Saturday's best NBA player props come from Game 3 of the Western Conference semifinals:
- Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets: 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC
As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 6:45 p.m. ET. View live odds here.
Warriors SF Andre Iguodala
The Pick: Over 4.5 rebounds (-130)
DeMarcus Cousins is likely done for the rest of the postseason, and Iguodala has been the biggest beneficiary. He hasn’t seen a huge bump in usage or rebound rate with Cousins off the court during the postseason, but he has seen a large increase in playing time.
He’s logged at least 32.4 minutes in each of the first two games during this series, including 34.2 in game 1. He’s currently projected for 33.6 minutes in the FantasyLabs NBA Models, and Iggy has averaged 5.7 rebounds per 36 minutes this season. The Rockets also rank just 28th in team rebound rate, so this is a good matchup as well.
This line feels low given the matchup and Iguodala’s increase in playing time. I like the over up to -145.
Rockets SG James Harden
The Pick: Under 7.5 assists (-115)
Harden is one of the most talented offensive players in the history of the league, but he’s operated more as a scorer than a distributor vs. the Warriors. He’s total just 10 assists through his first two games but has attempted 23.5 shot attempts per game.
It’s not like his teammates haven’t been capitalizing on his passes either: He’s averaged just 8.5 potential assists over his past two playoff games per NBA.com. To put that in perspective, Nikola Jokic has averaged 20.5 potential assists over the same time frame.
I’m banking on Harden continue to look for his own shot rather than set up his teammates tonight. I like the under up to -130.
Rockets PF P.J. Tucker
The Pick: Over 8.5 points (+105)
Tucker is far from an accomplished scorer, but this is a really low bar to clear considering the amount of minutes he plays.
He’s coming off 41.3 minutes in his last game, and he’s played at least 39 minutes in each of his past three. Tucker has logged at least 11 points in five of his first seven playoff games, and he’s averaged 10.1 points per 36 minutes during the postseason.
Tucker has a wide range of outcomes, but I’m willing to take a shot at the over at better than even money. It stops looking like a value at around -110.
