Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Indiana Pacers and Boston Celtics takes place tonight at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Keep reading for my NBA first-basket prop picks for the Pacers vs. Celtics matchup on Thursday, May 23.
Jrue Holiday First Celtics FG (+500, DraftKings) & First Basket Exact: Free Throws (120/1, FanDuel)
During the regular season, Holiday took Boston’s first shot at the third-largest rate. With Kristaps Porzingis out, Jaylen Brown is the only current starter who secured it at a larger rate.
In addition to desirable first-basket usage, his Game 1 performance inspired volume-scorer hopes for the remainder of the series. Holiday finished with 28 points on 10-of-16 shooting from the field, and routinely targeted Indiana’s small guards by playing bully ball and ruthlessly sealing his defender in the post.
The Pacers can't send a bigger wing to mark him either because Aaron Nesmith and Pascal Siakam must stay on Jayson Tatum and Brown, respectively. Therefore, Holiday should once again have ample opportunity to display his size advantage.
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As a result, Indiana’s guards could be foul-prone in Game 2 to stop Holiday from bulldozing his way for an easy rim attempt. Taking him to score the first basket via free throws at 120/1 odds (0.83% implied probability) is subsequently worth a sprinkle.
These lines are not set correctly to me, so I would play Holiday to score the first Celtics field goal at one unit (1u) and play it down to +350. Meanwhile, I recommend playing Holiday's first basket to come on free throws at 0.2 units and playing it down to 100/1.
Jaylen Brown First Basket (+420, FanDuel)& First Basket Exact: Free Throws (+7500, FanDuel)
Brown attempted Boston’s first shot at the largest rate this year, and he earned it in Game 1 against Indiana. He saw four first-quarter field goal attempts in the restricted area, which isn’t surprising considering the Pacers allowed the second-largest first-quarter rate in that category during the regular season. His slashing will be a consistent theme for Boston throughout the series.
Because the veteran will likely live inside the paint, free throw opportunities will be abundant for him. He had eight attempts from the line in Game 1, and he should hover around that mark again tonight. It’s worth noting that Indiana finished the regular season last in opponent free throw attempt rate, too.
Overall, I recommend taking Brown first basket at 0.6u and playing it down to +400. As for Brown first basket exact free throws, I would play it at 0.2u and back it down to +6000.
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