Mavericks vs Celtics Prediction, Odds | Bet Boston in Game 5

The 2023-24 NBA season could come to a conclusion tonight, as the NBA Finals heads back to Boston. In the latest Mavs vs Celtics odds for Game 5 on Monday night, Boston is a 6.5-point favorite (-6.5), with the total set at over/under 210 points. Dallas is a +220 underdog to pull off the upset and keep its championship hopes alive.

The Dallas Mavericks put together a record-setting performance to force a return trip to Boston for Game 5 of the NBA Finals. No team has ever come back down from 0-3 in the NBA Playoffs, but can the Mavericks at least send this series back to Dallas for Game 6?

Let's break down what is and what is not replicable moving forward for the Mavericks, as we make our NBA Finals predictions with our Mavs vs Celtics picks for Game 5.

For even more on NBA Finals Game 5, head over to NBA Finals Best Bets | Celtics vs Mavericks Game 5 Picks.

The Mavericks shot the lights out on Friday night and posted a 128.4 Offensive Rating en route to 122 points, which was by far their best offensive performance of the series. In an interesting quirk, the Mavericks are now outscoring the Celtics by six points in the series despite starting down 0-3. The biggest concern is whether or not Dallas can replicate that desperate Game 4 performance on Monday.

Dallas won the 3-point battle by making 15 3s compared to Boston's 14; however, the Mavericks took four fewer 3s than the Celtics. The biggest swing for Dallas was scoring an incredible 60 points in the paint and out-rebounding Boston by 21, with a 52-31 advantage on the glass.

This is a bit skewed though because Boston simply could not buy a bucket as they shot just 36.3% from the field. Dallas did secure 13 offensive boards, which was highlighted by Dereck Lively II dominating on the glass with a whopping seven offensive rebounds. This was an advantage that should regulate in Game 5.

However, the Mavericks shifted this matchup by playing their bigs, mostly Lively, in a one-man zone to keep him primarily anchored to the paint — which they also employed late in Game 3.

In a nutshell, this helped with containing blow-bys and forcing the Celtics to make the extra pass compared to having easy finishes at the rim.

The Celtics are elite at manipulating switches, but by anchoring a big in the paint, the Mavericks avoided having a smaller player on an island near the bucket. This is something the Celtics will need to adjust to.

The Celtics have listed Kristaps Porzingis (ankle) as available to play under very specific circumstances in Game 5. It's mind-boggling that the NBA injury reports allow for this lack of transparency, but without KP, Dallas can more easily run those one-man zones because Xavier Tillman Sr. and even Al Horford are not the same threat to punish them from the perimeter.

Porzingis is a mismatch nightmare, especially for Dallas, and his absence is notable.

The Celtics' offense gummed up a bit in Game 4. In the first three games, Boston made 280.7 passes per game with 26 assists and 45 potential assists per game. Last game, Boston made 290 passes but only for 18 assists and 36 potentials.

Jrue Holiday (five), Jayson Tatum (three) and Jaylen Brown (two) combined for 10 turnovers in Game 4. They played a bit sloppy and had a historically poor +/- for the game. From an eye-test perspective, it certainly seemed that Brown and Tatum were each gunning for Finals MVP in Game 4, which took them out of their process that had been so successful in the prior three games.

Looking to Game 4, Boston should be able to attack the one-man zone with crisp passing to the perimeter. Even though the Mavericks were excellent with their closeouts, this would stress the defense in a new way. Derrick White missed a number of wide-open 3s, and Horford was not prepared enough to get his shots up quickly on a regular basis.

Historically, the trends here point toward the Celtics as they return home for a closeout Game 5. Per Action Labs, home favorites that lost the prior game by double digits are 149-112-5 ATS (57.1%) with an average margin of 2.47 points.

Considering Boston struggled so much from beyond the arc and the game was really out of hand before Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla could even consider making any real adjustments, I expect the Celtics to come out firing in Game 5. The Celtics have not lost consecutive games during this postseason and have not lost consecutive games since April 9th and 11th after they had already locked up the overall No. 1 seed for the NBA Playoffs.

I'm betting on Boston to bounce back with a reinvigorated effort in front of the home crowd at -6.5 or better on the spread.

Pick: Celtics -6.5 (-110)