Game 5: Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks Betting Odds
- Spread: Bucks -7
- Over/Under: 217
- Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: TNT
- Series Score: Tied 2-2
>> All odds as of Wednesday evening. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and live win probabilities on your bets.
The most exciting phrase in sports is not Game 5, but that doesn't take away from the importance. The team that wins Game 5 in a series tied 2-2 goes on to win the series more than 80% of the time.
So which team will take control of this series? Our analysts discuss.
Betting Trends to Know
The Bucks lost Game 4 by 18 points. This is just the seventh time the Bucks lost a game by 10 or more points this season. Following the previous six occurrences, the Bucks went 6-0 against the spread, covering by 12.8 points per game. — John Ewing
History suggests the Bucks will bounce back in Game 5. Since 2005, teams that are favored at home in the playoffs after losing their previous game by at least 10 points have returned a profit of $2,960 for a $100 bettor. This system has been even more profitable in the Conference and NBA Finals, going 25-11 (69%) ATS. — Ewing
Did you know? For just the second time during the 2018-19 season, the Milwaukee Bucks have lost consecutive games. It last occurred back in March on the road against the Jazz and Suns. In their next game, the Bucks returned home and beat the Pacers 117-98 as a 10-point favorite. — Evan Abrams
The Raptors have won two straight games against the Bucks to even up the Eastern Conference Finals. In Game 5, the Raptors are listed as seven-point underdogs on the road in Milwaukee.
Since 2005, teams that have won at least two consecutive games entering a playoff game and are listed as an underdog in their next game are 142-184-8 (43.6%) ATS, failing to cover by an average of 1.8 points per game. When the next game played is Games 5-7 of a playoff series, the team on the two-game-plus winning streak is 31-48-1 (39.2%) ATS, failing to cover by 3.5 points per game. — Abrams
Locky: How I'm Betting Game 5
Has Drake really finally supported a winning team? In my upcoming book “The strongest angles and trends on Earth,” he was Chapter 1. This is really tragic, I might have to call my editor.
The really surprising thing in Game 4 wasn’t that Kawhi Leonard was a little less effective (because he’s injured) or that Giannis Antetokounmpo bounced back a little (25-10 and shot greater than 50% from the field), it was that the Raptors bench thoroughly dominated their Bucks counterparts. I don’t know when Norman Powell decided all of Leonard's field goal attempts should be taken by him instead, but I didn’t even really mind it.
Powell took the most shots on the entire team! He and Fred VanVleet and Serge Ibaka played huge, meaningful minutes and performed well. Nick Nurse even cut into Marc Gasol’s minutes more than usual with some Ibaka time, to the chagrin of Gasol. But who could blame Nurse the way things were going?
What we know about the playoffs, though, is that the role players, the supporting cast, the “others” … whatever you want to call them, they generally play much better at home. Just look at Brook Lopez in Game 1 compared to the past three. Fred VanVleet has played three very impactful games so far this postseason, and all three have been at home (Games 1 and 5 vs. the Magic are the other two aside from this most recent game).
He has been atrocious on the road. Serge Ibaka has played two really impactful games off the bench this postseason — Game 7 at home against Philadelphia, and this past game against Milwaukee. I’m not sure Norman Powell really swung the balance in any game of the first two rounds, but in these last two home games he has been exceptional.
My point here is, the likelihood you get even a reasonable performance from these guys, much less good performances from all three together, is low. And if they aren’t carrying the load, then that puts it back on hampered Leonard, who really gutted out a strong defensive effort but clearly cannot carry the same load right now as earlier in the postseason.
Toronto has looked incredible, and this series is a series, but I don’t like how things are lining up going into Game 5, and I really think the extent to which Toronto relied on their 3 bench performers is a house of cards they may tumble quickly on the road.
You may not see a home team lose a game this entire series, and I like Milwaukee to bounce back in Game 5. I think the spread of -7 is actually a little low, and would bet it up to 8-8.5. — Ken Barkley
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.
