After a bold 2023 offseason in which the Boston Celtics acquired Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis, they cruised to a championship.
What lessons can be learned from Holiday’s seamless transition into his new role? And which veterans are poised to follow Holiday’s path and potentially make a similar impact?
How Jrue Holiday’s Role Changed
While on the Milwaukee Bucks, Jrue Holiday operated as the lead ball handler and playmaker for the offense. His responsibilities included key assignments like directing the half-court offense, orchestrating pick-and-rolls, and being a high-volume scorer.
Basketball Index’s metric total offensive load% is “an estimate of how much a player directly contributes to an individual possession through their shooting, creating, passing, and turning the ball over.” From the 2021 to 2023 seasons, Holiday ranked 56th, 35th, and 25th in the NBA (minimum 1000 minutes).
The Bucks managed to win a title with Holiday in this featured role during the 2021 season, but he was a bit underqualified for the position. The veteran is merely a good playmaker and a decent scorer. That’s not enough firepower to be a dynamic lead guard, and Holiday’s efficiency suffered because the role was too much to handle. Across 40 playoff games as a Buck, he shot 39.6% from the field and 30.4% on triples.
Boston didn’t need such usage with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, and Kristaps Porzingis on the roster. Holiday embraced the role change like a true professional and happily plummeted to 123rd in total offensive load%. As a result, he completely shined for the Celtics.
Holiday’s defense became even more stifling with less energy spent on the other end. He didn’t have to force possessions on offense as the creator and subsequently secured better-shot quality on his reduced attempts. For example, 41.2% of his jumpers were via catch-and-shoot looks – up from 22% in 2023.
Essentially, the veteran morphed from a miscast second option into an overqualified fourth or even fifth option, and it completely changed his game and new team for the better. Which players could follow Holiday’s footsteps this season by scaling down into an elite complementary piece?
3 Veterans Who Could Follow Jrue Holiday’s Path
These three players are major championship X Factors if they reduce or tweak their offensive load and roles.
Kyle Kuzma
Since joining Washington, Kyle Kuzma has been like the best middle school player at recess. He’s putting up shots to his heart’s desire and playing an unserious brand of basketball without any regard for discipline or team success.
Kuzma ranked 13th in field goal attempts per game and 31st in total offensive load% last season. Check out his production in skills and roles that are best reserved for the stars, per Synergy Sports:
- 25th percentile in points per isolation possession
- 28th percentile in points per dribble jumper
- 43rd percentile in points per possession as the pick-and-roll ball handler
In other words, the Wizards forward is a quality role player masquerading as an All-Star. Under no circumstance should he average more shots per game than Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, and Nikola Jokic.
Kuzma cannot be a key championship piece with this usage, but what about a scaled-down version of him? Absolutely.
He finished in the 78th percentile in points per unguarded catch-and-shoot jumper last season. The problem was that he often settled for guarded shots and didn’t have other stars to draw defensive attention. Kuzma would be an effective off-ball shooter next to legit top options if his shot profile was revamped.
And I’m not saying that Kuzma must have no creation responsibilities. Part of being a great role player involves seizing opportunities and attacking a scrambling defense off the dribble. But self-creation should be a small part of his diet – not the biggest slice.
Defensively, the traits are there, and his Lakers days showed that the production could be there as well. Is he mentally committed to spending tremendous energy on getting stops and doing the dirty work, though? That’s a huge hurdle that Kuzma needs to overcome if a contender poaches him.
Overall, Kuzma has it in him to be a championship-caliber role player, but he must willingly accept this role first. Should the veteran follow Jrue Holiday’s path and agree to scale down individual glory for team success, then plenty of contenders will be asking Washington about a trade. His contract is relatively cheap and moveable.
Mikal Bridges
Mikal Bridges operated as a phenomenal 3-and-D piece who occasionally made plays for the Suns. When Phoenix sent him to Brooklyn in the Kevin Durant trade, Bridges immediately became the Nets’ top offensive option – a situation beyond his capabilities.
He was 36th in field goal attempts per game and 62nd in total offensive load% last season. Just like Kuzma, Bridges struggled to handle the star roles.
- 23rd percentile in points per isolation possession
- 49th percentile in points per dribble jumper
- 51st percentile in points per possession as the pick-and-roll ball handler
The Villanova product isn't able to be the first or second option on a title team because his playmaking and shot-making are not advanced enough. However, he’s still a strong offensive cog and optimally would fluctuate between the third and fourth option. This reduced burden ideally helps him return to All-Defensive standards as well.
New York traded an immense haul of draft capital to snag Bridges’ perfect form: a defensive menace on the wing who knocks down triples and frequently puts the ball on the floor for a bucket. That’s the kind of player that can help the Knicks win a chip. If Bridges strikes a balance between his Suns and Nets days, then he will be worth the acquisition cost.
The early returns are somewhat concerning though. Bridges tweaked the release on his shot this summer, and it looks slower and less accurate. He went 2-for-19 from 3-point range in the preseason. It’s probably not a long-term issue, but Knicks fans cannot be feeling comfortable right now.
Paul George
Paul George is still a phenomenal basketball player and should command a huge offensive role. It’s undeniable that he’s recently struggled to create shots and get to the rim against elite defenses, though. Last postseason was a prime example. The Clipper scored 19.5 points per game while only averaging 2.3 restricted area shots per game and shooting 36.2% on pull-up jumpers.
George no longer has the burst to be a top playoff scorer. Fortunately, Philadelphia doesn’t need him to be the first or second option like Los Angeles did.
Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey are a great two-man combo who can lead the 76ers’ offense in both the scoring and playmaking departments. What does that mean for George? He has the opportunity to play to his strengths.
The veteran shot a scorching 64.5 effective field goal percentage on catch-and-shoot jumpers last season. That’s his ideal shot. Ramping up George’s off-ball usage is a wise idea, especially since Embiid and Maxey exert so much gravitational force.
Now, the former All-Star still must be active as an on-ball scorer because Philly needs a third creator. Letting him pick his spots and attack mismatches instead of being forced to be the table-setter is a huge distinction, though.
If George buys into the “third guy” role and sacrifices numerous shots and on-ball possessions per game while increasing his defensive intensity, then the 76ers may make a very deep postseason run. That’s not always easy for a player with his resume and pedigree.
Championship Odds Ramifications
The Knicks and 76ers respectively own the third and fourth shortest championship odds. Assuming Bridges and George both pan out, which team is the better value bet?
To me, it’s New York. They are the scarier defensive team, have fewer injury concerns, and feature more playoff-starter-caliber players. Boston also remains the top Eastern Conference threat, and the Knicks’ roster is more equipped to take them down than Philadelphia’s.
If the 76ers pair K.J. Martin’s contract with draft capital to trade for an impact player, then the conversation may take a different turn.
