The Phoenix Suns took their already top-heavy team — that flamed out of the second round of the 2023 NBA Playoffs — and made it more top-heavy on Sunday, reportedly trading Chris Paul, Landry Shamet, multiple second-round draft picks and pick swaps to the Washington Wizards for three-time All-Star Bradley Beal, who is waiving his no-trade clause to make the blockbuster happen.
League sources expect Paul to either be traded or bought out and waived. The Los Angeles Lakers, Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks are among the teams league sources believe he'll be eventually be rumored to join.
BIG TAKEAWAYS
- Beal addresses some, but not all off the Suns' issues.
- Suns title odds on the move.
- Paul is unlikely to stay with Washington.
- Can another superteam iteration really work out better?
BEAL-IEVING IN STAR POWER
Phoenix has wanted a third star to pair with Devin Booker and Kevin Durant for some time; the Suns were actively involved in trade talks for Chris Paul at last year's trade deadline, multiple sources told Action Network. They've wanted a long-term replacement for Paul given his age.
So now they add Beal, who's less of a point guard but younger and a top-end scorer. Beal has some playmaking chops as well, though this slides Devin Booker into more of a point guard role going forward. (I'll be looking for assist overs for Booker next season.)
The Suns moved from +1000 to +600 to win the 2024 NBA Title at SuperBook, and from +700 to +650 at BetMGM. Caesars was most aggressive, moving Phoenix from +900 to +575 after the trade. FanDuel was at +700 and then moved to +600 briefly before settling at +650.
This is a little bit of a market overreaction.
The Phoenix Suns' NBA title odds moved from +900 to +575 after trading for Bradley Beal 👀 pic.twitter.com/9jv7pGRbit
— Caesars Sportsbook (@CaesarsSports) June 18, 2023
Beal is an upgrade over Paul, who struggled physically at times last season with a spotty jumper. In the series vs. the Nuggets, Phoenix struggled with having a third weapon to get the ball to when Denver blitzed Booker in pick-and-roll situations.
Beal doesn't help the Suns' two key issues: defense and depth. It puts another weapon on the floor, but Beal is a subpar defender and doesn't help with how the Suns face number issues given how many threes they take. Beal had a lower 3-point rate than Kevin Durant and had the 11th-lowest 3-point rate among players averaging 23 points per game.
Maybe that rate increases playing as the third weapon next to Durant and Booker, however.
The ability for the Suns to add depth to their roster now rests with Deandre Ayton, who was notably not included in the deal.
Is there a trade out there that will add multiple wing defenders while giving them a starting-caliber center? That will be the challenge for Phoenix — and it's a steep one. The Suns currently only have Cameron Payne and Ish Wainwright on the roster outside of Beal, Booker, Durant and Ayton.
This is also yet another superteam built around Durant, and those have not gone well. The Suns don't have balance or multiple ways to play — they just have an incredible amount of firepower.
It should be noted that Beal has had consistent injury issues throughout his career. He's had season-ending surgeries multiple times. Maybe those dynamics change with more help, but given Durant's age after an Achilles tear and thin depth, it's something to consider.
The Suns have the summer to try and trade Ayton and reconfigure around whatever they're aiming for in terms of supporting players, but will be limited not only by cap space mechanisms but the second apron included in the new CBA, which, after the dust settles, will restrict them from taking back more money in trades and signing buyout players.
This isn't the time to buy Suns futures; we need to see if they look more like a team and less like a highlight reel before investing.
MAGICALLY MAKING WINS DISAPPEAR
For the Wizards, this essentially secures them as a rebuilding lottery team. Their win total will absolutely be bottom-five.
You can expect Kyle Kuzma to bolt via free agency (with league sources indicating his asking price will be close to $30 million per season), and for more changes.
Washington is finally starting a true rebuild, even if it's coming a few years too late.
We'll update title odds and impacts on value as the NBA offseason rolls along here on Action Network and in the Action Network app.
