Celtics vs Cavaliers Picks & Prediction
The Celtics are playing the Cavs in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, so I suppose we better preview the series and pretend to care.
No one expects this series to be close or competitive, including the sportsbooks. At FanDuel, Boston is priced at -3000 to win the series, an implied 96.8%. Cleveland is a wild long shot at +1120, implying just an 8.2% chance of survival.
This is coming off the heels of a Celtics series where Boston was literally priced as a favorite to sweep the Miami Heat, though it should be noted that the Celtics did lose one of those games.
It's certainly not the most interesting series in the world, so let's not waste our time with a long in-depth preview. Instead, let's tiptoe into these shallow waters with a brief preview and a pick.
Be sure to check out my other more interesting series previews and picks.
- Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
- New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers
- Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks
Matchup Analysis
The Cavaliers offense was horrendous in the first round, one of the worst showings in recent memories for a team that actually advanced.
Cleveland just has nothing cooking right now outside of Donovan Mitchell, and even he has been pretty inefficient and not his usual self with an ailing knee injury.
Boston's defense isn't quite at the level as Orlando's, but it's close, and the Celtics have plenty of tough perimeter defenders like Jrue Holiday and Derrick White to throw at Mitchell.
There's little reason to think the Cavs can score in any real capacity to hang with Boston.
Cleveland's defense is its better unit, but it mostly excels against 2s, and Boston prefers to bomb 3s. The Celtics led the league in 3s attempted and made and ranked top-three in 3-point percentage. Cleveland's defense ranked bottom-10 in 3-point percentage defense.
Shooting variance can always go awry, but the Celtics were 50-5 in the regular season when they hit at least 35% of their 3s.
The one Heat win last round was all about coaching and cranking up the variance. Miami won because Erik Spoelstra is the best coach in the league and because the Heat got an all-time great shooting night on a huge volume of 3s.
The Cavs can't win either of those ways.
Best Bet: Celtics -1.5 Series Spread (-390)
Cleveland isn't good enough to beat Boston — its only real hope this series is the Celtics beating themselves.
This is a mismatch at every level.
It's telling that this series is mispriced so badly even with Kristaps Porzingis injured and unlikely to play, maybe at any point this series. Truthfully, Jarrett Allen is a much bigger loss for Cleveland if he remains out.
It's tempting to jump right to a sweep, priced at +180. That looks about right on paper, but these Celtics always seem to play with their food, and their high volume of 3s leaves room for error.
Since the 2020 bubble, the Celtics are 10-15 against the spread after a playoff win by more than 10 points, losing seven of the last 13 outright. This team gets overconfident and screws around, and I don't want them screwing with my money.
Still, this is not Spo and the Heat walking through that door.
J.B. Bickerstaff is 2-10 ATS as a playoff underdog. That includes 1-11 straight up, the lone win being a one-point escape at home.
Cleveland needs four of those. Bickerstaff is also 1-8 ATS on the road in the playoffs and 0-9 straight up. The Cavs need at least one of those, too.
I'm not interested in talking about this series any further, nor in sweating out some stupid game when Boston decided to mail in my sweep bet. Instead, I'll go the other way.
Celtics -1.5 on the series spread is badly mispriced at -390 at DraftKings. That implies 79%, and I'd put it at over 90%. Boston wins this in six or less — probably a game or two less.
I don't typically play -390 lines, but you could do much worse than a 26% return on investment over two weeks. Get your money in and spend it in advance making dinner plans instead of watching these games.
