I warned everyone beforehand that I would be near dormant this entire series, and degenerates everywhere are once again going to be disappointed. Not even a lean on the spread. I’m just the worst.
I think this number (the Warriors are 7.5-point favorites as of Friday evening) is excellent. It’s basically what I thought the number would be. It’s basically what I thought the number should be. Yes, I think Golden State wins the game a high percentage of the time, but of course that is reflected in the moneyline for each team.
Where is the edge? You want to back Houston off its A++ game, now traveling to a face a team with a significant home-court advantage? You want to back Golden State already getting a ton of credit and with Stephen Curry clearly not 100% (and the team needing at least two of Curry/Kevin Durant/Klay Thompson to score significantly to win any game this series?) Again, not a lot to like.
OK, fine, you want a lean? The total has stayed in the same range throughout the series, hovering between 225 and 226.5 in all three games. Following Houston's strong offensive output in Game 2, which should regress a little, and with the possibility that the well-rested Warriors may give you one of their classic defensive performances, of which there have been a couple in the playoffs already, I'll lean under at 226.5. A strong defensive showing from Golden State is seemingly more likely than in most other times this postseason.
