The Denver Nuggets face off against their divisional foes, the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Semi-Finals. This is a rematch from last season where the Nuggets took that first-round series 4-1. While Denver is similarly situated, the Timberwolves have dramatically improved in just one season. Those five games were relatively competitive, and Denver maintained an average point margin of +8.8 points per game. This season, the two teams split the regular season series 2-2 and the matchups brought a ton of nuance with the matchups on the interior between Nikola Jokic and the duo of Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns and on the perimeter with Jamal Murray and Anthony Edwards and how these teams can defend them.
It's important to dive into what happened last season and the results and see if there's anything to take away from that prior to diving into this season's matchup.
Last season, when these teams met in the playoffs these were the statistical leaders:
- Points: Anthony Edwards (158); Murray (136); Jokic (131)
- Rebounds: Jokic (62); Gobert (61); KAT (51)
- Assists: Jokic (45), Murray (32), Conley (32)
- Threes: Murray (18), Edwards (15), MPJ (14)
This season in the four matchups they played, there were a few interesting stats on a per game basis.
- Points: Jokic (33.3), Edwards (26.0), KAT (21.0), Murray (17.3)
- Rebounds: Gobert (13.0), Jokic (11.8), KAT (8.0), Gordon (6.3)
- Assists: Murray (7.7), Reggie Jackson (5.5), Conley (5.3), Jokic (4.3?!?!)
- Threes/Attempts: Conley (3.5/5.8), Murray (2.3/4.3), MPJ (2.0/5.0), Edwards (1.5/6.5)
The most eye-popping stat here is that Jokic is only averaging 4.3 assists per game on 9.3 potentials, per NBA Advanced Stats. This was despite playing four games against Minnesota compared to the 3 by Murray. Murray paced both of these teams with 7.7 assists on 13.3 potentials per game. This makes sense from a game plan perspective as well. The Timberwolves have a multitude of defensive options to throw at Murray including Jaden McDaniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Anthony Edwards. They make his life extremely difficult for Murray as a scoring threat, and while Gobert is one of the best options to defend Jokic straight up (this still is not optimal), the Timberwolves do not use that matchup. The Timberwolves used KAT on Jokic and had Gobert roam off of Gordon – while this opens up the possibility of the Jokic/Gordon pick-and-roll, it is not nearly as long-term efficient as having Jokic take on KAT straight up. Denver does not have a plethora of options to consistently create their own offense — if Murray is successfully limited 1-on-1 then the scoring load should land on Jokic as opposed to the scoring.
This is actionable in a few ways. The best way to attack this is Jamal Murray to Lead the Series in Assists (+900 MGM), I would play this down to (+600). This is an angle I've discussed with my colleague, Brandon Anderson, and he also thinks this is a strong angle to attack in this series. Jokic is the only player between these two teams who consistently would post double digit dimes, but when you consider his assists per game dropped to 9 per game during this playoff series last year and 4.3 per game during this season series, this is a market that we can attack.
If that (+900) is too steep for you, consider Murray under 24.5 points or over 6.5 assists or Jokic under 9.5 assists in Game 1. Hopefully, Murray gets off to a hot start and it may create a hedge opportunity if we start to see adjustments.
Scoring leader is another market and one that I am interested in the two favorites: Anthony Edwards (+160 Bet365) and Nikola Jokic (+165 FD). I'd like to see how it lines up after Game 1 and buy in to whichever scores fewer points after that game but my pre-series lean would be Jokic. Jokic's points prop is set at 28.5, a number he has exceeded in 3/4 against the Wolves this season while averaging 33.3. I'll take that over.
As for Edwards, his points prop is set at 27.5, a number he's hit in just 1/4 vs Denver this season; however, he scored 24, 30, 25, 25 – he was incredibly consistent shooting about 50% in all four games and that was despite going just 6/26 from 3 – a number that should improve.
My concern with betting Jokic is that he can fall off as a scoring threat if that's not what the team needs – he can contribute in so many different ways, while for Edwards, if he's not scoring then he is not contributing nearly enough. Edwards' role seems more stable.
I previously mentioned that the Wolves have used Gobert as a floater as he shades off of Aaron Gordon. This should impact Gordon's scoring and rebounding opportunities if he's drawn away from the rim to stretch the floor for the Nuggets. In ten games with Gobert over the last two seasons, Gordon has averaged 12.6 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 3.8 assists. I'd look for an under on his rebounds prop – it's a tough spot generally considering Minnesota allows the fourth-fewest rebounds per game to their opponents but if he's being used in an effort to space the floor, those offensive boards may dry up. His prop for game 1 is 7.5 (-125 FD), a number he's hit in only 37% of games this season and in just 20% of playoff games over the last two seasons.
One of the interesting angles in this series will be who is able to get going from beyond the arc. MPJ was red-hot in the first round, but between these two teams there are no players regularly taking ten 3's per game. It's an exploitable spot. While Edwards (+280 DK) makes some sense for this market, I'd rather just bet him for points leader if we are expecting that he maintain this uptick in 3 point efficiency.
One player that I expect to make noise specifically because of his ability to contribute on the defensive side of the ball is Nickeil Alexander-Walker. In Round 1, NAW made 2.3 on 7.0 attempts per game – this is actually below his season average of shooting 39.1% from three-point range – it's the opposite problem that Edwards has and his defense should keep him on the floor. At +3000, the number is far too long in a series that does not have a pure sharpshooter from distance. I'd sprinkle this.
Finally, I think Gobert is being underrated as a rebounder in this series. While Jokic is the favorite, Gobert's number is too long (+170 Bet365). Gobert is averaging 12.2 rebounds per game in the playoffs and was just one rebound behind Jokic in last season's matchup. In the games this season, Gobert secured 12, 12, and 15 rebounds while Jokic pulled down 10, 10, and 11. If Jokic needs to spend more effort as a scoring threat, his exertion on the defensive side of the ball may be a bit lighter for rebounds. Plus, looking back through last season's playoffs, Jokic has had two spikes of 14 and 17 rebounds; however, the other six games are of 11 or fewer boards. Both Gobert and Jokic have such high floors that I think the market is cornered with just those two players. I prefer Gobert at the number.
Bets
- 1 Unit – Jamal Murray Series Assists Leader (+900 MGM)
- 1 Unit – Aaron Gordon Under 7.5 Game 1 Rebounds (-125 FD)
- 0.2 Units – NAW Series 3s Leader (+3000 DK)
- 1 Unit – Rudy Gobert Series Rebounds Leader
