This article offers data-driven analysis on notable NBA player prop bets, often incorporating The Action Network’s public betting data along with the tools at FantasyLabs and Sports Insights.
Wednesday’s analysis will cover the following three props for Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals featuring the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets beginning at 9 p.m. ET:
- Clint Capela (Houston) over/under 12.5 points
- Stephen Curry (Golden State) over/under 26.5 points
- Eric Gordon (Houston) over/under 15.5 points
Looking for more props? Check out the FantasyLabs NBA Player Props tool.
Clint Capela Under 12.5 Points (+110)
9 p.m. ET | TNT
Capela has seen his role wane as this series has progressed, with both teams showing a commitment to play small. He’s played 24 minutes or fewer in each of the past two games, and has cracked the 12.5-point barrier in just one of his past seven contests. The fact that we’re getting better than even money with this prop is extremely enticing.
Stephen Curry Over 26.5 Points (-114)
9 p.m. ET | TNT
Curry has not exactly looked like himself this series, shooting just 45.8% from the field and 34.2% from 3 through four games. However, there is reason to believe he’s in line for positive regression: 39.5% of his 3-point shots during this series have been classified as “open” or “wide open,” per NBA.com, which is only a slight decrease from his regular-season average of 47%. The big difference has been that Curry has only made 34.2% of those shots in the series compared to 44.9% during the regular season. Curry is one of the best shooters in the history of the league, so eventually those shots will start falling again. He’s been rounding back into form as of late and eclipsed the 26.5-point mark in each of his past two games.
Eric Gordon Over 15.5 Points (-115)
9 p.m. ET | TNT
Gordon has seen an uptick in playing time in this series, averaging 33.1 minutes per game. He’s failed exceed 15 points in three of four games, but posted 20.8 points per 36 minutes during the regular season, and his lack of points in this series hasn’t been due to a lack of opportunities: He’s averaging a usage rate of 23.2% in this series. The issue has been his 40% shooting clip, but the potential is there for him to breeze over 15.5 points if his shot starts falling again back at home.
All lines accurate as of 6:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, May 24.
