By now, you know what went down on Wednesday in the NBA. Damian Lillard was finally traded to the Miam– wait, what?
The Heat were presumed front runners for Lillard, but the Milwaukee Bucks swooped in instead to secure Dame in a blockbuster trade. That left many pundits and fans alike wondering – was the Miami trade package offer better than what Portland got in the actual deal?
Our NBA columnists Brandon Anderson and Bryan Fonseca talk it out, while acknowledging the difficulty of coming to a concrete answer, given that we are dealing with what actually happened between the Bucks and Blazers and what reportedly maybe could have potentially happened possibly between the Heat and Blazers.
With that caveat, here's where we landed on the question of whether the Heat's offer for Damian Lillard would actually have been better than the Bucks' offer.
Was the Heat's Offer for Damian Lillard Actually Better Than the Bucks'?
Brandon Anderson: Let’s focus on just the Blazers portion of the deal as it went down. Portland finally moves on from Lillard and walks away from the deal with Deandre Ayton, Jrue Holiday, and three pick assets: a 2029 first rounder and 2028/2030 first-round pick swaps, all from Milwaukee, all unprotected. The presumption is that Holiday will be traded for further assets.
So that’s the actual outcome, the one thing we definitely know. As far as you can read the tea leaves, what was Miami genuinely considering offering, and what do you think was the best realistic Heat offer?
Bryan Fonseca: The Athletic reported that Miami was prepared to offer up to three first-round picks, multiple swaps (I believe it would’ve been two) and multiple seconds (the Heat have two that are tradeable, from what I understand). From what I’ve heard, and just looking at their draft capital, that’s the best you could do without outsourcing and bringing in a third team. However, I’ve always thought that if Tyler Herro were in the deal, whatever first-round pick he’d generate would then go to Portland, getting up to four firsts at best, but more likely three.
Then Miami matches salary (Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson would do the job if the assumption is Herro brings back a combination of players from a separate team), throws in Nikola Jović and or Jaime Jaquez, and that’s the best package.
But even so, I think what The Athletic noted – potentially three firsts, two swaps, two seconds, one young player (who is better than Toumani Camara) – would’ve been better than what they got, especially considering DeAndre Ayton could’ve been had by the Blazers with Miami involved regardless.
Anderson: OK, you’re coming out firing, so let’s get into this.
I feel strongly that the deal Portland actually got blows this theoretical Miami offer out of the water, and I think part of that is because you’re really overselling the Heat side.
Let’s do this in parts, and let’s start with just the picks.
Miami owes its 2025 pick to Oklahoma City. Because of the Stepien Rule, that means the Heat can’t trade their 2024 or 2026 pick either. The best they could offer would be 2027 and 2029 picks, with or without protections. That’s literally the most they can offer legally. And Miami has literally traded away its next seven seconds, aka all of them they can legally trade. The Heat have a 2026 second from the Lakers they can offer, which, yay.
So Miami could have offered TWO first-round picks, in 2027 and 2029. The 2027 pick is likely to be in the 20s if the Heat have Butler, Dame, and Bam. By 2029, who knows? But Miami doesn’t exactly pick in the top 10 very often as a franchise.
The Heat could have offered pick swaps too, but same caveat. A 2024 or 2026 pick swap with Portland is almost certainly nothing. Maybe it’s a thing in 2028 or 2030, but Miami’s organizational history says those likely aren’t worth much.
By the way, it is a compliment to the Heat that no one wants Miami’s picks!
So if the Heat completely emptied the picks tank, they could offer a blah 2027 first, a 2029 first, one Lakers second, and possible 2028/2030 pick swaps that likely don’t amount to much.
Instead, Portland got the rights to control Milwaukee’s 2028, 2029, and 2030 drafts. We’ve seen Giannis Antetokounmpo talk about leaving multiple times. Dame and Middleton will be ancient. Before the last five years, the Bucks have topped 46 wins ONCE since 1991. They were in the lottery in 16 of the 27 years, and the team could totally bottom out if Giannis leaves — like what happened when LeBron leaves, a thing which you’re intimately familiar.
Tell me how that Miami pick package is possibly comparable to the Bucks picks. Not all first-round picks and swaps are created equal.
Fonseca: For me, the picks come down to this – it’s potentially three unprotected firsts versus one, and the same amount of swaps.
Miami is a victim of their own success, sure, because no one wants their future firsts, but I’d gamble on them at least having a down year or two as Pat Riley, 78, and Jimmy Butler, 34, age out.
Miami has had recent down years. They had lottery picks in 2015, 2017 and 2019 and had the 20th overall in 2020, plus 18th overall in 2023. If you know how to draft and develop, those are quality picks. They drafted Justise Winslow, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Precious Achuiwa and Jaime Jaquez with those. Still on the board in 2020 were Tyrese Maxey and Desmond Bane. In 2015, so was Devin Booker. If they are even mid-firsts, you can find players there. And more picks just equals more opportunities to do that, never mind trade ammo.
Anderson: It’s two! It’s literally two picks, not three! There are actual rules!
I do think this is part of the confusion on this presumed Miami package, because it's easy to just add on theoretical picks into this giant pick sandwich. The Heat legally have only two firsts they can trade, plus that Lakers second. They cannot offer more picks, by rule, unless they acquire them somewhere else.
I think maybe what got lost in the reporting here is that those rumored "three firsts" and "multiple seconds" perhaps got there only because Herro was moved to a third team for picks, with those picks then re-routed to Portland. We don't know for sure — but there are actual rules, and it's important we don't double count assets.
Anderson: Let’s move on to the next piece – Deandre Ayton versus Tyler Herro as assets.
Ayton is 25 and signed for three years, $102 million. Herro turns 24 soon and is signed for four years, $120 million. So Herro is one year younger and slightly cheaper, and signed for one year longer.
I’ll let you start here because I know you did an assets draft this summer. Which player asset is more valuable, Ayton or Herro, and how close is it?
Fonseca: I’m going by The Athletic’s detailed report of saying Miami could get up to three, but we’ll move on.
I used to say I’m lower on Tyler Herro than consensus, but I don’t know what the consensus is anymore. He’s a one-way creator who can walk into an efficient 20 points and has had quality fourth quarter moments, still has playoff questions he needs to answer to (and who knows if he might’ve last year) and has a contract that will age decently given salary cap increases and forthcoming extensions to similar tier players. Herro is paid to do what he does and keep getting better at it.
Ayton has more two-way potential but is on an arguably worse contract because he’s not consistently the elite center he’s paid to be. Portland should rather have Ayton, I suppose, given that they have Simons. I’d say Herro is better than Simons – but you could fit either of the two for draft capital anyway.
To me, the fact that Ayton vs. Herro is debatable is damning to Ayton given what was projected of him out of college, and he hasn’t improved much if at all. (Portland could’ve had both in a possible three or four team deal anyway, but I digress.)
Anderson: I think we both agree that Ayton and Herro are not the most exciting assets in the world. They’re both overpaid, and both play roles that are consistently overpaid and overvalued in the modern NBA as non-star options at those spots.
I don’t particularly want either of them on my team. But if I have to pick one, it’s Ayton, especially if I’m Portland.
Herro is better than Simons, for now, but adding him only forces Portland to make a second deal – much like with Holiday. Ayton is the one guy of the three the Blazers can treat as a core piece going forward. Is he elite? Heck no, and I doubt he ever will be. But he’s a good rebounder, a positive defender, he’s durable and entering his prime, and he’s an above-average center in a league where big men are trending more important and there’s only so many legit good ones.
I think we both agree we can replace 80% of both Herro and Ayton fairly easily and far more cheaply. I prefer Ayton of the two, but it’s close. For Portland in particular, I’m not sure it should be that close given the construct of the team. By the way, the Blazers also dump three years and $54 million of bad Nurkic money (Phoenix, WYD), so you could argue Ayton is actually a $48 marginal additional cost there, and well worth it.
Had Portland received Herro, they would’ve had to trade him or Simons. Instead, they basically face the same situation with Jrue Holiday. Who do you think gets Portland more on a second trade – Holiday or Herro?
Fonseca: I think they’re banking on Holiday creating a bidding war among contenders, and that may serve them well. My issue is, everyone knows they’re going to have to move him, so will teams realistically make up, say, the draft capital Miami was potentially willing to put together? I’m not sure, although Brian Windhorst did have some interesting reporting on that topic.
I think the difference here is, Holiday helps you win now, and Herro might? But we’re not sure. Herro is better suited on a team like the Nets or Magic or Jazz, and would those teams offer more than a contending team would for Holiday regarding draft assets? I think it’s close.
It’s hard not to pick Holiday, but there’s zero threat of Portland keeping him, whereas acquiring Herro could have that angle, which could, in effect, create a bidding war among rebuilding teams, who might have better picks.
Anderson:I just wrote 2000 words heaping praise on Jrue Holiday and suggested trading him to 18 (!!) other rosters, so I think my position here is clear. I think Holiday is a top 25 player, the best asset in this deal by galaxies and universes untold, and SHOULD be worth a lot more in a deal.
Holiday wins me a championship. Herro scores some bench points. It’s no contest for me. But I recognize that the NBA likely sees it much closer.
It’s interesting because Holiday should be worth more, but he’s also worth more to teams like the Heat – who don’t really have young players or valuable picks, 'cause again, that’s the whole point. The teams that want Herro are not those contenders, and thus have more valuable theoretical picks and younger assets.
I mean, frankly, if I give you Holiday, I expect your pick to be less valuable. I’m perfectly content getting your pick with Herro.
Anderson: OK, so we’ve done picks versus picks, Ayton versus Herro, and Holiday versus Herro flip value. Let’s zoom back out.
Here’s how I’d rank the assets: Holiday first by a lot, then Bucks picks, then Ayton over Herro, especially for Portland. It’s a clear drop from there before Heat picks and/or random young dudes like Jovic, Jaquez, or Camara, none of whom excite me, but I defer to your international expertise.
So the Blazers gets the three best assets for me. A very clear, easy win.
You obviously disagree. How would you evaluate overall, and do you think Portland made an emotional decision here?
Fonseca: What was weird was The Athletic basically saying Portland didn’t speak to Miami as this was going on, as Damian Lillard – their best or second best player ever – wanted to go there, and they could’ve done a deal with Miami where Ayton was in play anyway.
There was a four-team framework with Miami, Phoenix, Portland included as three of them that Matt Moore, Jake Fischer (Yahoo), myself and others heard floated last week. And in said deal, Phoenix would’ve been better off – multiple Heat reporters told me Caleb Martin was someone they could obtain in the deal (they got Nasir Little instead).
I think Portland handled it very weirdly. It’s just irresponsible business to kill one option entirely when both Lillard and the Heat wanted it to happen, but they didn’t cooperate. Taking the other offer is fine, but not to entertain where you could land with Miami is just odd.
Regarding Miami, I’m high on Nikola Jovic and was before he got drafted (I have the tweets to prove it), and I like Jaime Jaquez. I think Jovic’s ceiling is somewhere around Hedo Turkoglu. Jaquez, I can’t quite tell player versus player, but he’ll be a quality combo forward someday.
Anderson: I don’t buy the emotional decision thing. If I’m Portland and I know what can possibly be on the table for Miami – and it ain’t Bam or Jimmy – and that I prefer all three assets in the offer I’m getting… why bother to make the call? You might like Jovic and Jaquez, but if Portland doesn’t, then low pedigree lottery tickets don’t offer much value. Milwaukee’s picks and swaps have far higher mystery box upside.
I just don’t feel like Portland owes it to Miami (or Dame) to entertain an offer they know they won’t like better. Smells like fantasy owners who cry VETO! when someone else makes a trade they wish they’d have gotten because they’re mad they couldn’t offer the two guys they just got off waivers. And for the record, kick that dude outta your fantasy league.
Anderson: All right, let’s wrap up with this.
It’s pretty clear that Miami was waiting on this deal, expecting it to happen. Now, your Heat are down Max Strus and Gabe Vincent and didn’t do much to replace them, and let’s not forget this team was in the play-in. In the past 15 months, we’ve seen Donovan Mitchell, Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, and Damian Lillard all want to come to Miami, and the Heat have struck out on all four. I’m just not sure they have the assets.
Where are you at on this team, both for this season now assuming there’s no miracle Dame replacement, and going forward?
Fonseca: I think the Heat are a playoff team.
The Bucks stand alone in Tier 1 as the top dog on paper. The Celtics are probably 1B, but I don’t think Kristaps Porzingis is going to be the home run some do – but I think they could get Holiday somewhat easily to be the new (and better) Marcus Smart.
The 76ers feel like a trainwreck waiting to happen, the Cavaliers are still in prove-it mode, and the Knicks haven’t had back to back good seasons in over a decade — and while this New York team can have another after last season, in my opinion, we’ll see.
I think the Heat are somewhere in that next tier with those teams, but the ceiling and floor doesn’t feel as high as Milwaukee or Boston. They’ve overachieved in three of the last four years, so I’m open to them doing it – I just don’t think it looks like anything more than a conference semifinals appearance. Maybe conference finals if things break right.
Anderson: For me, I have five East teams clearly ahead in the pecking order: Bucks, Celtics, Cavs, Knicks, and Sixers (for now). Miami is in a 6-to-10 tier, and they’re lacking depth. Every key player has a long injury history, and now they’re coming off a long, draining postseason run.
I’m very worried for this team, and I have to play the Heat to miss the playoffs at +575 (Bet365). I don’t expect them to miss the play-in but do think they end up back there again, and now I’ve got a nice ticket and some options.
Either way, we’ll have to agree to disagree on who had the better trade package here. If I’m a Blazers fan and spend the whole summer staring at this Heat offer, I’m feeling prettay, prettay, prettay good about Ayton, Holiday, and Bucks picks. Let’s see how it plays out!
