The NBA is in an era of unprecedented offensive excellence. This past NBA season, the average Offensive Rating was 115.8, per Basketball-reference. In 2019, the NBA crossed the 110 Offensive Rating threshold, and scoring has been getting more efficient ever since.
All this is to show how horrific the Cleveland Cavaliers offense has been in these playoffs. The Cavs' Offensive Rating has been below 105 points per 100 possessions in every game of this series, including their two wins in Cleveland.
Since 2000, 16 other teams have had an Offensive Rating of 105 or lower in their first four playoff games, but only one went on to win the series. Cleveland is only the third team to be tied 2-2 at this point; the other two teams in this scenario went 1-1 in terms of winning the series.
The Cavs are also only the second team to post an Offensive Rating of 105 or lower in the first four games of a series since 2016, when Offensive Ratings started to increase, which illustrates how poor their offense has been.
Other than Jarrett Allen, every Cavs starter has been underwhelming on offense. Donovan Mitchell has been particularly terrible, and he has been significantly less efficient in three straight playoff series. Darius Garland has also been timid, which has allowed the Magic to focus all their efforts on Mitchell. Of course, despite all this, the Cavs managed to win the first two games at home and went to Orlando with a commanding 2-0 lead.
Before the series, we talked about the coaching advantage, and this is where Jamahl Mosley has stepped up. While he overadjusted at the beginning of the series by starting Jonathan Isaac, the Magic went back to what worked for them all season by putting Wendell Carter Jr. back into the starting lineup and shifting Jalen Suggs onto Mitchell.
Putting Carter into the starting lineup helped reinvigorate the Magic offense, and the defense has continued to shut down the Cavs.
I don't think the Cavs have an answer. Mitchell doesn't look right physically, and J.B. Bickerstaff doesn't seem to have any answers — or even be willing to try new things schematically in the playoffs. Mosley is one step ahead, and if the Cavs do counter, I expect a better counter back from the Magic and ultimately a series win in six or seven games.
I'm betting a half-unit on the Magic to win the series. The best series price at the moment is +155 on BetMGM or BetRivers, but the ultimate best price is on BetMGM, where you can bet Magic to win 4-2 at +425 and Magic to win 4-3 at +450, which are composite odds of +168.
I'm betting .25u on 4-2 +425 and 4-3 +450. I'd bet whichever price is best, but if you can snag the better correct-score odds, I'd grab those instead.
