Check out this post for updated season win total odds and this post for my other 29 season win total picks.
All odds as of Thursday. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Cleveland Cavaliers Win Total
The Case for the Over (23.5, DraftKings)
OK, I can do this. I’m a professional. This is a thing I can do. I believe in myself. I am one with the Force and the Force is with me.
Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson were hurt almost the entire season. Their addition, even if they are traded by the deadline, will help.
There’s internal development from Collin Sexton, who shot 40% from deep last season and was in the 95th percentile in catch-and-shoot situations.
His problem areas, like finishing at the rim (47% shooting) and in transition (38th percentile per possession) are things that should naturally improve with more experience and body growth.
Darius Garland and John Henson could help. If nothing else, this team might be able to put up points under John Beilein. A median-level Offensive Rating in the Eastern Conference, even in the tough Central division, gets you at least to the high-teens, and it’s reasonable to think Love for a full season could get them over the top.
The Case for the Under (24.5, PointsBet)
They’re a rebuilding team with a rookie (NBA) head coach, with young guards and veterans who are likely to be dealt by the deadline.
They have a top-10 schedule through the first two months. Rebuilding teams that face tough beginnings tend to have the plug pulled earlier. They had the worst expected win-loss record in the league last season. They were truly as bad as their record said.
This is going to be a bottom-five defense in the league. Only the Hawks stand out as a team I think will be worse on that end.
You can build a decent defense with Love on the floor. You can’t build a decent defense with Love on the floor surrounded by kids who aren’t old enough to rent a car on their own.
They face Milwaukee, Detroit and Indiana four times, and they went 4-12 in their division last season.
They may have promising talent, but they don’t have assuredly good talent, and the history of college coaches making the jump is checkered at best.
The Verdict
- The pick: Under 24.5
- Confidence: 3 out of 10
Too young, too tank-y, too bad on defense. It’s a low bar, sure, which puts this one at a low confidence level, but if there’s a side, it needs to be the under.
