The Denver Nuggets (41-23) and Oklahoma City Thunder (53-11) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will broadcast live on NBA TV.
The Thunder are 9-point favorites over the Nuggets on the spread (Thunder -9), with the over/under set at 238 total points. Oklahoma City is a -375 favorite to win outright, while Denver is +295 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Monday, March 10.
Nuggets vs. Thunder Picks, Prediction
Spread
I see no value on either side as my model projection of OKC at -9 aligns with the market.
Moneyline
While I'd expect the Thunder to win the game, a moneyline as high as -400 is too steep for my liking.
Over/Under
The total is where we can find some value, considering my projection is closer to 232 points.
My Pick: Under 238
Nuggets vs. Thunder Odds
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -110 | 238 -110o / -110u | +295 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -110 | 238 -110o / -110u | -375 |
- Nuggets vs. Thunder spread: Thunder -9
- Nuggets vs. Thunder over/under: 238 total points
- Nuggets vs. Thunder moneyline: Nuggets +295, Thunder -375
- Nuggets vs. Thunder best bet: Under 238 (-110)
My Thunder vs. Nuggets best bet is on the Under at 238 total points, with the best line currently available at DraftKings. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Nuggets vs. Thunder Preview
Oklahoma City extended its winning streak to seven games with a 127-103 victory over the Nuggets on Sunday afternoon. The two sides will retake the court a day later in a rare back-to-back featuring two quality teams in the conference.
You'd almost hope the schedule makers would have thought to put a bit of distance between these games because it's difficult to have the same build-up and interest when they just faced one another roughly 24 hours ago.
Seeing how both teams respond to the quick turnaround will be intriguing. The Thunder are well aware that Denver's offense relies on an uptempo style to get easier buckets.
However, Oklahoma City is the best defensive team in the league by a wide margin, as its efficiency (105.6) is four points better than the Clippers (109.5) who rank second.
The Thunder can also neutralize the Nuggets in transition, considering Denver ranks first with 19.9 fastbreak points. OKC plays excellent transition defense, allowing a league-best 12.2 points in this spot.
Perhaps the biggest challenge for Denver will be harnessing its aggression while maintaining control of the basketball. The Nuggets rank in the bottom half for turnovers (14.2 per game) while OKC generates more points (22.2) from opponent errors than any other team.
Thus, we have a situation where Denver's strengths seem to play right into the hands of this Thunder defense.
With just one victory in the last six games against OKC, Nuggets head coach Mike Malone might want to rethink his plan of attack for defeating the No. 1 team in the West.
It's worth noting that seven of the last 10 meetings in this series finished under the total.
Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction
After making my case for the under, I'll look to target Alex Caruso's points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop when building my bet365 same-game parlay.
Caruso is one of those key pieces that every contending team needs, and he has remained productive, albeit while logging fewer minutes with the Thunder. The eight-year veteran could be an option for increased playing time given this back-to-back spot for OKC. Such circumstances could prove favorable for him exceeding his PRA prop of 11.5.
Caruso has gone over this line in three of his last four games on short rest, but more importantly, he has also cleared it in six straight games when facing a bottom-10 defense.
The Nuggets fit that criteria defensively and it's pleasing to know that Caruso has covered this number in his last two games against Denver. Combining both legs would give us a decent return with odds at +282.
Best Bet: Under 238 (-110)
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Under 238 points
- Alex Caruso Over 11.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Parlay Payout: +282
Thunder vs. Nuggets Betting Trends
