Celtics vs. Mavericks Odds, Pick
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -108 | 211.5 -108o / -112u | -112 |
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -112 | 211.5 -108o / -112u | -104 |
Here's everything you need to know about Celtics vs. Mavericks on Friday, June 14 — our expert prediction and betting picks.
The Bostons Celtics took a commanding 3-0 series lead and it would take a historic comeback for Luka Doncic and the Mavericks to even force a Game 7, let alone win the NBA Finals. No team down 3-0 has ever come back from this deficit, and while there have been teams that fit the profile for a potential comeback, the Mavericks don't seem to fit the bill.
Can Dallas beat the Celtics four consecutive times and give them their first loss since May 9th? Probably not.
However, we are presented with Game 4 and there still is plenty of value and exploitable angles in what could be the final game of the NBA Season. So, let's get to my Celtics vs. Mavericks pick.
Boston Celtics
The Celtics have been tremendous throughout this series and have a +11.4 Net Rating on the series as they're up 3-0. There are a number of different reasons we can point to as to why Boston has been so dominant, but one of the most telling is the shot profile.
Even without Kristaps Porzingis in Game 3 (who, given the lead, I'd be surprised to see again this series), the Celtics continued to have an elite process. The Celtics are taking 48.8% of their shots from 3-point range compared to 29.2% for Dallas. So, even though both teams are shooting very poorly compared to their regular season numbers, Boston is out-mathing Dallas. Over the series, Boston has gone 43-of-127 from 3, compared to Dallas' 22-of-78. That margin alone is worth 21 points per game to Boston.
While the 3s are a big part of the story, the underlying gameplan has been critical for Boston's success. We talked about Porzingis and Al Horford as bigs who provide excellent spacing, but it's more nuanced than just that. Boston's ability to play five out with players who can get their own shot or improvise for teammates has made them significantly better than their opponents. Boston is able to invert matchups and force opponents into rotations with strong ball movement. Every time the Mavericks send help, the Celtics punish them.
Dallas had been able to scheme around some of its defensive deficiencies before by packing the paint and not allowing opponents to score at the rim, but here, those blowbys aren't necessarily generating points on the drive. They're generating buckets because it starts a decision-making cycle for the Mavericks.
The Celtics are forcing poor defenders to constantly perform and think through rotations at a high level. It is exhausting and mistakes are being made. But even if a mistake isn't made, it's the choice of defending Sam Hauser, or Derrick White, or Jaylen Brown or Horford on the perimeter, the options simply go from bad to worse. That's due to talent and scheme.
The stunning thing about this series is that Boston has yet to have an elite shooting performance. Boston has yet to crack the 40% threshold for a game from deep and while Dallas' defense is strong, Boston has shown throughout the season and playoffs that those ceiling games are possible. In a game where they can come out and play with a 3-0 lead, maybe those shots begin to fall at an even higher clip.
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks are backed into a corner and despite being in every game, are on the verge of competing for the "most competitive sweep" in NBA history. They simply haven't been good enough on the offensive side of the ball. Boston's offense has made them work, but Dallas hasn't been blown out at any point during this series.
Dallas can't get anything going offensively. The Mavericks lived on a steady diet of corner 3s throughout the playoffs, but Boston has cut those off completely. Prior to the NBA Finals, Dallas took 13% of its shots from the corner. That number is just 4.9% in the NBA Finals. Looking at the entire postseason, the 13% would have led the league and the 4.9% would be 1.7 percentage points below the Kings and the Bucks, who were the worst in the postseason.
It's not as simple as just "take more!" As much as I spoke about how Boston has been able to generate 3s with its spacing, the Mavericks can't do the same. While Doncic has been able to get his and Kyrie Irving finally showed signs of life in Game 3, the rest of the team isn't known for creating their own shots and Tim Hardaway Jr. looks like a shell of the player who was a 14.4 ppg scorer during the regular season.
Dallas is running out of outs and being unable to complete the 20-2 run in Game 3 seems damning for its hopes moving forward.
Celtics vs. Mavericks
Betting Pick & Prediction
So what do we bet? Well, the b0oks have made the Mavericks favorites, or at worst a pick, in Game 4. That's creating value in some of the player futures markets.
Doncic is running away with scoring leader, but there's some narrow value in the rebounds and assists leader markets. For rebounds, Doncic (27) leads Jayson Tatum (26), Dererk Lively (25), Jrue Holiday (23) and P.J. Washington (23). Lively (+350) has a touch of value there given him entering the starting lineup is one of the few adjustments Dallas has left to make.
For assists, Tatum (22) leads Doncic (18) and Brown (17). It's absolutely notable that Tatum and Brown both lead Doncic in potentials per game. Tatum shouldn't be an underdog (+130 at DraftKings) with a four-assist lead. If you haven't bet Tatum, I would consider it here. As for Brown, he is +5000 (at DraftKings/Bet365) to lead the series in assists. It is extremely unlikely, but if this series goes more than four games, he'd be live based on his potentials. He is +1500 at FanDuel to lead Game 4 in assists and that is worth a sprinkle.
For this game, I am going to grab the Celtics Team Total Over at 105.5. They have exceeded that total in 11-of-17 playoff games and have scored 105, 106 and 107 in the Finals. I like this number given some of the additional offensive upside the Celtics have due to their shot profile. Plus, if Dallas is able to win, it's likely due just to an uptick in its own offense, as opposed to tightening up on defense to limit the Celtics.
Picks: Celtics Team Total Over 105.5, Jaylen Brown Game 4 Assists Leader (+1500 FanDuel — Sprinkle)
