The Milwaukee Bucks (26-21) and Oklahoma City Thunder (38-9) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. ET at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will broadcast live on NBA League Pass.
The Thunder are 11.5-point favorites over the Bucks on the spread (Thunder -11.5), with the over/under set at 232.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -650 favorite to win outright, while Milwaukee is +470 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Bucks vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Monday, February 3.
Bucks vs. Thunder Picks, Prediction
Spread
While it's not often you see the Bucks as double-digit underdogs, there's also a chance the bookmakers sent out a lousy opening number, with OKC at -7.5.
My model projects the Thunder as no worse than a 10-point favorite, and we've now seen this line rise as high as -11.5 in some sportsbooks.
Moneyline
Milwaukee has looked awful lately, losing three straight games and four of their last five.
However, with the Bucks having won eight of the previous 10 games in this series, we might not get too many chances to take a shot on the moneyline with odds as high as +470.
Over/Under
Although the total has dropped from 234.5 to 232.5 at most sportsbooks, there's a contrarian argument for the Over, as there has been a noticeable difference in the style of play for both teams in recent games.
My Pick: Over 232.5
Bucks vs. Thunder Odds
| Bucks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 232.5 -110 / -110 | +470 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 232.5 -110 / -110 | -650 |
- Bucks vs. Thunder spread: Thunder -11.5
- Bucks vs. Thunder over/under: 232.5 total points
- Bucks vs. Thunder moneyline: Bucks +470, Thunder -650
- Bucks vs. Thunder best bet:Over 232.5 (-110)
My Thunder vs. Bucks best bet is on the Over at 232.5 total points, with the best line currently available at DraftKings. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Bucks vs. Thunder Preview
There's plenty to dissect, given the market movement for Monday's matchup between Milwaukee and Oklahoma City. One thought is that the books opened this game at a bad number. Another is that the Bucks could decide to sit some players, as they'll be on the second leg of a back-to-back.
Or perhaps the bookmakers knew the correct number all along and decided against opening the Bucks as double-digit underdogs to generate significant two-way action on the game. All things could be true; making the point spread was a complete pass for me.
As a result, the total is much more intriguing to me because I've identified some subtle changes in both teams that could lead to a high-scoring affair.
According to NBA.com, both teams are playing slightly faster over their last 10 games, with the Bucks averaging 100.64 possessions (up from 99.96) compared to 101.05 for the Thunder (up from 100.34).
Oklahoma City has also been much more aggressive from the perimeter during that span than earlier in the season. It ranks sixth in 3-point attempts (40.4, up from 38.1) and seventh in 3-point field goals (14.7, up from 13.5).
The Bucks' aggression has come inside the paint, increasing their scoring from 42.7 to 47.6 points. They're also earning more trips to the free-throw line by attacking the paint. Their attempts are up to 25 per game from 21.4, and their made free throws have increased from 15.6 to 18.5.
Given the tweaks both teams have made offensively in recent weeks, it's no surprise that the total is a combined 16-3-1 to the over in their last 20 games.
While it's historically profitable to follow market moves when an opening total of 234.5 or higher was bet down 260-208-7 (55.6%), that theory doesn't quite hold in games involving the Thunder.
According to our Action Labs database, OKC is the second-worst performing team in this spot with a 14-24 (36.8%) run to the under.
Thus, the over is somewhat overlooked in this spot, and I'm expecting plenty of points as a result.
Bucks vs. Thunder Prediction
Despite its recent struggles, Milwaukee still poses a threat to OKC because of its ability to score points. Bucks power forward Giannis Antetokounmpo has particularly found success against the Thunder, averaging 28.6 points, 15.9 rebounds and 6.5 assists over his last 10 games.
OKC has also lost eight of the last 10 meetings, as Antetokounmpo has mainly been a handful for the Thunder.
Given the aggressiveness inside the paint that we highlighted with the Bucks, it's likely Antetokounmpo will continue to have his way. His points + rebound + assists (PRA) prop is available at 48.5 (-115) at DraftKings, a number he exceeded in 11 of his last 13 games vs. bottom-10 defenses for rebounds allowed.
Since Oklahoma City allows the fifth-highest rebounds (11.11) to opposing power forwards, it clearly fits in this category. Lastly, Antetokounmpo surpassed this prop line in his last two games against the Thunder, registering a PRA of 53 and 55.
Not many teams have a player capable of slowing down Antetokounmpo, including the Thunder. As long as he's on the court, he single-handedly improves Milwaukee's chances of winning this game.
Again, it's always unlikely that we find the Bucks in this price range, and at +470, I can't ignore the bark of this underdog.
Best Bet: Over 232.5 (-110)
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 48.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
- Bucks Moneyline (+470)
Parlay Payout: +675
Thunder vs. Bucks Betting Trends
