Celtics vs Pacers Picks & Prediction: NBA Series Preview
Not many people expected the Pacers to be playing in the Eastern Conference Finals, but here we are.
Indiana is this year's Cinderella squad after dispatching whatever was left of the Bucks' and Knicks' rosters to survive and advance. The Pacers will now face Boston after the Celtics advanced against the corpses of the Cavs and Heat.
Yeah, the Eastern Conference playoffs haven't been great.
Only four times in NBA history has a No. 6 seed or worse made the NBA Finals: the 1981 Rockets, 1995 Rockets, 1999 Knicks and 2023 Heat. The last two won as No. 8 seeds with a bunch of injury help and a wonky shortened season in New York's case.
The '95 Rockets were the defending champs coming off an injury-plagued regular season. And the '81 Rockets were 40-42 and somehow lucked into another 40-42 opponent to get to the Finals.
Suffice it to say that history suggests this may be the end of the road for Indiana since the Celtics are pretty obviously a much bigger challenge than any of those teams faced.
But you already know Boston is a huge favorite. How do we actually bet the series?
When the Celtics Are on Offense
By the regular-season numbers, these were the two best offenses in the NBA. But they were not the two best defenses.
Indiana's defense has been better since the addition of Pascal Siakam and the insertion of Andrew Nembhard into the lineup, but it's still below average at best.
The Pacers foul a ton and get crushed on the boards. The Celtics should find a real edge in both areas. Plus, Indiana has no real matchup on the wing for Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown.
Tatum was an absolute monster in four games against Indiana this season. He averaged 32.5 points, 11 rebounds and 6.8 assists and is a big (and rightful) favorite to lead the series in both points and rebounding. Brown, meanwhile, averaged 28.4 PPG himself against Indiana with a 30, 31 and 40.
The Celtics are going to score.
Kristaps Porzingis is officially out for Game 1 with still no timetable for return, but that may not be a huge factor in this series. Boston is better with Porzingis, but the Celtics should prioritize getting KP healthy and perhaps taking the bubble wrap off the bench for 20 minutes to shake off the rust a couple of times before the Finals.
The Celtics lead the NBA in 3-point attempts, but Indiana allows the fewest. Usually, that's because the Pacers defense is a receiving line right to the rim, but could Indiana run Boston off the arc and goad them into settling for the bad 2s Boston often falls into?
Maybe, but the Celtics got up over 38 3s a game against Indiana in the regular season.
There's always a chance Boston's many jumpers just don't fall, but chances are they'll score plenty in this series. Celtics team total overs and alts look like a play.
When the Pacers Are on Offense
While the Pacers also have a top offense, at least in theory, the difference on this side of the ball is that Boston has a great defense too.
Indiana is an elite 2-point team — the Pacers just made 40-of-55 2s in Game 7 against the Knicks! — but the Pacers will find life much tougher against Boston, which ranked second in the NBA in 2-point percentage defensively.
This could be a jarring experience for Indiana's offense after facing a mediocre Bucks defense missing its best defender in Giannis Antetokounmpo and then a good Knicks defense that lost its best defenders in OG Anunoby and Mitchell Robinson.
Credit Indiana for making it this far. A team can only beat the teams in front of it. But we should be realistic about what the Pacers have accomplished.
With all of the injuries for Milwaukee and New York, the combined best five healthy players Indiana actually closed out its series against is something like Patrick Beverley, Donte DiVincenzo, Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez, with Deuce McBride and Isaiah Hartenstein off the bench. Is that even a 35-win team in the East? Do they make the East play-in?
The Celtics are a different animal altogether. The Pacers won't find an edge on the glass or at the line on either end of the floor.
If Indiana wants to win games, it's simply going to have to out-eFG the Celtics — and it may need Boston to miss a heap of shots on the same night its own shots are falling.
The Pacers have had a big depth advantage in their series and could get that again with Porzingis out — though, we'll see how viable guys like T.J. McConnell and Obi Toppin are against a great offense.
McConnell could run into the same problem as Tyrese Haliburton, with both players having their hands full against Derrick White and Jrue Holiday, the best pair of guard defenders in the league.
Haliburton has had an up-and-down postseason. He's struggled at times to find his own offense, and the back injury hasn't gone away.
Haliburton was this series' best player at his best in the regular season. Indiana needs him to be that to have any real shot here.
Could Siakam be the best player in a game or two? Can Rick Carlisle coach circles around Joe Mazzulla? Can the Pacers speed Boston up and get the Celtics to play sloppy, undisciplined basketball?
That's likely the formula for the Pacers. Indiana isn't good enough to beat Boston; the Pacers will have to invite the Celtics to beat themselves.
Best Bet: Celtics -1.5 in Series (-340)
Run it back!
This is the exact bet we made on Boston last round — Celtics -1.5 on the series spread — and it ended up being maybe my favorite bet of the round.
It was the most stress-free bet on the board — even after the Celtics gave away a second straight Game 2 — and cashed with a full game to spare.
On paper, the Celtics should have a good chance of sweeping the Pacers.
But we know Boston doesn't sweep teams. The Celtics tend to mess around and no-show for a game or two every series, getting overconfident and sloppy just when it looks like the series is on lock.
Indiana is a good basketball team. The Pacers will score enough to steal a game, maybe even two — but that's the most I can give them.
Last round, we hit Boston -1.5 series spread for -390. That seems like a lot of juice, but it turned out to be a sweat-free 26% ROI. If we just roll over those winnings and bet it here at -340, that sets us up for a combined 63% ROI on a month of low-pressure Celtics ball against teams Boston is just way better than.
Juice or not, you could do much worse than an easy 63% return on investment over a month.
Get your money in, run it back, and make some dinner plans spending your winnings in advance rather than fretting over which game Boston randomly decides to no-show for.
Props & Other Angles
Tatum should be in for a big series. He's as short as -500 to lead the series in points and -500 to lead it in rebounds at some books.
If the Celtics win the series and Tatum leads the series in both scoring and rebounding, he'll be overwhelmingly likely to walk away as the ECF MVP too, where he's priced at -210. Remember, he averaged almost 33/11/7 against the Pacers this season.
You can argue that Tatum for ECF MVP is a better bet than Celtics -1.5, especially since Tatum could still cash even if Boston has to go to Game 7.
But that also feels a bit cute, especially when a potentially short series invites hot shooting variance and unpredictable voters.
If you buy the Pacers winning a game, it probably has to happen fairly early in the series.
Maybe Indiana's offense and speed catches Boston off guard in Game 1 after the Celtics just spent a month playing slow, mediocre offenses.
More likely, the Celtics get a big Game 1 win against an exhausted Pacers team, but maybe they come out overconfident and blow another Game 2.
Or perhaps they win both of those but Indiana defends its home court to steal Game 3.
Do the Pacers get one — and exactly one — of those? Boston is +110 at bet365 to lead the series 2-1 after three games. If you don't think Boston gets the sweep, that seems to be the most likely scenario through three.
The best game-to-game angle is probably just waiting to back the Celtics after that inevitable loss.
Since the NBA Bubble, Boston is an awesome 13-3 against the spread when favored in the playoffs after losing as a favorite. The Celtics do screw around and give games away, but they also show up focused the following game and get right back on track.
That's why the Celtics are so tough, and it's also why Boston is such a huge favorite to take care of business in this series — one way or another.
