The Milwaukee Bucks (32-24) and Houston Rockets (35-22) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. The game will broadcast live on NBA League Pass.
The Rockets are 3.5-point favorites over the Bucks on the spread (Rockets -3.5), with the over/under set at 227 total points. Houston is a -166 favorite to win outright, while Milwaukee is +140 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Bucks vs. Rockets predictions and NBA picks for Tuesday, February 25.
Bucks vs. Rockets Picks, Prediction
Spread
The spread for this game opened at Rockets -3.5 at books like FanDuel and DraftKings that set some early lines. They have since moved to -4, and then back to -3.5, indicating early market support for Houston.
We also have an almost clean injury report on the Houston side; Jabari Smith is back and playing, Fred VanVleet is listed as questionable. The Rockets have depth to replace these guys, but then the bench becomes thin.
When the Rockets are full, they are dominant and tough at home. I expect that again from Houston.
Moneyline
The moneyline price for this game is -180 on the favorites, the Houston Rockets, and +150 on the Milwaukee Bucks as underdogs. If you like the Bucks, I would definitely play a combination of spread and moneyline, and take the escalated payout while playing into a relatively low spread number.
On the Houston side, I would go spread or nothing. On numbers before the 5, historical data shows on favorites play it ATS, and on dogs play it ML. It makes sense given NBA rules, possession rates, and late game fouling to key in on numbers 5 and above, the 2-3 possession threshold that makes an NBA game out of reach late.
Over/Under
The total for this game is slightly increasing, but it is one I would avoid. I think this should be pace up between these two teams, but very physical and with strong defensive rebounding teams on both sides of the ball.
Offensive rebounds generate extra possessions, and the new rule of the 14 second reset shot clock means the second shot attempt has to get up quicker. If these teams put an emphasis on rebounding, it will take efficiency to hit the over. I don't like either side, a complete stay away.
My Pick: Rockets -3.5
Bucks vs. Rockets Odds
| Bucks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 227 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 227 -110o / -110u | -166 |
- Bucks vs. Rockets spread: Rockets -3.5
- Bucks vs. Rockets over/under: 227 total points
- Bucks vs. Rockets moneyline: Houston -166, Milwaukee +140
- Bucks vs. Rockets best bet: Rockets -3.5
Bucks vs. Rockets Preview
With a very clean Rockets injury report, and obviously the news about a Bobby Portis suspension coming earlier this week for the Bucks, I think this is Rockets or nothing. At -4, I would play a full unit, at -4.5 I would reduce that to a 0.75u play.
Giannis has recently been on a minutes limit, Dame has been listed playing through some hamstring tightness. Expect an aggressive Rockets effort to knock the Bucks onto their heels early.
Bucks vs. Rockets Prediction
The hometown Rockets are healthy and looking to hit the gas for the back half of the season. It is toughness, depth, youth and athleticism that can power a team after the all star break and into the doldrums of NBA march with playoff intensity right around the corner.
However, coach Ime Udoka has proven to be dominant in this stretch of the calendar, in his years with Houston and Boston. So let's ride that mentality, on a number below the key 5, on a direction that agrees with market, and with a team that is fuller.
Best Bet: Rockets -3.5 (-110)
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Rockets Moneyline
- Rockets Team Total Over 114.5
- Fred VanVleet Over 5.5 Assists
Parlay Payout: +325
Rockets vs. Bucks Betting Trends
