Clippers vs. Warriors Pick, Prediction Tonight
Here's everything you need to know about Clippers vs. Warriors on Wednesday, Feb. 14 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Clippers head to the Bay Area in their last game before the All-Star Break, while the suddenly hot Warriors go for their sixth straight win before heading out to Utah on Thursday for a dance with the Jazz.
Let's get to our Clippers vs. Warriors pick and prediction.
Clippers vs. Warriors Pick
Pick: Clippers +3 (-110)
Clippers Betting Outlook
The Clippers (35-17) have been tremendous this season and sit two games back of the top spot in the West. They've turned a corner since the James Harden trade and look like a true title contender. However, tonight they will be without their MVP candidate, Kawhi Leonard (adductor).
The Clippers have still provided quality minutes and competition without Leonard but the key is keeping Harden and Paul George on the floor. When those two have played together without Leonard, Los Angeles is still +13.3 while scoring a whopping 129.3 points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass. When either of them are on the floor, the defense falters a bit but the team still is a +1.7 while scoring 122.7 per 100.
It becomes tougher for Ty Lue to stagger his talent without Leonard. However, on the entire season, the Clippers have played just 154 possessions without their Big Three on the floor. They will look to avoid that in this contest.
Warriors Betting Outlook
The Warriors have been better than their record and might be a buy-low candidate to make the playoffs and even a sprinkle to win the title. They are the 11th-best team in Adjusted Net Rating (+2.2), per Dunks & Threes, and that is largely because they have played the league's toughest schedule so far. While they will be without Chris Paul (hand), they have managed without him and seen a rise from youngsters Jonathan Kuminga and rookie Brandin Podziemski.
The Warriors have been much improved since Draymond Green returned to the starting lineup nine games ago, sitting at 7-2 with a +10.7 Net Rating, per NBA Advanced Stats. With five straight wins, the team is starting to click.
The hot streak has coincided with Steve Kerr deviating from his traditional closing lineups with Klay Thompson. Kerr is making the tough decisions and he seems to have some buy-in from the veterans to do so, which is critical for a team that might be in the waning stages of its dynasty with just a few opportunities left with Stephen Curry continuing to play at an all-world level.
The one problem for Curry in this matchup is that the Clippers have schemed against him well. They throw double teams at him and try to trap him in an anyone-but-him type of defensive scheme.
As a result, he has thrived as a passer. His assists prop is set at 5.5 today, a number he has exceeded in 48% of games this season, but in these head-to-head matchups he has cleared it in four of five games over the last two seasons. The one miss was in the Warriors' most-recent game against the Jazz where he had four assists on seven potential opportunities, but that was the one game with Chris Paul.
Prior to that matchup, Curry had averaged 8.5 assists on 14.25 potentials per game against the Clippers, with 11, 8, 6 and 9 dimes across the last two seasons. I like him to exceed 5.5 assists and would play some alternates — 8-plus (+360 FD) and 10-plus (+1000 FD) are both worthy sprinkles.
Clippers vs. Warriors Odds, Prediction
| Clippers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 237 -110 / -110 | +130 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 237 -110 / -110 | -155 |
This matchup is a tough one for both teams, especially without Leonard for the Clippers. However, as good as the Warriors have been of late, I have no interest in laying points with them. Neither team has been great against the spread in this spot, with the Clippers 2-5 as an underdog and the Warriors just 7-13 as a home favorite.
Leonard's absence properly swings the line a few points. However, the Clippers still have the skills and the coaching to limit Curry as a scorer while still putting up points themselves. I'll grab the points with the road dog.
Pick: Clippers +3 (-110)
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