76ers at Bucks Picks, Betting Odds & Predictions
- Spread: Bucks -9
- Over/Under: 227
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: TNT
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Tonight brings another glimpse into what could be this year's Eastern Conference Finals battle between Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks vs. Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid and the 76ers.
The Bucks are huge favorites in this one, but should the line be this high? Our experts break down this matchup.
Betting Trends to Know
The Bucks have done well in this spot this year, going 14-12 ATS at home, including 10-6 ATS in home conference games. The Sixers, meanwhile, continue to struggle on the road, going 8-18-1 ATS in that spot, including 5-14-1 ATS in road conference games.
Wob: Time to Buy Low on the 76ers?
The 76ers are in a tailspin: Their head coach is on the chopping block, Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid can’t play together all of a sudden, Al Horford plays well only when the team’s best player isn’t on the floor and half of the bench just got traded and won’t be in uniform tonight — there are plenty of reasons to sound the alarms in Philadelphia.
But I’m here to tell you this all is just a false alarm. This team has every tool necessary to make a championship run, no matter where they finish the regular season. I say these words with all sincerity. The reasoning for this will be on display tonight, as they are the only roster constructed to slow down the war machine/assembly line of buckets that is the Milwaukee Bucks.
What prevented the Bucks from making the Finals last year? Length, wingspans, athleticism and a defensive philosophy of using these assets to funnel Giannis Antetokounmpo into the paint where an army of redwood trees awaits him. Make him shoot long 3s or enter Fangorn Forest, where Embiid and Horford await.
Ben Simmons might be the only human on Earth not named Kawhi Leonard capable of doing this throughout a 48-minute contest. Giannis did not like his fire being matched with fire, and Simmons undoubtedly wields the same flame as the Raptors did before him.
As for tonight, the trade deadline has passed. While 76ers fans are probably distraught they didn’t make any moves to improve the team on paper, you have to think there is some settling throughout the minds of the players knowing these are the guys they’re going into the trenches with no matter what. A “water under the bridge; let’s get to work” scenario.
The 76ers have shown up and defended their championship hype on national television all season long. The Celtics three times, the Lakers, the Bucks on Christmas Day. Once can be considered a fluke; five times is a trend.
The Sixers show up when it matters most, and they will again tonight. And even if they don’t win straight-up, they’re catching nine points. NINE! Say no more. The road struggles mean nothing to me when the game atmosphere will be of this magnitude. Standard regular-season away games are a different sport compared to these type of contests.
It’s time for the 76ers to flex and show the world why, despite all of the chaos, they’re still one of the favorites on the board to win the NBA Championship. It starts tonight in Milwaukee.
Matt Moore: How I'm Betting Tonight's Game
I whiffed on this on Christmas, taking the Bucks, and I’m going back to the well. Milwaukee should win this with math. The Bucks give up a lot of 3s to a team short on shooting; the Sixers are good defending the 3, but Milwaukee should still be able to generate enough.
The Bucks’ interior defense has enough size and should be able to throw better doubles at Joel Embiid.
Embiid dominated on Christmas, but he doesn’t have a history of sticking to those trends. The Bucks have won 11 of 12 and 16 of 18, so it’s not like they’re coming in at a bad time.
I get it … double digits is a lot. But I’ll lay the points.
Bryan Mears: What the Betting Market Is Saying
Bettors have been absolutely hammering this game all day, though you wouldn't notice if you just looked at opening and current numbers. We first tracked a steam move on the Sixers at +9.5 after opening at 9.
Since then, we've tracked three more steam moves on the Sixers at +9 (twice) and +8.5. But then bettors bought back the other side: We tracked on a steam move on the Bucks at -8, pushing it back to the opening number of 9.
The public is definitely on the Bucks, who are getting 72% of the bets and 76% of the money, so it's unlikely this will really come down too much.
Interestingly, the over/under hasn't budged either. We tracked one steam move on the under at 227.5 and then the over at 226.5.
The public is on the over here, which is getting 83% of the bets and 78% of the money wagered.
All in all, the sharp sides seem to be on the Sixers and under; even though the line sits at the opening number, that's notable in itself given the sheer volume of bets on the other side by the public.
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.
