The Los Angeles Lakers fired Darvin Ham after a first-round exit and gave the job to former NBA player JJ Redick. They ignored Redick’s non-existent professional coaching history and bought into his immense knowledge of the game. It’s certainly a risky choice, but Redick is smart enough to deliver.
Keep reading for three changes that Redick should make to the Lakers, as well as whether it’s wise to bet on his Coach of the Year odds.
Modify Los Angeles’ Offensive Shot Profile
After getting hired to coach the Lakers, JJ Redick notoriously said, “I’m gonna use math.” While it’s unclear precisely what he means, the former NBA sharpshooter likely wants to emphasize shot quality by adjusting their shot profile.
The Lakers ranked 28th in 3-point attempt rate last season, and 47.7% of those triples were classified as wide open – the 20th-best mark.
Additionally, 5.6% of their possessions were tagged as either off-screens or handoffs. Only the Chicago Bulls produced a lower percentage.
Redick is a motion shooter at his basketball core, so he understands how distracting off-ball chaos can be to an NBA defense.
Tweaking D’Angelo Russell’s usage should be his first step. Russell has always received decent volume as an off-ball shooter, yet he’s mainly operated as a pick-and-roll orchestrator and self-created scorer throughout his career.
Moving the veteran into more of an off-ball role would funnel his touches into shots that have been very effective for him. Last regular season, Russell notched 1.25 points per catch-and-shoot jumper and 1.19 points per spot-up possession. Those marks ranked in the 86th and 89th percentile, respectively, according to Synergy Sports. And despite minimal off-screen volume, he performed at a high level when given the chance.
Austin Reaves can pick up the extra on-ball usage. He quietly thrived as a creator last year. Of the 46 players with at least 300 possessions as the pick-and-roll ball handler, Reaves finished 8th in points per pick-and-roll possession next to names like Tyrese Haliburton, Jalen Brunson, and CJ McCollum.
Meanwhile, 17th overall pick Dalton Knecht should also play a huge role in Redick’s regime. He was one of college basketball’s top scorers, especially as an outside shooting threat. Knecht is no stranger to using pin-downs and flare screens to get open, and I expect Redick to highlight his brilliance.
Increasing 3-point volume and off-ball movement will also create more space for LeBron James and Anthony Davis to attack the basket, thus enhancing the Lakers’ bread and butter. Essentially, Redick needs to optimize the supporting cast around his superstars.
Change Christian Wood’s Role
From 2021 to 2023, Christian Wood averaged 18.1 points, 8.9 rebounds, and two assists per game while shooting an excellent 57.8 effective field goal percentage. The majority of those minutes occurred on the bottom-dwelling Rockets, yet Wood legitimately played quality basketball.
He joined the Lakers last season and instantly transformed into an inefficient, ineffective bench player. Wood’s numbers from the previous three years were probably unsustainable and a little deceptive, but this plummet went beyond mere regression. Los Angeles’ coaching staff consistently used him in the wrong role and subsequently guided him to failure.
For example, Wood played center across the vast majority of his minutes during the three-year boom. He thrived as a mobile stretch-five who could roll into space, occasionally put the ball on the floor, and score via post-ups or isolation possessions. Now, it’s not like Wood could be compared to Chet Holmgren, but the UNLV product was an offensive plus and a formidable 3-point shooter.
However, the Lakers apparently viewed him as a forward, which is the position he played for the majority of his minutes. Unsurprisingly, the veteran struggled. First, he lost his mobility advantage now that forwards and not centers were marking him. Second, Wood operated more as an off-ball shooter relegated to the corner instead of the main screener. As a result, he lost pick-and-roll usage – the action that benefited his specific 3-point shooting and rolling strengths.
Here are examples of play type and shot location changes from the previous three years combined compared to his Lakers season:
- Dribble jumpers fell from 10.9% of his total field goal attempts to 4.2% last year.
- Corner triples increased from 15.5% of his total 3-point attempts to 23.6% last year.
- Spot-up possessions jumped from 19.8% of his total possessions to 33.8% last year.
- Roll man possessions decreased from 18.2% of his total possessions to 14% last year.
With Wood at power forward, Los Angeles received a diminished version of his offensive potential, and on-court production suffered. Check out the Lakers’ net rating last year when different combinations of big men shared the court per Cleaning the Glass.
- Wood + Jaxson Hayes together: -17.1 net rating across 272 possessions
- Wood + Anthony Davis together: +2.6 net rating across 718 possessions
- Wood without either: +10.1 net rating across 659 possessions
Redick needs to scrap the Jaxson Hayes pairing. It’s a bad theoretical idea that didn’t get any better in reality.
And while the Lakers won their minutes when Davis and Wood shared the court, the duo’s net rating became -7.8 when they played together without LeBron James.
Overall, Wood performs best as the sole big man and could potentially reach his 2021-2023 offensive heights if surrounded by the correct combinations. Defensive inconsistency concerns are valid – which is likely why Los Angeles frequently played him as a forward – but attaching his minutes to Jarred Vanderbilt and/or Rui Hachimura could be a potential fix. Those bigger forwards may be able to add needed weak-side rim protection.
Redick will have to wait to make any adjustments, though, because Wood is set to miss some time to start the season recovering from knee surgery.
Using LeBron James As The Screener
The Lakers can’t go wrong if James initiates the action from the top of the key because he’s still a dominant downhill creator. The majority of his possessions should come from this strategy, but it would be beneficial to give him more looks as the screener in the pick-and-roll.
James has the frame to legitimately wrench open angles on screens and pave lanes for the ball handler. He’s also arguably the best quick-decision passer in the NBA. As a short roller, James could orchestrate possessions from the heart of the defense, where he’s fully surrounded by potential passing lanes.
And if the defense doesn’t cut off a rolling James in time to encourage a pass… look out. It’s not easy to stop perhaps the greatest rim scorer ever, who has a relatively clean runway while catching the ball on the move toward the basket.
Where is Anthony Davis in all of this? Redick could take notes from Denver’s offense and use Davis in the dunker’s spot like Aaron Gordon. On the other hand, sending Davis to set an off-ball screen to potentially generate space for a shooter may be in the cards, too. However, it’s probably wise to mostly reserve the James-as-the-screener idea for non-Davis minutes.
When James did act as the roll man last year, he produced 1.27 points per possession. That figure was on par with bigs like Nikola Jokic, Chet Holmgren, and Jarrett Allen. Exploring this idea even further could be an excellent way for Redick to foster offensive versatility and desirable shot quality.
Should You Bet JJ Redick For Coach Of The Year?
Historically, new coaches need to dramatically increase their team’s wins from the previous season to claim the award. That’s a tough ask. The Lakers secured 47 wins last year, and it’s highly improbable that they sniff 57-60 wins this season. The Western Conference is a death trap, and Redick must contend with Davis’ health issues and James’ age-related minutes restrictions.
If Redick does completely enhance this team, then I expect it to manifest in a deep postseason run when the stars are locked and loaded – in other words, after voting for the award closes.
Even though he’s currently being offered at around 25-to-1 odds, it’s a pass to me. I simply don’t envision enough regular-season success and serious health risks are lurking.
