Calling Giannis Antetetokounmpo "freak" is played out at this point. It's just so hard to avoid considering his insane physiological advantages over every other human trying to play basketball.
When I wrote on his MVP chances in preseason, it stood out that teammates said he was bigger, faster, stronger this year. So far, it has held true.
Antetokounmpo is on pace to absolutely shatter dunk records this season, averaging 4.3 per game. The highest total for dunks in a season in Basketball-Reference's database is 269 by Dwight Howard in 2007-08 (followed by about four seasons of early to mid-00's Shaq around the 250 mark).
Antetokounmpo has 130 dunks in 30 games.
If he manages to play in 45 of the remaining 50 Bucks games, that puts him at No. 1 by a huge margin (Notably, Basketball-Reference's database only goes back to 2001; the 80's and 90's might have had substantially higher totals).
On Christmas, the NBA has fed the poor Kristaps-Porzingis-less Knicks to the juggernaut Bucks, because part of our penance for five Christmas Day games is we have to suffer through a Knicks game. In our Fantasy Labs Prop Bet model, the over/under on Giannis Antetokounmpo points is set at 27.5 and the bet quality is a five, essentially making it a toss-up. So let's see if we can't use some analysis to give it a nudge, eh?
For starters, Antetokounmpo hasn't had many massive scoring nights this year. He's been focused on leading the team, distributing, and winning. He's hit 28 or more points in just 13 of his 30 games this season. He's also scored fewer than 20 in five games. However, in both games vs. these Knicks, he's gone over the bet mark, scoring 33 and 31 respectively.
I took a look at who guarded Antetokounmpo in those matchups based on the (admittedly often wonky) NBA.com matchup data. Noah Vonleh and Lance Thomas bore the worst of it, with Antetokounmpo scoring 32 of his 64 points on Vonleh alone in the two matchups.
Vonleh grades out poorly on the defensive end, though his overall impact on New York has been good this season (Effectively, the team is not as badwith Vonleh on the court this season. They lose by less with him than they do without him.)
Most of Antetkounmpo's points come from transition (good luck defending that) and in isolation where (again, best of luck to you). The Bucks surround him with four shooters and dare the opponent to find a physical matchup to contain him.
Spoiler alert: There isn't one. The Knicks even attempt to bring help. It doesn't matter:
There's just nothing you can do on account of his size and the length of his arms to be able to get the shot up. One of the things Antetokounmpo does is continuously take up space.
The Bucks have enabled this by adequately spacing the floor around him. Even if you stop him initially, he just keeps gaining ground, like an advancing army, claiming one foot at a time.
Seems pretty frustrating.
Per Synergy Sports, Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 1.016 points per possession on 63 such possessions in the two games vs. the Knicks. Now, Antetokounmpo only averages 25 scoring attempt possessions per game this season. So that puts him on the lower side, and makes the Knicks performances outlier.
So your question should be whether you believe the Knicks can hang long enough to keep him in the game through the fourth quarter and if the Bucks will keep feeding him.
On the first count, the Knicks have only been 9-point underdogs or more twice this season in the Garden, and are 1-1. But the Knicks have been blown out by 10 or more points in 14 of their 34 contests this year.
They got a win against the Bucks, however, and given the trend of the under hitting in Christmas Day contests, that might suppress overall scoring while keeping the game close and Antetokounmpo in the game in the fourth quarter.
If this were higher, at 29.5, the under would feel secure. But at 27.5, given the inability of the Knicks to match him with their better defenders, and given Vonleh's issues, especially in isolation (31st percentile), the lean needs to be on the over and a very Merry Christmas on-court for the Greek, freak or not.
