The most hyped prospect in a generation, Victor Wembanyama, is set to make his San Antonio Spurs debut in preseason action vs. former No. 2 overall pick Chet Holmgren and the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday.
For a preseason game, Monday night stands as the potential beginning of a new era in the NBA. Wembanyama and Holmgren are both 7-footers (Wembanyama 3 inches taller) with guard skills and impossible wing spans. They both spark questions about their durability and ability to handle the physicality off the NBA. And they will face off in the Western Conference for years to come, granting health.
Wembanyama was the most lauded and pursued prospect since Anthony Davis, with San Antonio landing what appears to be another generational big man.
But it's easy to forget how hyped Holmgren was before he missed last season with a foot injury (igniting a lot of concerns; the history of big men with foot injuries is not promising). Holmgren was a standout at Gonzaga and in discussion for the No. 1 pick (which the Orlando Magic eventually used on Paolo Banchero).
The Thunder were dialed in on Holmgren from the start of 2021-22. Multiple sources confirmed that, while OKC is maybe the most rigorous team in their evaluation process, the Thunder were locked in on Holmgren as their top prospect as early as November of that season. There was never any serious question of them opting for third-overall pick Jabari Smith or Banchero if he'd fallen. Holmgren was their guy.
Both players present another attempt to challenge traditional big-man archetypes. They aren't the first bigs with what feels like infinite wing spans and slight builds combined with guard talents to challenge the league. You have to rifle through NBA history but you can find players from Manute Bol to Kristaps Porzingis to Channing Frye to Andrea Bargnani and Brad Lohaus bringing the kinds of potential that Holmgren and Wembanyama are looking to fulfill.
In the history of the NBA, there have been 108 players who were listed at 7-1 or taller, per Basketball Reference. Only 35 have played more than 328 games (four full seasons' worth). Advancements in athlete medical science and the de-escalation of physicality in the league give these two a better chance than ever. But as high as the potential is for both players, there's always the concern that the hype will exceed the reality.
"With both guys, I worry that we've seen how often bigs that play like guards can struggle," one personnel executive told Action Network this weekend. "They're both in spots with such great coaching, and that should help. But there are some things, like having a high handle because of your height and needing to have the core strength to finish through contact, that just are always going to be difficult."
On the other hand, scouts suggested both players are likely to be more impactful defensively than people expect.
"We're all kind of interested to see what this looks like. They're not traditional big men, but they have such great defensive instincts," one scout said.
"Don't sleep on what Holmgren can do defensively," one scout replied when I asked about Holmgren's impact. "That kid came out of the womb swatting shots. His weakside rim protection is going to be elite."
"The biggest advantage defensively you can have is when guards are scared to drive because of a shot blocker," one former coach told Action Network. "It's why Rudy Gobert is so underrated. Even if (Wembanyama and Holmgren) struggle in the block vs. guys like Jokic — who everyone struggles with– or Vucevic, just having guys who deter drives makes life easier for your perimeter guys."
The question marks come more on the offensive side for league personnel.
"I think Holmgren will be way ahead of Wembanyama early on offensively. He's spent a full year with OKC in strength and conditioning, and he's got Shai [Gilgeous-Alexander] to set him up for pick-and-pop 3s. I think the Spurs are going to have spacing issues with Wembanyama on the floor, which will make it tougher on him to create," one scout said.
We saw some of those problems in Summer League in Wembanyama's first game. With San Antonio unable to space the floor, the Charlotte Hornets, a truly dreadful summer league squad, packed the paint and sent help at Wembanyama on isolation drives, forcing clunky possessions. That's summer league, but San Antonio still has a lot of spacing concerns headed into this season.
That said, Wembanyama bounced back in his second summer league game. That was a similar trope among league personnel when it came to offensive production for the star duo.
"Look, it's not always going to look great and there will be bad nights, those guys are super young," a long-time personnel evaluator remarked. "But when you look at their respective histories in organized ball, they still find ways to get put-backs, catch-and-shoot, different looks. Those guys are too good for them to be empty-minutes guys long-term."
The expectations are wildly different for the two. Wembanyama is going to be given all the time in the world to live up to his potential, and San Antonio has both chosen a long-term approach and has the draft capital and market to manage expectations and play the long game. Oklahoma City is patient to almost a stubborn fault, but this season they have so much talent, with Gilgeous-Alexander finishing fifth in MVP voting. Holmgren, whether the Thunder want it or not, is largely expected to be a key missing piece to vault them into playoff contention.
Holmgren still looked slight at Summer League, but at media day, he's listed at 208 pounds, up from 198 at media day the year before. It's still behind where he'll eventually have to be, but it's a start. The challenge, as always, is keeping players with both Holmgren and Wembanyama's dimensions healthy while adding muscle weight.
There's a lot to learn about both players, but Monday presents our first look at understanding if these two are set to transform the league or stand as another reminder of why big men with guard skills so rarely find success in the Association.
BETTING ANGLE
Wembanyama is predictably the favorite to win Rookie of the Year at FanDuel with +130 odds (sign up today with FanDuel promo code to get $200 in bonus bets) while Holmgren is third in the odds behind Scoot Henderson at +310. We broke down what we think the best plays for Rookie of the Year are on our Buckets podcast:
While I think preseason presents good information for bettors relative to its perceived irrelevance, watch the market if it overreacts to Monday night's preseason tilt and be ready to bet in a different direction. If Wembanyama struggles and the odds adjust, that's a good buy opportunity. If both players shine and the market moves, find other long shots to play.
Be sure to check out Action Network's sportsbook reviews to see which books offer the best pricing edges for the coming NBA season!
More Stories from Action NBA
