The Cleveland Cavaliers defeated the Boston Celtics, 109-99, on Friday in Game 6 to even the series. LeBron James led the way with 46 points, 11 rebounds and nine assists.
Game 7 is Sunday in Boston (8:30 p.m. ET). The Celtics opened as 2.5-point favorites with a game total of 201.5. At the time of publication, 66% of spread tickets are on the road underdog.
The Cavs have the momentum after forcing the winner-take-all showdown, but the Celtics have home-court advantage. Which team is offering bettors value?
Using the Bet Labs software, here are Game 7 trends since 2005:
Game 7 Betting Trends
Since 2005, there have been 42 previous Game 7s. Home teams won 71% of these series-deciding games. Home-court advantage has also provided value with the hosting team going 24-18 (57%) ATS.
Fatigue is an issue in the NBA Playoffs that bettors can exploit. Late in a playoff series (Games 6 and 7), it has been profitable to bet the under (92-66, 58%). The Celtics-Cavs total opened at 201.5 and has been bet down to 200.5.
The Celtics have to like their chances as the home team has won every game in this series and history is on Boston’s side. Despite a majority of bets on the Cavaliers, the Celtics are receiving a greater percentage of spread dollars. Since 2016, when more money is on the favorite than spread tickets, the chalk has gone 83-45-1 (65%) ATS. My early lean is Celtics to cover, what is your favorite play in Game 7?
