The Dallas Mavericks don't have to completely reinvent themselves in Game 2 of the NBA Finals.
It would help a lot, honestly, but it's not reasonable for them to do. You never want to abandon everything that got you to the Finals, and they can win without doing so.
Game 1 was not a Boston A-Game. It might have been a Boston A-Game in the first quarter, but it wasn't an A-Game. The Celtics shot 47% from the field and 38% from 3 — not bad but not great. They had more turnovers, Dallas had more points in the paint (because of Boston's 3-pointer volume) and the Mavericks had more second-chance points.
But Game 1 was an abject disaster from a Dallas perspective. They shot terribly and couldn't figure out how to counter Boston's defense despite nine days of prep. Kyrie Irving played horribly, and their defense was absolutely roasted in a number of ways.
Dallas can win Game 2 by the old-fashioned "play better" adjustment. Better perimeter containment on defense. Better offensive scheme. Better shooting by Irving and Luka Dončić. Better shooting luck on Kristaps Porziņģis contested fadeaways.
Boston has lost two of its three Game 2's in the playoffs so far, largely by getting caught by shooting variance. That happens when you shoot as many 3s as they do. If they miss everything and Dallas hits a lot of contested 3s, that's a pretty easy path to break the Celtics' model.
Jason Kidd's Mavericks are 10-4 in the playoffs the last two runs after a loss, 5-1 in these playoffs. Dončić averages 35 points after a loss in the playoffs.
Teams down 0-1 on the road as a 'dog in the Finals are 8-9 since 2003. They still lose more than they win, but in all other rounds, teams down 0-1 in Game 2 on the road as 'dogs are 49-155 (24%). So these teams perform way better in Game 2 historically.
(Notably, these teams in the Finals are also 9-7 ATS. One game flips and it's .500 but that's interesting. Teams that covered as road 'dogs are also 8-1 straight up.)
However, Game 1 showed a huge number of matchup problems for Dallas that will continue to be problems. We'll look at those plus some of the things they can counter with and how to bet them in Game 2.
Instead of just giving you picks, since I can't predict the actual adjustments, we're going to play "choose your own adventure." I'll give you some Mavs adjustments and if you buy that they'll use them, or not, you can make plays based on those.
Better Containment Starts by Answering the Horford Question
Both teams switched screens constantly in Game 1, except when the Mavericks involved Porziņģis. In previous rounds, the perimeter Mavericks were able to contain because they were facing opponents that wanted to try and get to the rim, so they'd just funnel them to the actually good defenders on the team.
With Al Horford spacing here, Jaylen Brown gets Dončić on an island. Dončić overplays to Brown's left to force him middle (while being burnt to a crisp on the crossover) but because Horford's in the corner, Daniel Gafford can't make the help rotation effectively.
Dallas is in the Finals because of their rim protection (and also shooting luck). If that's not present because of the spacing the Celtics present, there aren't real counters to this beyond picking a poison.
Here's what happened when the Mavericks closed out too hard on Horford:
This is more of a pressure point than you'd think based on Horford's 10 points.
The Celtics don't shoot much in the paint and only generated 36% of their points in the paint. But their offense is dependent on drive and kick. Dončić and Irving are not going to get notably better in most matchups.
The Mavericks can help by committing more to what got them here, keeping their centers lodged in the paint and daring Horford to hit 3s. Horford is 42% from 3 for the season and 35% in the playoffs. That's a number you can at least try and see if you can steal possessions by helping off Horford.
Choose Your Adventure
If you think the Mavericks will look to pack the paint and dare Horford and other shooters to hit 3s, you can play Horford over 1.5 3s (-130, FanDuel) based on his volume, with an escalator. You can also, or alternatively play Brown under 22.5 points (+105, DraftKings). Brown averages the most points in the paint on the Celtics in the playoffs at 13.6. He had 10 in Game 1.
If you think the Mavericks will continue to respect Horford's 3, you can play Brown over 23.5 points (-108, FanDuel) or you can play the under on Jayson Tatum assists under 5.5 (-108, Caesars). Tatum has the most 3-point assists to Horford by far. He's more likely to drive and attack if the bigs aren't at the rim.
Turn Tatum Into Dončić
I don't mean make Jayson Tatum into as good of a player as Dončić, I mean try and convert Tatum into the kind of Game 2 performance that Dončić had in Game 1: high scoring, low efficiency, low playmaking.
The Mavericks' Game 1 strategy was to load up on Tatum like he was Anthony Edwards. Look at the "boxes and elbows" the Mavericks threw at him on this possession:
It worked; Tatum was 6-of-16 from the field with five assists and six turnovers. But he also had 14 potential assists, double that of Dončić, and was a team-best +19.
The Mavericks need Boston to shoot fewer 3s. To do that, they have to contain the drive-and-kick action, related to the above problem with Horford.
If they don't send as much help on Tatum, he might go off individually. But Dončić actually did well when matched up on Tatum. There's something to be said for leaning into the matchup, putting Dončić on Tatum and living with post-up ISOs. Make Tatum a scorer only, and while he'll score, it's likely he'll score more from 2 which takes away the math advantage and lets Derrick Jones Jr., P.J. Washington and Josh Green defend closeouts, which they are way better at.
Even if they don't want to risk Tatum wearing out Dončić or getting him in foul trouble, there's value to making Tatum a volume scorer and not over-helping.
Choose Your Adventure
If you think the Mavericks try to make Tatum more of a scorer in Game 2, you can play an SGP of over 26.5 points and under 5.5 assists for +220 at BetMGM. An alternative angle is the Horford 3s under, or Derrick White under 2.5 3-pointers at +140 at DraftKings. When Tatum has less than six assists, White averages 2.6 3PM in the playoffs; when Tatum has more than five dimes, that number jumps above four.
If you think the Mavericks continue to try and contain Tatum, just play his assists over and look for head-to-head opportunities with Tatum.
A Twofer
The most surprising thing to me from Game 1 was the absence of double-screen action for Dallas.
Before we get there, let's go back to Game 1. The Mavericks had almost no lobs. No lobs, no corner 3s — that's doom for how Dallas wants its offense. The reason is that the switch means there's no open roll for the alley-oop finisher out of pick and roll.
The Mavericks also wanted to attack Horford. Dončić was defended by Horford on the most shots in Game 1 (eight). Luka converted just one, and frequently settled for stepback 3s. He'll probably make more, and it's something they want.
A really easy way to counter switching defense is to slip the pick, which gets the screener downhill very quickly. But the Celtics simply didn't allow that switch in Game 1.
Horford shows for just a second vs. Tatum and then rolls with Gafford. This is a big key. You can fall into traps if you soft switch everything as a crutch. Boston only does it when it needs to.
But a better way to mess with switch is double screens.
Let me take you back to the Wolves series, when the Mavericks absolutely vanquished the No. 1 defense in the league with tons of actions like this:
The Celtics can navigate this, it's just a matter of knowing the assignments. But by having one of the screeners or slip, or having one of them then re-screen for the other screener, the Mavs can get the big downhill.
So how did that go in Game 1? Can't tell you. The Mavericks only ran it twice in Game 1. It was clearly a set they wanted to save for later in the series.
If Boston goes to it, Washington and Jones can get looks flaring out of it, and Gafford and Dereck Lively II can get more lob opportunities.
Choose Your Adventure
If you think Dallas uses this more, playing Dončić's assists over is probably a solid play (if you think it works). If you think Dallas will keep it reserved, play the under. If you think this gets used more, Lively's over on points in particular is a good look.
