Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers will tip off at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN on Tuesday.
Keep reading below for my NBA first basket prop picks for Celtics vs. Pacers on Tuesday, May 21.
Although Al Horford will likely win the tip more often than not, it’s still a bit murky. Therefore, I am rolling with Jaylen Brown to score Boston’s first basket, which includes free throws.
Brown took Boston’s first shot in about 31% of his regular-season starts, which led the team. Although he has only taken the first shot in one of six games since Kristaps Porziņģis’ injury, he has cashed their first basket three times.
This matchup also heavily favors him. Indiana gave up the most restricted area attempts per 100 possessions this regular season, along with the second-most paint attempts. Opponents are still exploiting them near the basket this postseason too. Brown paces Boston in attempts per game at the rim, so his shot profile places him in an excellent position to score.
Given Indiana’s rim protection woes, I’m also playing Brown first basket exact layup. His slashing should give him plenty of rim attempts this series, so it’s worth a bet at +1700 odds (5.5% implied probability). Overall, Brown’s first basket usage and shot profile make him a tantalizing option against Indiana.
I would play Brown first Celtics basket at 1u and Brown first basket exact layup at 0.4u.
Jrue Holiday did not come close to matching Brown’s team first shot percentage; however, his 20% mark was second best of the current starters. Holiday’s first basket usage has also taken a leap this playoffs. The veteran owns Boston’s first attempt in 4-of-10 games, including 2-of-6 games since Horford entered the starting lineup.
Plus, Holiday has averaged the third-most paint attempts during Boston’s playoff run, so he can take advantage of Indiana’s weaknesses.
Holiday's +450 odds hold an 18.1% implied probability. If a Celtics starter was drawn at random, then they would have a 20% chance to cash the first basket. Factor in Holiday’s first basket usage and paint attempt, and the veteran easily clears the 18.1% threshold. I expect this line to take a significant hit once the series progresses.
Playing this prop at 0.6u is my recommendation.
