With NBA Finals Game 1 in the books, there are three basketball bets I'm making right now, including an NBA Finals bet, an NBA offseason bet and an Olympics bet on the USA Basketball 3x3 Women's National Team.
Jayson Tatum Most Assists in the NBA Finals
Jayson Tatum has played more of a facilitator role all season long. He averaged a career high in the regular season for assists, and his playoff average of 5.9 assists per game is his second best for any playoff run. The Mavericks defense seems determined to take his scoring away, which led to Tatum finishing with five assists on an astonishing 14 potential assists in Game 1. For reference, only four players averaged more than 14 potential assists for the regular season. Tatum has been upping his passing all playoffs, and this is essentially a race between him and Luka Dončić, who he currently has a four-assist lead on.
One of those four players who averaged over 14 potential assists during the regular season is Dončić, who finished with one assist on seven potential assists in Game 1. During this playoff run, Dončić has led each series in assists, but he has never been in as big of a hole as he is in right now. The Celtics are playing him for the pass more than any other team by switching and not blitzing or dropping, which means his scoring should only go up while the assists don't reach the same level as they were before.
Tatum was +1000 to be the assists leader going into the series, and this movement seems to imply that someone else on the Celtics could still lead the team in assists (very unlikely). If it's a two-man race, which I think it is, I'm going to take Tatum at +650, which is good if it's a longer series and still has a chance if it's a shorter one.
Bet: Jayson Tatum Most Assists, +650, .35u, FanDuel (bet down to +500)
Paul George's Next Team
The Thunder have enough cap space to afford almost a max player and can easily create more. With extensions on the horizon for a lot of their young players, this is close to their last opportunity to sign a real free agent. They have four starters locked in: two guards, a forward and a center. They really need to upgrade the spot that Josh Giddey currently occupies.
Paul George is the best fit among eligible free agents for that spot. He was quietly very good last season, is an elite shooter and would fit perfectly with the Thunder. In case you've forgotten, he signed a contract with the Thunder just a few seasons ago, and now would be upgrading to a better Thunder team.
George and the Clippers are on opposite sides in extension talks and seem not particularly close on the years and money. If he reaches free agency, I think there are only three real contenders: the Clippers, 76ers and Thunder. The Thunder are the best fit for him, and this is a worthy gamble on something that just makes too much basketball sense.
Bet: Paul George Next Regular-Season Minute to be Played for the Thunder, +2500, .2u, DraftKings (bet down to +1800)
USA Basketball 3x3 Women's National Team at the Olympics
USA Basketball just announced the four players who will be representing the women's 3x3 team in Paris.
The Paris Four 🙌
Introducing the 2024 USA 3x3 Women's National Team! 🇺🇸 #3x3WNTpic.twitter.com/sNIWMH4ivJ
— USA Basketball 3x3 (@usab3x3) June 5, 2024
In 2020, the USA Women's 3x3 team won gold with a team featuring Stefanie Dolson, Allisha Gray, Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young. That team was stacked, with four WNBA players on it.
This time around, the Team USA roster is Rhyne Howard, Cameron Brink, Cierra Burdick and Hailey Van Lith. While the overall level of talent isn't the same, Howard has already established herself as a better scorer than anyone on Team USA had by that point. Brink has proven to be excellent defensively, Van Lith is one of the best distributors in the world and Burdick has been playing with the women's 3x3 team for a while — and the three of them minus Howard just won the world championships.
The way this tournament is structured is there are eight teams who play a round robin. The top two teams automatically qualify for the semifinals. Team USA would need to lose two games and likely lose a tiebreaker to not make the semifinals. Since they will be favored in both, we are looking at a parlay of two games at minus money for +250.
I'm sure this will have value once we see the lines for this game, and I'm willing to put money down with the skill of this team right now. Let's go for gold!
Bet: USA Basketball 3x3 Women's National Team to Win the Gold Medal, +250, .5u, DraftKings (bet down to +200)
