The Milwaukee Bucks (14-11) and Oklahoma City Thunder (20-5) meet in the NBA Cup Finals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The game will be broadcast live on ABC.
The Thunder are 5.5-point favorites over the Bucks on the spread (Thunder -5.5), with the over/under set at 215.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -225 favorite to win outright, while Milwaukee is +185 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Bucks vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Tuesday, December 17.
Bucks vs. Thunder Prediction, Picks, Odds
| Bucks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 215.5 -110o / -110u | +185 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 215.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
- Bucks vs. Thunder spread: Thunder -5.5
- Bucks vs. Thunder over/under: 215.5 total points
- Bucks vs. Thunder moneyline: Bucks +185, Thunder -225
- Bucks vs. Thunder best bet: Thunder -5
Spread
My Thunder vs. Bucks best bet is on the Thunder to cover the spread at -5. But as always, be sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Moneyline
My main pick for this contest is on Oklahoma City to cover the spread as opposed to the moneyline. However, I will be betting the Thunder moneyline in my same game parlay for this contest.
Over/Under
I'm staying away from the total in tonight's NBA Cup Finals.
My Pick: Thunder -5.5 (-112)
Bucks vs. Thunder NBA Cup Final Preview
The Milwaukee Bucks have a showdown in Vegas against the Oklahoma City Thunder for the NBA Cup Championship. With two of the NBA's biggest stars in Giannis Antetokounmpo and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, this will be a must-watch matchup.
The Bucks started the season slowly but have been ripping since and continue to climb the Eastern Conference Rankings, while the Thunder have been dominant since Day 1 and sit atop the Western Conference standings. The Thunder have the league's best Adjusted Net Rating (+9.5), seventh in Offense (114.9), and first in Defense (105.4), per Dunks and Threes.
Milwaukee is strong, but the advanced metrics do not favor it as much with the thirteenth Adjusted Net Rating (+1.7), ninth-best offense (113.8) and thirteenth defense (112.0), per Dunks and Threes. Oklahoma City has been more consistent in the season.
All three of Giannis (knee), Damian Lillard (calf) and Middleton (illness) are listed as Probable for this game, but it would be truly stunning if any missed this Final. The Thunder will continue to be without Chet Holmgren and that injury is the most interesting in this matchup.
The Thunder have a million wings to defend Lillard, Middleton, AJ Green, etc., for this spot; however, it's still brutal to defend Giannis. I would expect them to put either Jalen Williams or Isaiah Hartenstein on him; however, I think this is a spot where you live with whatever Giannis puts up and make sure you limit Lillard, Middleton, AJ Green, and Gary Trent Jr. from the perimeter.
Hartenstein is extremely valuable as a help defender and his rebounding is incredible but he is still not strong enough to stop Giannis. OKC should stay in single coverage to prevent those drive-and-kick opportunities.
Giannis' median outcome in wins is 32, while in losses, it's 30.5, so there is not a strong correlation between his scoring and winning. I like Giannis to score 30 points (-125 FD/ESPN), a number he's hit in 70% of games this season.
For Oklahoma City, this is a brutal matchup for Williams, especially if he's expending energy on the defensive side of the ball against Giannis. However, the biggest edge that OKC has is that Milwaukee has poor transition defense. OKC can push the Pace and get its opponents reeling in transition — they get out into transition at the fourth-highest frequency, per Cleaning the Glass. I'll look for OKC to keep the Bucks' defense on their heels.
Bucks vs. Thunder Best Bets, Predictions
This game should be thrilling and in most matchups, Giannis is certainly the best player on the floor; however, on Wednesday night, that's up for interpretation with SGA wearing a Thunder uniform. That margin is narrowed.
Oklahoma City has been truly elite this season and they have such a multifaceted approach to the game. While the Bucks have been making a push lately and Giannis presents a matchup problem, what OKC brings overall is elite on both sides of the floor. The Bucks will need to win from the perimeter, but OKC is smothering from beyond the arc.
This is a spot for the up-and-coming team to take the Cup and I'll lay the points with OKC.
For an SGP, I'll take Thunder Moneyline, Giannis 30+ Points, Middleton 4+ Assists, and SGA 25+ Points, a number he's hit in 15 straight games.
Best Bet: Thunder -5.5 (-112)
Same Game Parlay Pick
- Thunder Moneyline
- Giannis Antetokounmpo 30+ Points
- Khris Middleton 4+ Assists
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 25+ Points
Parlay Odds: +330
