Most improved player is one of my favorite awards to analyze, which is why I've written about it three separate times over the past year or so. On Medium, I covered how the award winners have shifted since 2012, in February how Maxey's all star case made him the surefire bet for the award, and the different types of candidates for MIP after this past season. So instead of rehashing those, I want to focus more on the best candidates this year.
Second Year Players
Every year, we see second year players with shorter odds to win this award. This year is no exception, as Victor Wembanyama is the favorite at many books, and Brandin Podziemski, Keyonte George, Chet Holmgren, Scoot Henderson, Derrick Lively, and Amen Thompson all are between +3000 and +6000. Wemby in particular is rough, as we all expect him to take a leap, but voters are almost certainly not going to give him the award.
If you are looking for a Wemby historical comp, no player is better for their second season than Luka Doncic. Luka was coming off being rookie of the year and averaging 21.2 ppg (Wemby averaged 21.4). He was similarly being talked about as the next superstar NBA player. He took a tremendous leap in his second season, averaging 28.8 ppg, finishing 4th in MVP voting and making all NBA first team. If anyone would have won in that situation, it would have been him, as it's hard to take more of a leap from great to superstar in your second season.
Yet, Luka finished third behind Brandon Ingram and Bam Adebayo. Both Ingram and Bam had lower scoring increases, but were seen as more surprising leaps. We saw the same thing with Durant in 2009 (finished 3rd in MIP) and LeBron in 2005 (6th in MVP and 6th in MIP).
Voters did give it to Ja Morant 2 years after winning rookie of the year, but that may be more of an anomaly. A second year leap is expected from the Rookie of the Year, and we aren't going to reward them with an MIP.
Instead of starting off our search with players, I wanted to start it off with teams, because opportunity is such an important qualifier. I went through the NBA, and crossed off every team that has two established superstar scorers, didn't have a decent scorer leave the team (10+ ppg), and seems extremely unlikely to win 34+ games. This left me with 6 teams that strongly met the criteria, and then four other question mark teams for various reasons.
Atlanta Hawks
Win Total: 35.5
Players who left 10+ points: Dejounte Murray (22.5 ppg), Saddiq Bey (13.7)
Candidates: Jalen Johnson, De'Andre Hunter, Onyeka Okongwu
No team lost more scoring from 10+ ppg scorers than the Atlanta Hawks, trading away Dejounte Murray and Saddiq Bey signing with the Wizards. If they are going to be good, someone else is going to need to pick up the slack. Okongwu is not a guaranteed starter, and have a good idea of Hunter's ceiling. But Jalen Johnson is entering his fourth season, already took a mini leap last year, and is the best chance on this roster to grow.
Chicago Bulls
Win Total: 30.5
Players who left 10+ points: Alex Caruso (10.1), DeMar DeRozan (24)
Candidates: Josh Giddey, Coby White, Ayo Dosunmo, Patrick Williams
There is a lot of scoring opportunity here, even if Zach Lavine does play a full complement of games. There is a question on if the Bulls will be good enough. Other than Ayo, though, all of these players look likely to start, and it's possible any could pop.
But, I think all four of these are severly flawed candidates. Josh Giddey isn't a scorer, and is a distributor first – it's very tough to imagine him averaging anywhere near 20 ppg, even on a new team. I don't think Patrick Williams is particularly good, and Coby White took that leap last year – I'm not sure averaging 25+ ppg for him is really possible over an entire season.
Denver Nuggets
Win Total: 52.5
Players who left 10+ points: Kentavious Caldwell Pope (10.1), Reggie Jackson (10.2)
Candidates: Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr.
For a second straight offseason, Denver scorers. This time, they did replace them some with Russell Westbrook, but there is still some room for increased scoring. Is it possible one of these two breaks out and gets to all star status? That they have another level in their game? We've seen it from Murray in the playoff, where he averaged 26.1 during their championship run.
Golden State Warriors
Win Total: 43.5
Players who left 10+ points: Klay Thompson (17.9)
Candidates: De'Anthony Melton, Jonathan Kuminga
Klay leaving ends a historical partnership, and opens up a big scoring gap. As a starter last year, Kuminga averaged 17.2 ppg in 29 minutes per game. While the Warriors brought in Buddy Hield, Melton, and Kyle Anderson to replace Klay, they are undoubtedly hoping Kuminga takes a leap and is the number 2 option. Can he ascend to all star status?
Oklahoma City Thunder
Win Total: 55.5
Players who left 10+ points: Josh Giddey (12.3)
Candidate: Jalen Williams
Jalen Williams finished fourth last year for the award. The Thunder brought in Alex Caruso and Isiah Hartenstein this offseason, but both are defense first players. I think Williams is the most likely all star of everyone on this list. Without Giddey, the ball will be in his hands more, and he will be counted on to lead the Thunder's second unit offensively. The Thunder may very will finish with the best record in the NBA, and the question is whether or not Williams can average 25 ppg and be an all star, and fit this award enough from a narrative perspective.
Toronto Raptors
Win Total: 30.5
Players who left 10+ points: Gary Trent Jr. (13.7). Midseason trades: Pascal Siakam (22.2), OG Anunoby (15.1), Dennis Schroder (13.7)
Candidate: Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett
This one is a strange situation. The Raptors blew up their team, rebuilt midseason, and kept it all together going into this season. As I covered last year, I'm a big believer in Quickley. Barrett was WAY better in Toronto, becoming hyper efficient and averaging 20.2 ppg. Trent leaving this offseason opened up even more of a scoring burden. I was too optimistic on Toronto last year, and am weary about this new group.
Before I dive into who I'm betting, we should note that this market is always evolving. We've seen multiple wins effected by occurrences near the start of the season, such as the James Harden and Lauri Markkanen trades, or even Danny Granger's injury 5 games into 2013.
There is one player who I'm monitoring for these exact reasons:
Trey Murphy (+8000): New Orleans has already had one major scorer leave with Jonas Valanciunas. Brandon Ingram is on the trade block and Zion Williamson is always an injury risk. Trey Murphy meets all the statistical requirements, but he may not start. It may be a year early, but Murphy should be a starter on this team, and he would be a must-bet if there were fewer guys in front of him. Last year, Murphy had a 17% usage and was very efficient. If his usage did go up, his points per game would quickly climb and easily average 20 ppg, if not more.
Before Friday night, I thought the chances of Ingram getting dealt were 25%. Last season, I thought the chances Harden got dealt were below 50%, just because it made so much sense for him to return, and LAC didn't have the right pieces to trade for him. However, the NBA has a way when teams want to get rid of players, and the player wants to get somewhere else to get paid, to make that happen, regardless of the obstacles.
Between the chances Ingram gets dealt, the possibility Zion gets hurt (50%), CJ having a diminished role, and the skill of Trey Murphy, these odds are just too long. This may be a year too early, but there are so many ways for these odds to shorten, and I'd rather be preemptive and bet it while we can still get it at long odds. Betting .25u on Trey Murphy at +8000 on Caesar's (bet down to 6000).
From the teams with the best chance to yield the MIP, I view there as being 11 real candidates: Jalen Johnson, DeAndre Hunter, Josh Giddey, Coby White, Patrick Williams, Michael Porter Jr., Jamal Murray, Jonathan Kuminga, Jalen Williams, RJ Barrett, and Immanuel Quickley.
I'm going to start by ruling out the 3 Chicago Bulls players. Even if they put up gaudy stats, it's hard to be an all star on a bad team, and the Bulls have fewer outs than most because their defense profiles to be really bad.
I also can't get behind Michael Porter Jr. or DeAndre Hunter. Hunter may not even start, and Porter has been such a complementary player up until this point: the subtraction of KCP won't change that.
RJ Barrett (+4000): Last year, Barrett shot the lights out in Toronto. He was a way better shooter than he had ever been in New York and also a better passer. He then went to the Olympics, and continued to shoot the ball even better than he did in Toronto. I'm hesitant to believe Barrett has turned over a new leaf, and is just an elite scorer now. But at 24 years old and in his 6th season in the NBA, this is when some players have taken that jump. But Barrett also reminds me of Mikal Bridges, who took a huge offensive leap after his trade, then regressed in his full season. Between the likely regression and the quality of the Raptors, this is a pass.
Immanuel Quickley (+2500): I'm a big Quickley fan. I have been since last year. The opportunity for him here is big, and he has the potential to be a dominant force. Similar to Barrett, I believe Barnes is the main player on this team.
I'll definitely be monitoring this situation as the season progresses, but Toronto just profiles to be not good neough.. One of my biggest worries is that he took on a lot of distributing load, and point guards who primarily distribute have not been big winners of this award: it's mostly players who took a leap in scoring. Quickley is the third option here on offense, and will likely continue to take a back seat. For Barrett and Quickley: if they were on separate teams, I'd be eyeing either of them, but on the same team that doesn't look to be good enough, I'm passing on both.
Jalen Johnson (+2200): Johnson's rookie year I went to summer league. We watched Atlanta play, and Johnson immediately popped out to me with incredible athleticism and feel. It took him awhile to earn his place, but now he is locked in on an Atlanta team desperate for scoring and a number two option. This would require a sizable leap in playmaking and scoring usage, and an uptick in efficiency as well.
I think it's possible. If he averages 23-25 ppg, the Hawks will be better than expected, and he will be a likely all star – which makes +2200 real value to me. I'm betting .5u on +2200 for Jalen Johnson for MIP (bet down to +1800).
Jonathan Kuminga (+1400): Kuminga has every opportunity to thrive with Klay gone. In January last year, he averaged 20 ppg on 40% from three and 58.6% overall. I heard this somewhere else, but I'm reminded of the moneyball analogy for replacing Klay: the Warriors brought in 3 guys who combined will provide more than Klay did.
I think Kuminga has a really great chance to average 20 ppg this year. But to make an all star team in the West, it's probably got to be higher or the Warriors need to be really good, and I think there is a ceiling on those two. He has no chance to be the best player on his team. I completely understand the idea of backing Kuminga at these odds, but I believe they are fair and will pass.
Jamal Murray (+15000): These odds are really, really long. For Murray, if we envision a scenario where he ups his scoring to 25 ppg and makes an all star team, will the media really give him most improved? Or just view it as a continuation of past playoff successes. I think he is too far along in his career where he is now in the intermediate spot of not an all star, but too good to win MIP.
Jalen Williams (+2200): Of every player mentioned, Jalen Williams is the MOST likely to be an all star this season. If he ups his scoring average by even a little, and the Thunder are running away with the best record, he will likely be an all star. If he ups it a lot, and the Thunder are the one seed while he averages 25+, he will be an all star.
The Josh Giddey trade created a huge usage hole. Giddey was often the primary ball handler with Shai off the floor last season, and that role will transition more to JDub. He fits everything we are looking for in an MIP, in an almost perfect mirror to Tyrese Maxey last season. He should be the favorite, and I'm going to bet him as such. Betting 1.25u on JDub for MIP at +2200 (bet down to +1500).
