Prop bets can be a great way to get action on a game. Bookmakers don’t have to worry about taking a lot of action on them, so there isn’t as great an incentive to post a competitive line.
As a result, props can be some of the most exploitable bets on the board.
These props can become downright unfair when you combine them with the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool.
Monday’s best props focus on two of the slate’s nine games:
- Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers: 10:30 p.m. ET on NBATV
Let’s dive right in.
Heat C Hassan Whiteside
The Pick: Over 14.0 points (-135)
Whiteside had a down season last year, but he’s rebounded nicely to start the 2018-19 campaign. He’s averaging 14.0 points in 29.4 minutes per game, so on the surface, this line seems fair.
That said, he’s played at least 32 minutes in each of his past three games, and he obviously has more scoring upside with more playing time.
Whiteside should see plenty of minutes today vs. Joel Embiid in the post. He averaged 15.3 points per game vs. the 76ers last season.
Our FantasyLabs crew is currently projecting Whiteside for 17 points, giving the over a Bet Quality of 9 in the Player Props tool. I’d play this up to -190.
Heat PG Goran Dragic
The Pick: Under 18 points (-115)
Dragic returned from an injury in Miami’s last game but still appeared to be pretty limited. He played just over 21 minutes and shot 0-of-7 from the field, resulting in zero points scored.
We’re expecting him to play slightly more today — he’s currently projected for 29.5 minutes in the our FantasyLabs NBA Models — but he’s averaged just 16.1 points per game this season. The 76ers represent a difficult matchup, as well: They rank sixth in the league in defensive efficiency.
Dragic is almost undoubtedly due for some positive regression in his scoring numbers moving forward — he’s shooting just 39.1% from the field — but I’m willing to bet on it not happening today. I like the under up to -150.
Clippers PF Montrezl Harrell
The Pick: Over 13 points (-135)
I’m buying up all the Harrell stock before it's too late. He’s played at least 25 minutes in each of his past four games, and has scored at least 13 points each of his past three.
He should see plenty of minutes today vs. the Warriors in what will likely be a fast game: Both of these teams rank in the top 13 in terms of pace. This also doesn’t feel like a game in which the Clippers can rely on playing a traditional big like Boban Marjanovic or Marcin Gortat for many minutes, which could result in an even larger workload than usual for Harrell.
Harrell is extremely active when he’s on the floor, which is why he’s averaging 13.8 points in just 22.6 minutes per game this season. I think we can pretty comfortably expect him to see closer to 30 in this game, so I’m willing to bet the over up to -170.
Warriors PG Quinn Cook
The Pick: Over 13.5 points (-130)
Golden State will be without star PG Steph Curry for today’s matchup vs. the Clippers, which will likely result in another start for Cook. He was excellent in his first start of the season, scoring 27 points in just under 30 minutes of playing time.
He does have a difficult individual matchup vs. Patrick Beverley, but this line still seems low given his bump in playing time: He’s averaged 23.1 points per 36 minutes through his first 10 games of the year.
The Warriors’ implied team total of 114.5 ranks third on the slate, and Cook was third on the team in usage in their last game. I like this bet up to -185.
