Game 4 of the NBA Finals between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks occurs tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Keep reading for the NBA first basket props I like for Celtics vs. Mavericks Game 4.
Jrue Holiday First Celtics Basket (+490) & First Basket Exact Layup (+2900)
Across the playoffs, Jrue Holiday has taken Boston’s first shot in 5-of-17 starts (29.4%). He’s currently tied for the fourth-most first-quarter field goal attempts in this series, and his ability to bully Dallas’ guards while avoiding its defensive wings is a massive advantage.
I also like him to score first via a layup, which has been 40% of his first-quarter attempts through three games.
Holiday is also shooting 12-for-13 in the restricted area this series and 40% of his total attempts have come from this area. He’s burning Dallas as both a cutter and driver, and he has the strength to finish through the trees.
I would put 0.7 units on Holiday first Celtics basket and play it down to +400 odds.
Meanwhile, I recommend 0.3 units for his exact method, down to +2400 odds.
Luka Doncic First Basket Exact Other (+1100)
For clarity, “other” is classified as any 2-point shot that’s not a layup.
Luka Doncic has taken the game’s first shot 25% of the time in these playoffs, and he owns Dallas' first shot in 40% of games. Both marks lead all 10 starters.
The Slovenian loves to utilize his in-between game far more than attacking the basket. So far in this series, Doncic owns 14 restricted-area attempts compared to 32 attempts from the mid-range or paint (non-RA).
His shot diet drives this disparity, but Boston’s defense also loves to surrender in-between shots rather than give up rim attempts.
Doncic has cashed this prop in 4-of-20 playoff games (20%), including once against Boston. His +1100 odds have an 8.3% implied probability.
I would play this at a half unit and down to +900 odds.
Al Horford 3-Point Field Goal in 1Q 12:00 – 9:00 (+420)
Let’s run this one back.
Al Horford is tied with Derrick White for the most wide-open 3-point attempts in the first quarter of this series, and that’s not an accident.
Boston’s drivers are blowing past Dallas’ perimeter defenders and kicking out to shooters. Its 3.7 first-quarter corner 3-point attempts per game would've easily led the NBA this year.
Horford is 5-for-8 from the corners against Dallas compared to 0-for-5 from above-the-break, so this benefits the big man in terms of volume and efficiency.
Overall, Boston’s five-out offense is racking up excellent looks for Horford, and he’s the man Dallas is content to leave relatively open in order to help inside.
The veteran has hit this prop in 2-of-3 games in this series, and his +420 odds have a 19.2% implied probability.
The line definitely has value. I would play it at a half unit and down to +330 odds.
