While we don’t have public bet percentages on specific player props, we do have them for the spreads and over/unders of each game. By identifying discrepancies between the percentage of betting tickets and percentage of money in a particular game, we can find situations where the books may be undervaluing teams, and by relation, players, in certain spots.
With that in mind, here are three props from Friday night’s ESPN/ESPN2 slate that are worth considering:
- John Wall over/under 10.5 assists (vs. TOR) — 8 p.m. ET
- Al Horford over/under 2.5 free throws made (@ MIL) — 9:30 p.m. ET
- Eric Bledsoe over/under 5.5 assists (vs. BOS) — 9: 30 p.m. ET
All lines accurate as of 5:30 p.m. ET on Friday, April 20.
Wizards G John Wall Over 10.5 Assists vs. Raptors (-115)
8 p.m. ET | ESPN2
Wall has dropped 11-plus dimes in six of his past nine games and has averaged 11.3 over 17 combined regular-season and postseason games since Jan. 1. There's more than a 25% difference between the percentage of money and tickets on the over in this game as of this writing, which means the books could be undervaluing the offenses in this matchup. Per NBA Stats, Wall's 90.2 touches per game through two playoff games represent an increase of 9.4 per game over his regular-season average, and those extra touches should afford him the opportunity to top 10 assists for the seventh time in his past 10 games.
Celtics PF/C Al Horford Under 2.5 Free Throws at Bucks (-115)
9:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Whereas there's more money than tickets on the over in Wizards-Raptors, there's more money than tickets on the under in Celtics-Bucks. And even with playoff minutes in effect, 2.5 free throw makes is a high prop for a player who averaged 1.3 per game during the regular season. Of course, it's probably inflated because Horford made 13 free throws in Game 1, but he followed up that outlier with one make on two attempts in Game 2. He's failed to make three or more from the line in four of six games against the Bucks this season despite playing at least 33 minutes each time.
Bucks PG Eric Bledsoe Under 5.5 Assists vs. Celtics (-143)
9:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Bledsoe has faced the Celtics three times now in April, and he handed out exactly four assists in each game despite playing more than 32 minutes each time. That shouldn't come as a surprise: Boston finished the regular season ranked fourth in fewest assists per game allowed (21.3). And Bledsoe failed to top four assists in either of the two playoff games despite his team shooting 53.8% from the field, which is the best mark in the playoffs going into Friday's games. With the smart money on the under in this game and Bledsoe struggling to put crooked numbers in the assist column, I have no problem with laying -143 on the under for this prop.
Pictured above: Eric Bledsoe
Photo credit: Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports
