The NBA season is still over six weeks away, but players are trickling into facilities off their vacations and coaches are starting to come up with gameplans for the season.
With that in mind, I decided to try and get a sense for which teams were "lucky" last season. After all, our own Nick Giffen and Sean Koerner's Luck Rankings for NFL have been wildly successful. While we don't have a comprehensive luck ranking for NBA, I did find a compelling trend among teams who won "coin flip games."
Weighting The Coin Flip
The NBA has moved towards evaluating teams by their "clutch rating" which establishes games inside of five points in the final five minutes. It's a better way to establish who actually has a strong ability to close games convincingly. However, 3-point games are another matter. Games decided by three points or less come down to a single field-goal attempt or possession. There's a lot more of a luck factor inherent in those games rather than games that are close in the final five. It also excludes teams that led and had to hang on with free throws.
If you have a season where that goes significantly well, you would expect it to inflate the following season's win total and for those teams to go under more than over. And that's exactly what we've seen in the modern era.
I looked at teams with a 75th percentile or better outcome in 3-point games won (8) and 3-point-game win percentage (60% or better) over the past 13 seasons (not including the 2020 COVID-shortened season with most win totals voided). The result?
Those teams went under the following season at a rate of 35-18 (66%). Teams that made the playoffs under those win conditions went 23-8 to the under the following season (74%).
There will always be outlier conditions in these samples year over year, but that's a pretty strong trend for us to look at over a wide period of time.
Here are the five teams who finished with at least eight 3-point wins and a 3-point game win percentage of 60% or better.
Cleveland Cavaliers
3-Point-Game Record (9-5, 64%) | Made Playoffs: Yes | 2024-25 Win Total: 48.5
It sure didn't feel like the Cavaliers got lucky last season. Evan Mobley missed 32 games, Donovan Mitchell missed 27 games, and Darius Garland missed 25 games. They were 8th in cash lost to injuries last season.
But from a luck perspective, they also went 14-4 without Garland and Mobley. Maybe that's indicative of how good just putting Mitchell in spread pick and roll with Jarrett Allen alongside three shooters can be, but it's also probably a little bit of a counter-balance to their injury issues.
With new coach Kenny Atkinson and a re-signed Donovan Mitchell, I'm bullish on the Cavaliers, but NBA futures analyst Brandon Anderson is way more so. From our Central Division best bets pod:
"Elite defensive regular season formula equals my all-in East team. I'm in. This is my team I'm betting on this pod over 48 and a half. It's a bet 50 plus wins division bet plus 300 multi-unit division bet for me. This is my favorite division bet on the board. I've got other alts. I'm in. This is my East team."
For Anderson, it's all about the defense.
"They've been a top seven defense three years in a row. I think they're a possible number one defense, and we know that we bet on regular season team win overs when they have great defense… The defense gets more minutes from Mobley. He was eighth in minutes on the team last year. I like Dean Wade. I like Craig Porter Jr. I think they both help the defense a lot."
Still, history says they'll be facing an uphill battle against that win total.
Atlanta Hawks
3-Point-Game Record: 9-6 (60%) | Made Playoffs: No | 2024-25 Win Total: 35.5
The worst ATS team in the league (and the third-worst since we have data available in 2003) actually got pretty lucky in close games last year. Five of those wins came against playoff teams, including two vs. the Celtics in March when Boston had sewn up the No.1 seed.
Atlanta is a trendy pick amongst our NBA analysts at a big plus number for their division at +1700 at FanDuel. NBA Futures analyst Brandon Anderson likes that a lot in our Southeast Division preview:
"Not great, but maybe good enough in this division. Lean over 35.5, but I'm not playing that. I'd rather play the division odds plus 1700."
A big reason why? Trae Young:
"Trey’s what I like. I think Trey is a good player. I think Trey has become underrated because we know all the flaws. We know the defense is really bad. The offense is really good… They’ve had a 116, 117 offensive rating for straight years. It's a high floor."
I however, am way down on the Hawks as you can hear in the podcast. It just doesn't work in Atlanta:
"We have three seasons of just like, no, they just kind of suck… There's something with this team that does not work. And they thought, it was the coach. First, they thought it was Pierce. They got rid of him and put in McMillan. Then they got rid of McMillan, they put in Quinn."
That said, teams that missed the playoffs with the 3-point game thresholds are only 8-7 to the under. The Hawks won fewer games than expected by 1.2 wins, and teams with the 3-point game thresholds who won fewer games than they "should" have went 4-2, one of the few over splits for this trend. This over/under is tricky.
Miami Heat
3-Point-Game Record: 8-4 (67%) | Made Playoffs: Yes | 2024-25 Win Total: 44.5
Now we're talking. A team running out of talent with only two young players who can make real leaps in Jaime Jaquez and Nikola Jovic, an aging superstar on an expiring contract after both sides declined extension talks, and a history of a physical style that results in myriad injury issues.
The Heat managed to slide over their win total by a half-game. Their expected win total based on point differential was only 45.2, just under. Teams who won more games than they "should" have by that metric with the above 3-point-game results have gone 24-11 (69%) to the under in the last 13 seasons.
Miami is +360 to miss the playoffs this upcoming season.
In the above Southeast Division podcast, I broke down my concerns with the Jimmy Butler situation and why I'm betting Miami +360 to miss the playoffs.
"If you're the Heat and you get to the deadline… and Jimmy is an expiring contract… that can get really bad if you're at the deadline and you're still on pace for 500, even 46 wins… There's almost no option here but to be like, we've got to do something here to like reshape this roster going forward."
Los Angeles Lakers
3-Point-Game Record: 11-4 (73%) | Made Playoffs: Yes | 2024-25 Win Total: 45.5
This is one where I'm willing to fade the trend. Much like the Cavaliers, the Lakers had exceptional luck in these games decided by three points or less, but they also had horrible injury luck.
Yes, LeBron James and Anthony Davis played more games than they have in years and more games together than they have in years. But the rest of the roster was extremely banged up, making continuity and chemistry a real challenge, on top of the issues many felt were caused by Darvin Ham.
(I'm skeptical on Ham having been the problem, but we'll find out with first-year coach JJ Redick if it really is that much of an upgrade just by replacing Ham.)
I have the Lakers projected for almost 50 wins next season. That said, the Lakers won more games than they were projected to by point differential last season. If James at age 40 or Davis miss games closer to their average, if the team's 3-point game performance regresses, if the Lakers' advantage just over the Thunder dissipates with the addition of Isaiah Hartenstein, all of these point a path towards an under.
The Lakers were also the only team to have a 75th percentile clutch win percentage on top of the 3-point game trends. Teams that were outlier performers in both clutch time and in 3-point games have gone a stunning 19-6 to the under (76%).
On our Pacific Division best bets podcast, I laid out the case of the Lakers:
"The Lakers had some of the worst injury luck last season to their supporting players… they missed significant guys that would have helped them build rhythm and continuity… My thesis here is that LeBron and AD can play fewer games but with better overall health they can still win enough to get over this number."
Brandon Anderson on the other hand is convinced this is an under play, based largely on the roster and the availability of James and Davis likely regressing.
"I just don't think the role players are very good. Now, I'm not talking here about the three, four or five. We talked about Dela. We talked about Hachimura. We talked about Reeves. I think those are rotation guys. Not about those guys. You got five guys now. NBA teams need more than five guys… There's not a lot of guys here. There's not a lot of options…
Last year, they got 71 LeBron games. They got 76 Anthony Davis games. That is the hundredth percentile outcome of what they could get health wise from those guys… I expect them to get 20 to 30 games less of LeBron and Davis… If you take a roster that is two elite guys and give me 25 less games of them… that's not going to go well for a team that only barely stayed above the 10 seed."
Houston Rockets
3-Point-Game Record: 8-5 (62%) | Made Playoffs: No | 2024-25 Win Total: 42.5
This one seems the most dicey. Yes, the Rockets cleared the thresholds to be here, but just barely. They have a ton of internal development possible with such a young roster to balance out any luck they were gifted last season.
Like with the Hawks, the Rockets won fewer games than they should have; they actually had the worst differential between actual wins and what they should have based on point differential (which is impressive given this 3-point game trend).
Teams with an expected win total four games worse than their actual are 17-11 to the over in the last 13 seasons.
Houston's got internal improvement, the addition of another strong rookie class, and some trade upside if they decide to shake things up. I'm not sold on the over; I project them only at 42 wins, but this trend seems softest for Houston of any of these teams.
Here's what we had to say on our Southwest Division podcast:
