The NBA Draft is here, and that means poring over countless mock drafts and reading all the intel to get the right bets in.
This is an especially tricky draft and one of the weakest draft classes in years, but all that uncertainty creates value for bettors. I'm never looking to bet on median outcomes (like over/unders) in such a wide-open draft setting, but it's a great opportunity to nibble on some long shots for guys I love.
It can be flawed to use your own scouting report to bet the top of the draft — that's what the intel and mock drafts are for — but identifying sleepers with value and upside later can help direct us toward a few long shots worth betting at long odds too.
Below are five sleepers I've got much higher than consensus, with the first four all top 12 on my board, and how I'm nibbling some long shot prices to have a little fun with guys I love on draft night.
Carlton 'Bub' Carrington
Guard
Carrington has been one of the hottest names in the lead-up to the draft.
He's one of the youngest players in the draft and won't even turn 19 until after Draft Day, and this was his first year running point guard. That's why it was so impressive how natural he looked running the offense and navigating pick-and-roll coverage, especially considering how strongly he closed the season.
Carrington has a great feel for the game on offense and a really promising shot. That pull-up jumper is wet, and every team needs a guy that can get and hit his own shot. Add in great size for a guard after an eight-inch high-school growth spurt and you see the framework for a young player with a ton of upside if things continue to click. We saw a similar late rise for San Antonio's Malaki Branham a couple years ago.
Carrington has a lot of skill overlap with Rob Dillingham, a more well-known prospect whose stock seems to be dropping, and he's much bigger with a more rounded game and more natural feel. Dillingham is still mocked at No. 8 by Givony and top 10 or 11 in most. Could Bub pull ahead of Dillingham and sneak into the top 10?
Oklahoma City as No. 12 has been a popular landing spot for Carrington in mocks by Vecenie, Peek, Drubel, and others. That checks out for a team that just traded a guard and that loves long athletic dudes that are super young and ready to be developed as a dribble-pass-shoot prospect.
Carrington's ceiling may be No. 12 to OKC, but that's a team with picks to move up to secure a guy they love, and there's always the chance he sneaks ahead of Dillingham into the top 10.
BET: Carrington top-10 pick +2500 (Caesars), Carrington No. 12 pick +800 (FanDuel)
Ryan Dunn
Forward
Dunn is one of the best wing defender prospects I've ever evaluated.
Turn on a Virginia game this year and Dunn absolutely leaps off the screen. He's 6-foot-7 with a 7-foot-2 wingspan, and his defense pops instantly. He's always in the right spot and has an incredible feel for things on that end of the floor, which makes him a superb team defender, the type that elevates everyone else around him.
He's also a great one-on-one defender with wing shut-down upside, and he's a terrific defensive playmaker as well. Dunn averaged 2.3 blocks and 1.3 steals at Virginia, a school with notoriously low stock numbers for its players because of its conservative scheme.
The problem is that Dunn is a bit older and is almost just as terrible offensively as he is elite in defense. He regressed as this season went on and was straight up afraid to dribble or shoot at times, and defense isn't valuable on the bench. Dunn is a smart cutter and the shot shows some promise, but he won't find an NBA role if he remains so unwilling to even try to shoot.
An NBA team should take the risk. A defender this great becomes an incredibly valuable player in a hurry if he can find even the most basic of offensive roles, and we're seeing more guys like Herb Jones, Peyton Watson, and Gary Payton II find just enough offense next to offensive stars to stay on the court and shine on D.
Dunn is -200 to go in the first round (bet365) and is a very popular mock draft target for one of those Knicks picks at No. 24 or No. 25, and he's No. 22 for Givony. I'm not interested in the -200, but I'm always willing to take a risk on a defender with this much ability and maybe an NBA team will be, too.
BET: Dunn top-20 pick +1000 (FanDuel)
Zach Edey
Center
Chances are you already know plenty about Edey after a couple magnificent college seasons.
Edey is an absolute giant at 7-foot-5 with a near 8-foot wingspan. To put that into perspective, Rudy Gobert is 7-foot-1 with a 7-foot-8 wingspan. Edey dwarfs the competition, even making the gigantic Donovan Clingan look normal-sized in the NCAA championship game.
Edey led Purdue there, of course, and he was outstanding all season and all tournament. He's a beast in the post with a soft touch at the rim, and he's an elite rebounder and outstanding finisher. He's also a foul-drawing magnet and can actually hit free throws, and he sets outstanding screens.
There are obvious limitations for a player this big. He's limiting on offense and won't be useful in some matchups or maybe late in the playoff rounds, and Edey will need to play drop defense and will have trouble in space with his slow-twitch reflexes.
But I wonder if folks are focusing too much on what isn't there instead of appreciating what is. Edey has been a hard worker and winner at every level, overcoming every obstacle, and he is maybe the best collegiate player this century. That gives him a very high floor as a prospect and clear NBA value, even if it ends up being mostly in the regular season. Regular season has value too! And what if Edey continues to improve?
Edey is No. 9 for Drubel's mock, No. 11 for Vecenie. He makes sense for a few teams near the top if they miss out on Clingan or if, like me, they just prefer Edey anyway. In such a weak draft, why not just roll with a guy that's been by far the best of all these players?
BET: Edey top-10 pick +750 (Caesars)
Bobi Klintman
Forward
I'm late to Klintman, but he looks like the exact sort of upside swing teams should be taking in a weak draft.
Klintman is Swedish-Senegalese, a late bloomer who grew up playing soccer before growing to 6-foot-10. You love a multi-sport athlete in the modern game, with the ability to bring some of those skills from other sports to the table, and you see Klintman's fluid, natural athleticism in his game.
The skill pops, especially for a guy Klintman's size. He has an easy dribble and a comfortable, clean shot, and he's clearly very comfortable with the ball in his hands and shows some real creation upside too. There's not a ton of data on the shot, but the 3-point ball should come, and Klintman can finish above the rim too. Add in defensive upside as a playmaker and athleticism with size on the wing, and there's a ton to like.
There's no doubt Klintman is a project, but I think he's the upside wing teams should be looking at after the top names are off the board, not Tidjane Salaun.
Klintman is mocked as high as No. 23 to O'Conner and No. 29 to Kalbrosky and is now as high as No. 32 to Givony. He's +110 to sneak into the first round and that's probably his ceiling, though you can nibble +1500 to break into the top 20 if you believe.
BET: Klintman first-round pick +110 (DraftKings), top-20 pick +1500 (FanDuel)
Adem Bona
Center
Bona was considered a likely first-round pick before the season but had a quieter year with a UCLA program that never really found its footing. But he had an outstanding Combine and has reportedly performed very well in interviews, and it seems now that he might end up in that first round after all.
Bona is 6-foot-10 with a huge wingspan and a 9-foot standing reach, giving him ideal size for a modern center. He has a great frame and tested with outstanding Combine numbers across the board for a player his size.
You're drafting Bona for defense. He has huge defensive potential, with terrific rim protection and outstanding anticipation so his positioning is good, and his athleticism and quickness make him at least viable to hang with smaller, quicker players on the perimeter. Bona also plays with a high motor at all times and uses his frame well, so that alone gives him a clear pathway to playing time.
There's not much there offensively. Bona can be a lob threat and play in the dunker spot as a play finisher, and there probably won't be much else. Think something like a developmental Clint Capela type prospect.
Givony has Bona No. 31 in his latest mock. Can we push him one spot further?
