Milwaukee Bucks vs Boston Celtics Odds
| Bucks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 226.5 -110o / -110u | +188 |
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 226.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
By Austin Wang
Read the full game preview here.
I love backing unders when the elite teams face off against one another — I expect a high intensity defensive battle between two of top teams in the NBA where this game could have implications on ultimate playoff seeding.
Also, if Robert Williams III plays, I think that will help this case even further. Christmas Day unders are historically an angle, although that tide seems have shifted with four of the five games last Christmas going over.
I am playing the Milwaukee Team Total Under at 110.5. As mentioned above, they are only averaging 106 points per game on the road. They've only been able to crack that number in three of their 15 road games.
It is unfair to compare the playoff series to a regular season game, but I also figure it is worth noting that Milwaukee didn't score higher than 110 in any of their seven games in the playoff series last season.
My numbers make this a five-point spread, so I think the line is about right you are not getting much value in that number. However, with the Bucks' track record on the road and the trends favoring the Celtics, they appear to be the right side here.
Bucks vs. Celtics NBA Player Props & Picks
Jrue Holiday, Under 30.5 PRA (-111)
| Best Line | FanDuel |
By PropBetGuy
Right smack in the middle of the NBA Christmas Day slate is a rematch of last season’s Eastern Conference Semifinals, with the Bucks taking on the Celtics.
For this matchup, I’m looking to fade Jrue Holiday. The Bucks point guard is averaging 31.4 PRA this season, but there are a few factors pointing to him underperforming against the Celtics.
Firstly, Holiday has struggled with his shot efficiency on the road. The UCLA product is only shooting 41% from the field away from Milwaukee, and an ugly 30% from long-range. With his assists down a tad as well, his 29.9 PRA average in road contests has kept him under this line in six of 11 games.
Holiday has also labored to produce against good defenses this season. Against teams rating in the top 10 in opponent effective field goal percentage, Holiday has failed to clear this line in seven of eight games. The Celtics rank eighth, and were able to hold Holiday to 43% shooting in the regular season last year (and 36% in the playoffs).
Jrue will likely find himself matched up against the likes of Marcus Smart and Derrick White. The Celtics backcourt duo have held opposing point guards to the fifth fewest PRA over their last 15 games.
Offensively for the Bucks, the ball will be in the hands of Giannis Antetokounmpo plenty. I don’t see too much room for Holiday to garner the volume he’d need to eclipse this line, in what should be a slower paced game than the Bucks norm.
While it seems backwards to fade Holiday on Christmas, that’s exactly what I’ll be doing.
Play Down to Under 29.5 |
Bucks vs. Celtics NBA Same Game Parlay Odds & Pick
By Monique
The Parlay: (+436) — FanDuel
- First Quarter Total Points Over 54.5 (-115)
- Jayson Tatum Over 3.5 Made 3-Point Shots (+126)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo To Record 1+ Block (-240)
First Quarter Total Points Over 54.5 (-115)
Both teams like to get off to quick starts and have found a lot of success early on. The Celtics average the third highest first quarter points per game at 30.8, and the Bucks rank sixth averaging 30.1.
Although these are two teams ranked in the top 10 defensively in opponent first quarter points per game, both have been vulnerable defensively in the first quarter over their last three contests. The Bucks have given up 27, 35 and 36 points to start games, and the Celtics 26, 42, and 29 first quarter points over their last three contests.
Digging further into this stat, last time we saw these two teams meet up on April 7, we saw a first quarter score of 36-29 in favor of Milwaukee. The over looks like a good spot.
Jayson Tatum Over 3.5 Made 3-Point Shots (+126)
Jayson Tatum has put up big numbers against the Bucks eclipsing 30 or more points in three of the last six in the head-to-head. What is most notable for Tatum against the Bucks is his shooting from beyond the arc.
In five of the last six in the head-to-head versus the Bucks Tatum has logged at least four made 3-point shots. The number of attempts from deep has also been high, with Tatum attempting 10 or more in four of the last six games against Milwaukee. He's in a great spot to connect on a few from deep.
Giannis Antetokounmpo to Record 1+ Blocks (-240)
Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging a block a game. He has logged two or more blocks in two straight contests in the head-to-head against the Celtics. The Bucks are a good defense in the paint tied for seventh in the Association allowing 47.4 points per game.
For Boston, the Celtics are a team that don't do a lot of scoring from inside the paint and attempt a lot of perimeter shots. This bodes well that Giannis could have quite a few opportunities inside on one-on-one matchups. He looks to be in a great spot to log at least one block and help to spice up the odds on our SGP.
NBA First Basket Prop Odds & Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Grayson Allen
| Odds | Antetokounmpo (+430) | Allen (+1300) |
| Book | FanDuel |
The Milwaukee Bucks are in Boston facing the Celtics in what might be the best game on Christmas day. Brook Lopez ( 77% opening-tip win rate) will jump against Al Horford (50% win rate) for the opening-tip. Lopez won three of four tips last season against Horford, and I would expect him to win the tip in this matchup as well.
Milwaukee has scored first in 59% of its games this season, which is good for the fourth-best rate in the league. Antetokounmpo has scored the Bucks' first basket in five of the past seven games. The Celtics have allowed the opposing power forward or small forward to score first in 55% of their games this season.
I'll take Antetokounmpo to score first and will pair him with Grayson Allen, who could be open for a 3-point shot if the Greek Freak chooses to pass out to the perimeter.
Pick: Antetokounmpo +430 (down to +350, 0.5u) |
Pick: Allen +1300 (down to +1000, 0.25u) |
