Wednesday's NBA slate is huge with 10 games on the schedule in the middle of the week and two games on national TV: Hawks vs. Pelicans (7 p.m. ET on ESPN) and Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers (10 p.m. ET).
Both games are among the four matchups that our NBA analysts are betting today along with two prop picks in another pair of games. You can see how our crew is betting the slate below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Miami Heat vs. Brooklyn Nets
Roberto Arguello: I wrote more about this game in depth, but I'll sum up my thoughts here. While I like the Heat’s side tonight, I believe there is even better value on the board with props.
Kyle Lowry’s addition to the Heat as a point-of-attack defender has allowed the Heat to play more drop defense and prevent themselves from over-switching — like they did much of last season. This is significant because it allows Adebayo to stay close to the basket, contest more shots and grab more rebounds.
Last season, Adebayo grabbed 9.0 rebounds per game, but now that he is closer to the basket defensively, he has grabbed 14.0 rebounds per game (this is a small sample size, but he has grabbed at least 13 boards in each game).
DraftKings currently has Adebayo's rebounding line at 9.5, and I absolutely love this bet with value up to over 11 rebounds at -110 or better for one unit.
If this isn’t available on your book, I also love the value of Adebayo’s Points + Rebounds over 26.5 at -105 on DraftKings, with value at -110 or better up to 28.5.
Atlanta Hawks vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Raheem Palmer: Unders are 32-22 (59.3%) this season and a big reason for that is the way fouls are being officiated this season. Trae Young is getting to the line just 5.3 times per game compared to his 8.7 and 9.3 attempts the previous two seasons.
The real edge in this matchup lies with the Hawks' defense against the Pelicans' offense. The absence of Zion Williamson has been catastrophic for the Pelicans — they scored 116.8 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor vs. 110.2 with him off (+6.6) last season. The Hawks sport the league's third-best Defensive Rating (95.5) and they'll be facing a Pelicans team that ranks 28th in Offensive Rating (96.9) this season.
Although Brandon Ingram is averaging 27 points, 7.5 rebounds and 4.8 assists, he's only taking 2.8 free throw attempts per game and shooting five 3s per game. The majority of his field goal attempts are coming in the midrange and he simply doesn't have the shot profile you'd like in the modern NBA.
This number got steamed from the opener at 222, so much of the value has been sucked away from this line, however looking at these two teams I'm not seeing a high scoring matchup. I like this down to 219.
Kings vs. Phoenix Suns
Brandon Anderson: When it comes to the NBA's sophomores, everyone is focused on last season's two flashiest stars, and that's fair enough. LaMelo Ball and Anthony Edwards certainly look like the real deal, and they deserve their flowers. But I'm still loving what I'm seeing from Tyrese Haliburton out in Sacramento.
He's not nearly as flashy and will probably never be a big scorer, but Haliburton just does the little things that helps his team win. That intelligence and decision-making ability help Haliburton rack up a lot of assist opportunities, and that's the angle we're playing tonight.
Haliburton had a quiet season opener, with just two points and four assists, but he's looked himself in the last two games. He had 15/6 against the UtahJazz and 8/7/9 against the Golden State Warriors. He's averaging 6.3 assists per game on the season, with an assist every 5.45 minutes.
I can't believe we're getting significant plus juice here. I think this line should be a full assist higher, and that's about where we are projecting Haliburton, at 5.6 assists. I'll play the over 4.5 at any plus number or down to -115.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Kenny Ducey: The Grizzlies and Trail Blazers have certainly earned the highest total on the slate, and I’m still not convinced 234 is a high enough number to keep me off the over.
We first have to consider the fact that these two teams are struggling to defend. The Trail Blazers had the third-worst Defensive Rating a year ago, and the Grizzlies have fallen off the stout pace they set for themselves in 2020-21 with a bad start this season. Memphis has allowed its opponents to shoot 40.4% from deep through three games this year, and has allowed the most points per 100 possessions in basketball.
The Trail Blazers certainly can’t be shooting any worse from behind the arc right now, and might find some success from deep due to some poor defending and some positive regression to the mean. Damian Lillard is not a guy who will shoot 8.3% on his looks from downtown all season long.
Portland is also atop the league in Pace so far, and Memphis isn’t too far behind in a tie for 13th. The Grizzlies were great in transition down the stretch last season and ranked in the top 10 in Pace after the All-Star break.
In the end, I think the combination of the league’s most efficient offense and most inefficient defense playing the team that leads the NBA in pace should push this total up very high.
