Check out this post for updated season win total odds and this post for my other 29 season win total picks.
All odds as of Thursday. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Chicago Bulls Win Total
The Case for the Over (31.5, DraftKings)
After dealing for Otto Porter, the Bulls went on a tiny run. They went 6-2 with Porter over the next three weeks before the wheels came off and Porter got hurt and eventually shut down for the year.
I don’t have the Bulls dramatically over their highest over number available in the market (33.5), but at 31.5 you’re banking they’re a team in the 30s in the East, with a roster with better defensive presence, a better point guard in Tomas Satoransky, better bigs like Thaddeus Young and (hopefully) the return of Wendell Carter Jr.
Their schedule is kind the first two months of the season, and they have no rest-disadvantage games until January, with a low miles traveled rate.
The team isn’t great, but the number is choice.
The Case for the Under (34.5, Caesars)
Well, it’s the Bulls. They’ve been a mess, they’re young and they play in the one East division with three likely playoff teams.
Carter Jr. and Zach LaVine have long injury issues. Young and Satoransky are the kinds of players nerdy basketball analysts adore (guilty!), but are they really difference-makers without star players to hold them up?
They close with a top-five schedule the final two months. Now, I typically prefer if I’m going over for teams to have tough closing slates, because the best teams are often resting players late in the year. But there’s also a chance the Bulls are outright tanking to close out the season if they’re at 25-ish wins to start March.
Jim Boylen’s a mystery; his gruff, old-school, drop-and-give-me-twenty approach seems outdated and at risk for a complete mutiny for the second time in a year. But there were also real signs that the team played for him, and those kinds of Scott Skiles-esque coaches can sometimes get short-term results at the cost of long-term sustainability.
It should be noted, however, that despite that post-All-Star blip, the Bulls finished with the second-worst Net Rating in the league after the All-Star break overall.
The Verdict
- The pick: Over 31.5
- Confidence: 7 out of 10
I like the over at anything below 32. I love it at DraftKings at 31.5; I like it OK at PointsBet at 32.5. I am outright nervous at 33.5-or-higher numbers posted at the Vegas books.
If you’re going this far, it might be worth considering Bulls to make the playoffs at +340 at DraftKings. The No. 8 seed in the East might legitimately need only 39 wins — and if you think they have a chance at 35, there’s a reasonable case to make for them sneaking into the postseason.
Porter really did make that much of a difference for them, he’s entering his prime and Satoransky and Thad Young make them more capable. Add in a bounce-back season from Lauri Markkanen, who I’m high on, and 31.5 is just too low not to take the over.
