time since 1975-80, the NBA has seen six different teams win the title in six consecutive years — 2024 Celtics, 2023 Nuggets, 2022 Warriors, 2021 Bucks, 2020 Lakers, 2019 Raptors. That instance in 1975-80 is the only other instance since the league's creation in 1947 when six different teams won it all in six straight years.
But not too much parity. In seven of the past nine years, a single-digit odds team entering the season has won it all (8-1, 9-1 etc). Going back over the past 40 years, a team listed under 10-1 entering the year has won it all 31 times (78%).
MVP Markets
Nikola Jokic won his third MVP award last season, putting him on a short list of nine players to win 3+ MVPs.
Nikola Jokic Odds to Win MVP — Entering Season
2023: +450
2021: +1600
2020: +2500
We have NBA MVP odds dating back to 2006 — eighteen years. Five times (28%) a player at 10-1 or higher has won the award, with Jokic occupying two of those slots.
The favorite has actually gone on to win the NBA MVP 7 of the 18 years, with Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Russell Westbrook and LeBron James also accomplishing the feat. LeBron has done it four times in this span.
Only once has the eventual winner of the award come outside the top-10 slots in odds: 2020 Nikola Jokic, who was tied for 11th. 2010 Derrick Rose only had a limited number of players listed — as his 25-1 preseason odds matched Jokic for the longest MVP winner in this span.
In 13 of the 18 years, a player with odds ranked inside the top-5 eventually went on to win the award.
Win Total Notes
Celtics have the highest win total in the NBA this year at 58.5. They were tied for the league-lead with 54.5 last year.
Since 2000, 18 teams have entered a season with a win total of 58 or higher, and the 2024 Celtics are the first since the 2018 Warriors and Celtics. Of those previous 18 teams, only four eclipsed that win total and went over. Two were the 2015 and 2016 Warriors, then the 2012 Heat, and then the 2005 Spurs — with 3 of those 4 teams having their win total decided in Game 77 or later.
Aside from Boston, the story has to be the Knicks. With a win total of 54.5, it is their highest since 1993-94 when they made the NBA Finals. The Knicks haven't had a win total of 50+ since 2013-14 and they last eclipsed 50+ wins back in 1996-97.
The Thunder have the 2nd-highest win total and their meteoric rise has been nutty.
Thunder Win Total — Last 4 Seasons
2024: 56.5
2023: 44.5 — Over (57)
2022: 23.5 — Over (40)
2021: 23.5 — Over (24)
The Nuggets are on a historic run. Denver hasn't officially gone under their win total in almost a decade. Last time they did go under, Barack Obama was still president, Kobe Bryant was entering his last season in the league, and most importantly — Denver was just about to hire Michael Malone. Malone's 1st season came in 2015, and Denver is 8-0 to their win total over since then, with the 2019-20 season taken out due to the pandemic.
On the other side, the Lakers have gone under their win total in five straight seasons, the longest streak in the NBA, if you take out the 2019-20 season. If you include it, their streak is four straight unders. Since 2011, Lakers are 2-10 to their win total over.
The Magic (47.5) have their highest win total since 2010. The Timberwolves (52.5) have their highest since 2004. The Kings (46.5) have their highest since 2005.
As coach of the Spurs, Gregg Popovich is 18-8 to the win total over, but San Antonio has gone under now in consecutive years (2022, 2023) for the first time under Pop.
The Blazers have bottomed out. With a win total of 22.5, it is their lowest entering a season in over 30 years.
Finally, let's talk Nets. With a win total of 19.5, they are on the verge of some history. No team has closed under 20 since the Sixers in 2014 had a win total of 16. Since 2000, nine teams have closed with a win total below 20 — 8 of those 9 teams eclipsed their win total with five of those teams winning 20 games or more. The one team to go under? The 2002 Nuggets, who won 17 games on a 19.5 win total.
Started From The Bottom…
Don't be scared off by early season travel.
Teams within their first 10 games of the season are covering the spread at a 55% rate over a 1,300-game sample size on the 2nd game or later of a road trip (game on the road) over the last 20 years. A $100 bettor would be up over $8,000, for a 6.7% ROI.
When you reduce that to 5th game or earlier, it raises to a 11% ROI for bettors in that span.
Don't Mess With Thibs
No coach does a better job at avenging bad losses than Thibs. In his career in the NBA, his teams are 104-69-4 ATS (60%) after losing to his current opponent by double-digits in their previous meeting. Of 139 coaches over the last 20 years, that is the best mark in the NBA.
Unbalanced
Historically, teams having to travel long distances over a short period catches up with them. According to Bet Labs, teams having to travel 5,000+ miles over a 5-day span are covering just 34.2% of games.
Bet The Bad
Finally, it's worth remembering. When it comes to betting in the NBA, it's not always about just taking the better team. In the last decade, teams with a 60%+ win pct, facing a team with a win pct of 40% or less, have been above .500 ATS in just one of those seasons (2019-20).
