You can't sim-to-end in sports. That's the thing about sports and why we watch: they're wild, unpredictable and just when we think we've figured them out, there's a plot twist.
With that said, the sun's getting real low on the 2024 NBA season and a pretty obvious path seems to be in front of us.
The Dallas Mavericks went up 2-0 on the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals on Friday night after Luka Doncic's game-winner, dagger, cold-blooded-as-arctic-ice stepback three to sweep the two games in Minnesota.
According to WhoWins.com, NBA teams that go up 2-0 on the road in the conference final are 16-0 in NBA history.
Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics are up 2-0 on the Indiana Pacers and 7-point favorites in Game 3 in Indiana with Tyrese Haliburton questionable. Teams up 2-0 with homecourt are 58-6 in their respective series.
Sports can happen, and if you believe in the Timberwolves (+400 to win the WCF) or Pacers (+3000 to win the ECF) then you can register that opinion in the market with a bet.
But as far as the oddsmakers are concerned, it's gonna' be Celtics-Mavericks.
Celtics NBA Finals Odds Can Be Found at Discounted Price Right Now
What's interesting is that, with prior knowledge of the matchup, we have a nice little edge at the moment. These were the lookahead prices on the Finals before Game 2 of the WCF at DraftKings Sportsbook.
That all makes sense.
Except currently, the Boston Celtics are -200 to win the title.
So that's an 80-cent gap between the lookahead and the current line, even though no team has done what the Timberwolves need to do in order to eliminate the Mavericks, and very few have done what the Pacers, a 6th-seed mind you, would have to do.
OK, but what about Dallas' chances in the Finals?
If and when that matchup locks up, we'll break it down, but I've had some time to think about it, and I lean Boston heavily here.
(Disclosure: I liked the Nuggets over the Timberwolves and the Mavericks over the Timberwolves pre-series. I liked Minnesota's matchup with Denver but foolishly thought Denver would clutch-merchant their way to two wins they did not. I liked OKC over Dallas but described it as a purely shot variance series, which it was for the most part. And, of course, I liked Boston in every series because they've played nobody.)
The problem with the Wolves is they don't have a Luka-stopper. There's no Lu Dort. Jaden McDaniels is too slight, and Anthony Edwards is too small. Honestly, the Wolves would've been blown out in both games if it wasn't for huge performances from Jaden McDaniels in Game 1 and Naz Reid in Game 2.
The Celtics, as the kids say, are built different. Boston has big wings like Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to defend sizable guards like Luka. They have extremely pesky guard defenders with more core strength in Derrick White and Jrue Holiday. Doncic will get his; he's Luka. But they can make things hard for him.
Dallas' dominance in the paint matters less vs. the Celtics. They ranked 26th in rim frequency this season and haven't changed much in the playoffs. The Mavericks are susceptible to pull-up shooters; the Celtics made the whole boat out of jump-shooters. There's a comparison here to the Suns, who the Wolves manhandled in the first round, but the Wolves were able to reconfigure their matchups and win the math game.
Boston does not allow such adjustments.
The Celtics will switch often. So, yes. The Mavs will get Al Horford or Kristaps Porzingis (if he returns) switched onto Doncic. But their switch execution and help defense is a little better than Minnesota's. The Timberwolves don't want to switch, Boston does.
Offensively, the Celtics excel at one-on-one basketball which the Mavericks don't like. They want you to drive into their crowds and then dare shooters to hit stilted threes. Again, this is kind of like trying to force Boston fans to turn down Krispy Kreme for Dunkin' Donuts.
I'll bet the Celtics to beat Dallas in the Finals, both straight up and on the series line. But you can bet them now at what appears to be an 80-cent discount.
Sports often surprise us, and I'm sure there will be more twists and turns before the Larry O'Brien is raised. But the path is pretty clear the rest of the short way. The Mavericks will eventually oust the Wolves, the Celtics will dispatch Indiana, and after every single thing they needed fell into place, the Celtics will take advantage of the best possible matchup for them from the Western Conference and finally win Banner 18. Save yourself the 80-cents.
Pick: Celtics to Win NBA Finals (-200 at DraftKings)
