The Boston Celtics (52-19) and Sacramento Kings (35-35) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10:00 p.m. ET at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. The game will be broadcast live on NBA League Pass.
The Celtics are 4-point favorites over the Kings on the spread (Celtics -4), with the over/under set at 223.5 total points. Boston is a -175 favorite to win outright, while Sacramento is +145 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Celtics vs. Kings predictions and NBA picks for Monday, March 24.
Celtics vs. Kings Picks, Prediction
Spread
While I'd lean to the Kings with the line as high as +4.5, the Celtics are in a revenge spot after losing 114-97 in January on their home court. As a result, I prefer to pass on the spread and target this matchup from a different angle.
Moneyline
The Celtics' moneyline at -175 does offer some interest. Boston has won five straight games, including 10 of its last 11. We could look to revisit the Celtics as part of our same-game parlay.
Over/Under
The total offers our best edge in this game. Both teams rank in the league's bottom-half in terms of pace, making the Under worth consideration.
My Pick: Under 223.5
Celtics vs. Kings Odds
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 223.5 -110o / -110u | -175 |
| Kings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 223.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
- Celtics vs. Kings spread: Celtics -4
- Celtics vs. Kings over/under: 223.5 total points
- Celtics vs. Kings moneyline: Celtics -175, Kings +145
- Celtics vs. Kings best bet: Under 223.5 (-115)
My Kings vs. Celtics best bet is on the Under at 225.5 total points, with the best line currently available at Fanatics. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Celtics vs. Kings Preview
I always look for reliable data points when assessing a matchup, and one thing we've seen this season is the Celtics defense travels well away from home. Boston's Defensive Rating (108.7) on the road is 3.4 points better than when playing at TD Garden.
This defensive mindset is the hallmark of a good team, and given those numbers, it's not entirely surprising the Celtics are the most profitable team on the highway for under-bettors (22-13, 63%).
If we turn to the Kings, they tend not to play with a traditional point guard since trading away De'Aaron Fox. His departure could explain why the Kings are playing slower when getting into their offense. Moreover, Sacramento is a below-average team in key metrics such as perimeter shooting (24th) and scoring inside the paint (17th).
The Kings are also not explosive in transition, ranking 20th in fastbreak points (14.7). Therefore, when you think about high-quality shots, there's not a ton that might be available for the Kings against this juggernaut Celtics defense. Combining these factors with potentially a slower-paced game makes it easier to see why the under has value in this spot.
Given how the Celtics tend to dig in on the road, the under is on a 4-0 run when they're a favorite on short rest laying single-digits. This matchup has the making of a lower-scoring game, and I like our chances of that trend continuing on Monday night.
Celtics vs. Kings Prediction
The Celtics were particularly poor when the two sides met earlier this season, shooting just 26.8% (11-of-41) from beyond the arc. In comparison, the Kings sank 18 3-pointers — almost 5.5 more than their season average. Therefore, Sacramento's performance is much more representative of an outlier, as I expect we'll see some regression to the mean.
This revenge spot is particularly interesting for the Celtics, and given their current form, I'm willing to back them to extend their winning streak to six games.
Our play on the under does have some correlation with Boston's Jayson Tatum staying under his scoring prop of 30.5 points. Tatum has failed to cover this number in seven straight games on the road. He has also stayed under it in his last two meetings against Sacramento.
Overall, the Celtics have a lower Offensive Rating (119.4 vs. 122.2) than in the previous campaign while playing at a slower pace (97.01 vs. 97.98). They have more balance up and down their roster, with six players averaging double-figures. With Taytum scoring below 30.5 points in 62% of his games this season, the Under is a solid play to parlay with a Celtics victory.
Best Bet: Under 223.5 (-115)
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Celtics Moneyline
- Jayson Tatum Under 30.5 Points
Parlay Payout: +210
Kings vs. Celtics Betting Trends
