The Eastern Conference Arms Race just went up a notch.
The Boston Celtics on Sunday traded Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams III and two first-round picks to the Portland Trail Blazers for Jrue Holiday.
The move substantially upgrades Boston's backcourt rotation. Holiday has been considered an elite defender for the last decade and finished seventh in Defensive EPM among guards last season. The combination of Holiday and Derrick White is the best defensive backcourt in the league.
Holiday is a steady point guard offensively who held 48-38-86 shooting splits. He's not dynamic, but his addition is significant for a team that consistently has offensive meltdowns due to disorganization.
The Celtics' top-six rotation of Holiday, White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford is excellent. They have versatility, shooting, defense, size and athleticism.
That's also about all they have — and it's why the Celtics better be right about Holiday.
The Celtics are risking a lot on this move when you look at their depth post-trade. Boston's frontcourt rotation is now Al Horford, Kristaps Porzingis, Luke Kornet and Neemias Queta.
If you're unfamiliar with those last two names and don't own at least one piece of Larry Bird memorabilia, I don't blame you.
Porzingis was incredible last season and underrated with his impact. It was also the first time he's played in more than 60 games since 2017. He has major knee injuries on his chart that consistently cause him to miss time with soreness.
Horford is 37 and will be close to 38 by the conference finals. There were times in the Celtics' playoff run last season when he started to look his age despite a terrific overall season.
The Celtics still have assets they can use to make more trades, but going into training camp, they need more rim protection if either center struggles with injury or foul trouble.
Bostn added Wenyen Gabriel off the free agency market soon after the trade to be their last big man, but Gabriel played less than four minutes per game for the Lakers in the playoffs. It's hard to say that he's a solid rotation player. He has some upside but hasn't carved out a big enough spot to feel he shores up the position.
Last season, the Celtics had multiple reliable backcourt combinations. Playing Marcus Smart, White, Brown and Brogdon allowed them to be elastic with rotations and allowed for rest management. That may not be possible with the rotation of those top players down to Holiday (age 33), White and Brown.
Payton Pritchard was unhappy with his limited role last season and now will see more time, but he had some of the worst advanced impact metrics of any rotation player. Sam Hauser is an incredible shooter but is not a playoff-caliber player (yet, anyway).
Boston has some options; rookie Jordan Walsh shined at summer league, and there are quality rotation players on the free-agency market given the recent movement, including Reggie Bullock, Ish Wainright and Keon Johnson.
These options are less dependable than the options in last year's rotation. Last year, the Celtics could afford to rest players who needed it throughout the season, but that ability has been limited by their trades.
The long-term money is a concern as well, though. Holiday has spoken openly about potentially retiring after his current contract runs out with a player option in 2024-25. However, if he wants to continue playing, an extension would be prohibitive under the new CBA, especially after Jaylen Brown's new supermax contract.
Overall, the talent is an upgrade. Holiday is a better and more impactful player than Smart (which says something because Smart is a former DPOY and a terrific playmaker), and Porzingis is better than Williams.
Boston's move helps them match up better with the Bucks after adding Damian Lillard; having Holiday and White to switch off and tail Lillard matters.
Their Miami matchup will still be tight if the Heat can figure out how to replace Max Strus and Gabe Vincent; Holiday struggled mightily for Milwaukee defending Jimmy Butler in the post.
The lack of depth could hurt against Joel Embiid with the 76ers… but we need to understand what happens with the James Harden trade to know if the 76ers will even be a serious contender this season.
Boston's team is better when healthy than last season, but its margin for error is considerably smaller. The Celtics need to prioritize health, which could limit their night-to-night effectiveness in the regular season and win-total ceiling, and it increases their playoff downside ranges.
At full strength, the Celtics are loaded, but at anything less, the championship foundation begins to crumble. Given what they surrendered with their roster makeover, they had better be right on this gamble with Holiday.
