The Milwaukee Bucks (38-29) and Golden State Warriors (39-29) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10:00 p.m. ET at the Chase Center in San Francisco, California. The game will broadcast live on NBA TV.
The Warriors need a rest. The Bucks need a win. Continue below for my Bucks vs. Warriors prediction and NBA picks for Tuesday, March 18.
The Bucks are 3-point favorites over the Warriors on the spread (Bucks -3), with the over/under set at 227.5 total points. Milwaukee is a -155 favorite to win outright, while Golden State is +130 to pull off the upset.
Bucks vs. Warriors Prediction, Pick
Spread
I’ll lay the points with Milwaukee to get the win over Golden State, likely without Steph Curry.
Over/Under
Steph or no Steph, I like the under at 227.5.
My Pick: Under 227.5
Bucks vs. Warriors Odds
| Bucks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 227.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 227.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
- Bucks vs. Warriors spread: Bucks -3
- Bucks vs. Warriors over/under: 227.5 points
- Bucks vs. Warriors moneyline: Bucks -155, Warriors +130
- Bucks vs. Warriors best bet: Under 227.5
My Warriors vs. Bucks best bet is on the under at 227.5 total points, with the best line currently available at Fanatics. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Bucks vs. Warriors Preview
This opened Warriors -2.5, moved to Warriors -3, then after the Warriors’ loss to the Nuggets, it moved all the way to Bucks -3 when Steve Kerr said that Steph Curry is exhausted and will likely sit this game. That’s a hefty move for one player that seems like an overreaction, but it also probably factors in the possibility of the Warriors sitting Draymond Green and/or Jimmy Butler or other players.
Typically I’d come back the other way here and fade the market overreaction. But I make this game Bucks -1.5 fully healthy with Golden State’s mediocre home court advantage ATS. So if any players other than Curry are out, this is a clear spot for Milwaukee and even if it’s just Curry, I still lean Bucks with the chance for free throws to get over the single-possession line.
The Bucks are 4-6 ATS this season against teams on the second night of a back-to-back, while Golden State is 5-6 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back.
This opened at 233.5 which was a great number but has already moved all the to 227.5. I stll like the under, but at a lower unit investment.
Golden State Warriors
For the purposes of this guide, let’s assume Curry’s out and the rest of the Warriors play. Golden State’s defense can slow down the Bucks. Milwaukee is 8-15 against teams with a top-10 defense this season, with a 23rd-ranked -2.4 spread differential, per Cleaning The Glass.
The Bucks have the 17th-ranked offense against those elite defenses this season.
Golden State has the size and physicality to not get completely run over by Giannis Antetkounmpo as much as anyone can. They challenge three-point shooters and have players like Gary Payton to close over screens on Damian Lillard.
Jimmy Butler, if he plays, has always been the biggest villain to Milwaukee. They simply cannot handle his specific style of play, and the “Playoff Jimmy” thing largely comes from his exploits against them.
Butler is 13-11 against the Bucks since 2020, but just 5-5 in the regular season in that span, and has lost five of the last six regular season matchups.
The Bucks are already the third-lowest team in points in the paint per 100 possessions, and the Warriors are top-10 in opponent PITP allowed. This should be a slugfest.
Milwaukee Bucks
A funny thing with the Warriors? They’re not great at shooting threes. They shoot a ton of them, 3rd in three-point rate, but are only 13th in percentage. Good! Not great.
Milwaukee, on the other hand, is 2nd in three-point percentage. Taurean Prince, in particular, has been great there.
Golden State, interestingly, is middle of the pack in both three-pointers allowed and three-point percentage allowed. So while the Bucks may struggle to get easy buckets down low outside of Giannis’ usual array, they should be able to keep up their 3-point standards.
Bucks vs. Warriors Betting Predictions
Under 227.5
A slugfest game without Steph between two good defenses with mediocre offenses whose offensive weaknesses match the opponent’s strengths defensively.
Bucks -3
Without Curry (and especially without other Warriors), this line is light. Make sure to wait for the injury report before the game so you know what you’re buying into.
Best Bet: Under 227.5 (-110)
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Bucks -3
- Under 227.5
Parlay Payout: +240
Warriors vs. Bucks Betting Trends
