Cavaliers vs Celtics Props Tuesday | Game 1 NBA Expert Pick (May 7)

Cavaliers vs Celtics Props Tuesday | Game 1 NBA Expert Pick (May 7) article feature image
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David Liam Kyle/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Darius Garland

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Cavaliers vs Celtics Props Tuesday | Game 1 NBA Expert Pick (May 7)

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Tuesday, May 7
7 p.m. ET
TNT
Boston Celtics Logo
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Darius Garland

Under 5.5 Assists (-106)

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Darius Garland stayed under this number in four of the seven games against the Magic in the opening series. However, based on his underlying passing metrics, I think he's due for some regressions.

Garland's teammates shot 54% on his potential assists during the regular season, but shot 57% on his potential assists during the seven games against Orlando.

We should expect that to take a bit of a hit going forward, especially against the Celtics, who allow the fifth-lowest assist rate per 100 possessions.

Garland's pass rate took a big hit in the opening series. He averages 1.6 passes per minute during the regular season, but it was just 1.2 against the Magic.

The number of potential assists he will be able to have during the playoffs will be much lower if that trend continues and he's due for his teammates to covert on fewer of them.

I'm projecting Garland with around a 60% chance to stay under 5.5 assists tonight.

Pick: Darius Garland Under 5.5 Assists (-106)

About the Author
Sean is The Action Network's Director of Predictive Analytics. He was named the No. 1 fantasy football draft ranker of 2019 by FantasyPros, where he's also finished as the top in-season ranker in three of the past five seasons

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