Clippers vs. Thunder Prediction, Picks for Thursday, Dec. 21
Here's everything you need to know about Clippers vs. Thunder on Thursday, Dec. 21 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Clippers will put their nine-game winning streak on the line when they head to Oklahoma City to face the Thunder. This will be the second leg of a back-to-back for the visitors after handing the Mavericks a 120-111 defeat.
Los Angeles was without star forward Paul George against Dallas, but Kawhi Leonard put the team on his back with a 30-point performance. George's status for Thursday is still unclear, as he'll likely be a game-time decision.
As good as the Clippers have been, I'm not sure this is the spot to back them, considering the short rest and a Thunder team that's the second-youngest (average age of 23.8 years) in the league.
Instead, I plan to look toward the total, as my model signals a more significant edge.
Clippers vs. Thunder Prediction
Pick: Over 235 points (-110)
Clippers Betting Outlook
This recent win streak has catapulted the Clippers up the standings. Los Angeles (17-10) now holds a half-game lead in the Pacific Division while sitting fourth in the Western Conference.
There's no question that the addition of James Harden has undoubtedly helped. The ten-time All-Star is averaging 17.1 points while dishing out 7.7 assists.
Offensively, Harden helped Los Angeles improve its efficiency. According to TeamRankings, it's currently seventh in the league, averaging 115 points per 100 possessions.
However, it's worth noting that the most significant boost to this Clippers team is that their star players have remained relatively healthy throughout the season. Leonard has played in 26 of 27 games this season and looks to have regained his explosiveness following his lengthy ACL injury.
As for Paul, he's played in 25 games, and despite recently sitting out against Dallas, the good news is he's battling an illness and not any muscle or bone injury.
Having Leonard and George available has also helped the Clippers defensively. They're up to seventh (108.5 points allowed per 100 possessions) in the league in efficiency after ranking 22nd (111.5 points allowed per 100 possessions) a season ago.
The one caveat is that the Clippers' defense hasn't been as potent away from Crypto.com Arena. On the road, Los Angeles drops to 19th in defensive efficiency with 113.4 points allowed per 100 possessions.
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Thunder Betting Outlook
Despite being a young team, Oklahoma City is willing to dictate the tempo in their games. The Thunder ranks sixth in pace with 105.1 possessions per game.
At home, that number's even higher at 106.1.
Oklahoma City gets its share of fast break points (15.7 per game), ranking seventh in this category. It shouldn't be surprising that they're even better at home, averaging 17.3 fastbreak points.
The Thunder is one of two Western Conference teams that ranks in the top ten in efficiency for both offense and defense. This matchup will feature the second team, with the Clippers on that shortlist.
But while most teams tend to play better defensively at home, that's not precisely the case for the Thunder.
Oklahoma City's allowing 109.2 points per 100 possessions at home compared to 105.5 on the road. The Clippers will likely oblige if the Thunder is somewhat lax defensively at home.
Los Angeles' offensive efficiency (116.3 points per 100 possession) is roughly three points better on the road than at home.
All this could lead to plenty of fireworks offensively when these teams take the court.
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Clippers vs. Thunder Picks, Odds
| Clippers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+4.5 -4.5 | 235 -110 / -110 | +165 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-110 -110 | 235 -110 / -110 | -200 |
Although the Clippers play slightly slower (101.4 vs. 102.5 possessions) on the road, their defense tends to be a liability in this spot. Both teams' home/away splits are fascinating because we know Oklahoma City is worse defensively inside its building.
As a result, it's tough to see where the stops will come from.
This total opened at 233.5 and has been bet up as high as 235.5. I agree with the move, as my model projects a total closer to 238.21 points.
These high totals have been generally profitable this season. According to our Action Labs database, games with an opening total of 230 or more points are 91-60 (60.3%) to the over for 22.91 units (15.2% ROI).
After shopping around, I found that PointsBet is offering the best number on the board, with a total of 235.
