Heat vs. Nuggets Game 1 Odds
| Nuggets | -8.5 (-115) |
| Heat | +8.5 (-105) |
| Total | 218.5 (-110 / -110) |
| Date | Thursday, June 1 |
| Time | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
*Odds via BetMGM as of Thursday afternoon.
The NBA Finals tip off tonight with Game 1 between the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets.
The Heat are massive underdogs in the series (+310 at BetMGM) and all of the talk surrounding the NBA Finals tends to be about two-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic. Bam Adebayo will be the man attempting to slow him down, which means Adebayo's defensive responsibility will be just as big as his offensive responsibility.
Adebayo will be massive to the Heat's success and our algorithm believes he could get off to a hot start in Game 1.
Our algorithm has identified an edge on an Adebayo player prop tonight at BetMGM. The prognostication expects Adebayo to outperform his expected total in points, rebounds and assists.
It's a bet on the over.
Our models considered quantitative and qualitative factors for every angle of this game — including rest, matchups, stylistic differences, lingering injuries, history and more — to come up with a fair value line for every NBA player prop on the market.
Bam Adebayo Player Prop Prediction, Projection
The algorithms expect Adebayo to outperform his total for points, rebounds and assists tonight.
The models think Adebayo's PRA total for Game 1 is way too low. BetMGM has set Adebayo's PRA total at 29.5 with -110 odds on the over and a -120 price on the under.
Adebayo will have to grab rebounds over Jokic if the Heat want to generate more offensive scoring chances than the Nuggets. Through 17 games in the playoffs, Adebayo is averaging 31.6 points, rebounds and assists per game.
The Heat have won all three Game 1s, each on the road, during this playoff run. In those three games, Abedayo has averaged 32.3 points, rebounds and assists.
Our algorithms like the matchup against the Nuggets and predict Adebayo will total 35.4 points, rebounds and assists tonight. That's good enough for a 31% edge on his PRA total.
Do keep in mind that these algorithms work best when you wager with the same size unit for each individual bet.
Pick: Bam Adebayo Over 29.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110)
