Prop bets can be a great way to get action on a game. Bookmakers don’t have to worry about taking a lot of action on them, so there isn’t as great an incentive to post a competitive line.
As a result, props can be some of the most exploitable bets on the board.
These props can become downright unfair when you combine them with the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool.
Tuesday’s best props focus on three of the slate’s 11 games:
- Philadelphia 76ers at Orlando Magic: 7 p.m. ET
- Miami Heat at Brooklyn Nets: 7:30 p.m. ET
- New York Knicks at Oklahoma City Thunder: 8 p.m. ET
Let’s dive right in.
76ers SG Jimmy Butler
The Pick: Under 19.5 points (-105)
Butler was finally able to force his away out of Minnesota and will make his debut for the 76ers tonight against the Orlando Magic. That said, there are a lot of questions still yet to be answered about how Butler will fit with his new team.
He’s always been at his best when playing with the ball, but Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons are also players who will demand a lot of touches. Embiid ranks sixth in the NBA in usage rate this season while Simmons ranks seventh in assist rate. There are also floor spacing concerns with this group, especially since second-year guard Markelle Fultz provides zero perimeter shooting.
Bringing in a superstar like Butler is a move that the 76ers had to make, but don’t be surprised if there are some growing pains while they learn to play together.
I’m expecting Butler to see a decline in usage rate with his new team, and it wouldn’t shock me to see him be passive after causing all that drama in Minnesota. I like the under here up to -150.
Heat SF Josh Richardson
The Pick: Over 18.0 points (-120)
Richardson has taken a major step forward in his fourth season and is currently leading the Heat in points per game (20.5) and minutes per game (35.0) and ranks second in usage rate (24.3%).
He has topped the 18-point threshold just once in his past four games (had exactly 18 on Friday), but he’s shooting 39.3% from the field in those games. He could be in line for some positive regression today vs. the Brooklyn Nets, who are tied for 23rd in terms of defensive efficiency.
Richardson eclipsed 18 points in six of his first nine games this season, so I think this line offers some value in a good matchup. I’d play this prop up to -140, but I wouldn’t be as interested if the line got higher than 18 points.
Knicks G Damyean Dotson
The Pick: Under 4.5 rebounds (-156)
Dotson had a nice run for the Knicks, but it appears his time is coming to an end. He’s played 23.5 minutes or less in each of his past three games and will be replaced in the starting lineup tonight by Kevin Knox.
Its going to be tough for him to grab five rebounds given his reduction in playing time, especially in a difficult matchup vs. the Thunder: They rank seventh in rebound rate this season.
This line is way off considering Dotson has grabbed just eight total rebounds over his past three games. I’d play the under at 4.5 up to -200 and would feel comfortable playing it at 4.0 as well.
