Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Odds
| Celtics Odds | +4.5 |
| Warriors Odds | -4.5 |
| Over/Under | 215 |
| Date | Sunday, June 5 |
| Time | 8 p.m. ET |
| Channel | ABC |
*Odds as of Sunday morning, according to FanDuel
The public is riding with the Warriors for Game 2 of the NBA Finals despite a flat, uninspiring performance on Thursday that granted home court to the Celtics.
Golden State's spread has about 73% of the individual bets and 82% of the total money across all major American sportsbooks, according to the Action Network's proprietary tracking data.
The Warriors were outscored 40-16 in the fourth quarter en route to a 120-108 loss in Game 1. Golden State had been up as much as much as 12 early in the fourth before laying an egg.
Nonetheless, the historical betting data is backing the Warriors to cover tonight, too.
A PRO system developed by the Action Network indicates the Warriors' spread at -4 fits a historically profitable NBA postseason betting trend that has returned an impressive 19% return on investment (ROI) since 2005.
Over the last 17 years, if you had wagered $100 per game on the roughly 25 NBA playoff games per year that have fit this system, then you'd be up over $5,500 today. That's about $325 per playoffs, good for a solid 61% win rate over a lengthy sample size.
For reference, a success rate of 52.5% is enough to break even.
The PRO system lights up when playoff favorites receive a ton of sharp and big money bettors on their spread.
Specifically, a team fits the system when spread money % is greater than the spread individual bet %. In this instance, the difference is a solid 9%, meaning there's a substantial group of big moneyed bettors who are dropping heavy on the Warriors to cover tonight.
A caveat here to internalize is that this betting system has returned a 19% ROI over a very long sample size. While tonight may be the day to cash in, keep in mind that this is meant to be a long-term investment.
The best way to have maximized that 19% ROI is to have bet on every playoff team that has fit this system since April.
PRO Pick: Warriors -4.5 or better
