DENVER—When things go right, the Boston Celtics are a phenomenal team. They are 48-13 with a league-best net rating and all sorts of historically good stats.
The regular season is about honing who you are and finding the best version you can be. No one has been better at that than Boston the past two seasons. When the Celtics play Celtics basketball, they are not just better but better by a wide margin than most other teams.
The Celtics have been incredibly consistent this season; they are prepared, compete every night, and play their game. That is what will give them the No. 1 seed and homecourt throughout the playoffs, and it's also what makes them the title favorite.
The problem is, what happens when things don't go right? When things don't go right, they look like a team dependent on shot variance, without the ability to execute at the level needed in tight situations, and struggles to adapt to what the game calls for.
They can be the perimeter-ball-moving, heavy-ISO, three-point-bombing Celtics, or they can lose. They don't shape-shift.
Across from Boston on Thursday night were the Denver Nuggets. A team that knows who they are and maintains their identity but also adapts to what the game calls for.
Put another way, the Nuggets solve the problems before them, and the Boston Celtics hope their solutions work.
That's the gap between the defending champs and a team that has made four conference finals appearances and a Finals appearance in five seasons but no title.
Thursday night, you could find the narratives you wanted in Denver's 115-109 win over Boston to sweep the season series. You could blame Jayson Tatum, who was getting some MVP buzz after beating the Play-In-Bound Warriors by 50 on Sunday. Tatum finished with just 15 points on 5-of-13 shooting and eight assists but five turnovers. Boston lost his minutes by two.
You could blame the Celtics' reliance on 3-point shooting. The team that leads the NBA in 3-pointers made per game finished 11-of-38 for 29 percent.
You could blame the Celtics' woeful performance at the line, as Boston shot just 16-of-25 from the charity stripe, giving away precious, needed points.
But to better understand why there's still some respectful skepticism towards Boston, no matter how many times they annihilate teams in January, you need to understand the difference between good teams and great teams.
Good teams win because they can make the things happen under most circumstances. However, great teams can win in any given situation. When things things go wrong, great teams still have the answers.
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Against the Los Angeles Lakers, it was Jamal Murray carving up LA's subpar perimeter defenders. Against the Celtics, it was Aaron Gordon skying in for dunk after dunk.
Late in the game, Michael Malone laid out what makes Denver's late-game actions with Jokic and Gordon so tough to guard. He said the Celtics went to switching versus the Nuggets' two-man game with Jamal Murray to make sure Murray couldn't get space. That put a smaller player on Jokic.
This is a typical tactic from teams that don't see Jokic often. It's worked against big men historically: put a small on them, and they will pick up an offensive foul or be unable to score. But Jokic has seen it hundreds of times.
So he backs down the smaller defender and scores. Or the Celtics had to bring help, and then it's a lob to Aaron Gordon. Over and over again. There's no good way to defend it. But there was also nothing unpredictable about what Boston did.
To start the second half, the Celtics came out with the purpose of getting the three-pointers going. They ran actions for Jayson Tatum with Kristaps Porzingis screening, then popping for three. Jokic was in a soft drop coverage to contain Tatum's drives, leaving Porzingis open twice. Michael Malone immediately called timeout and adjusted the coverage, which helped Denver spring loose again.
For Boston, there was never any real adjustment. They didn't try to get Porzingis in the post on switches versus smaller defenders despite Denver's base scheme switching with any combo that doesn't involve Jokic. They didn't try and put more pressure on the rim with Tatum post-ups to get him going.
There were no major disruptions of rotations, not to get another big in late to help with the Gordon-play that Denver has shown over and over on film, and not to avoid a nightmare few possessions when Payton Pritchard was on the floor (and switching?) versus Jokic.
It's March; it's not the time for major disruptions. Teams do what they do and hope that's good enough to get the win. But both the Celtics and Nuggets got up for Thursday night's battle. It was a playoff atmosphere, right down to a crowd of solidly 35-40% Celtics fans who Michael Malone instructed postgame to "take the L on the way out."
Every Boston loss, all 14 of them, feels like a referendum because they haven't won a title but have come so close. Had they won two more games in 2022, this would feel different. In reality, Boston can either make all the changes they need to in the postseason or play well enough not to need them. Winning Thursday night would not change their need, nor the confidence Denver has to do so because they did it last spring.
But while you can explain away the late-game offensive stall-outs or wave your hand at shot variance from three-point range, much of the gap between the Nuggets and other contenders is simply because they are able to adapt to whatever the situation calls for. If they have to buckle down defensively, they have the best clutch-time defensive rating in the league.
With better luck, the Celtics might have won this game. That's the difference, however: the Nuggets do not leave games up to luck.
They make the adjustments, they make the plays, and they find a way to win when things don't go right. Denver shot worse than Boston from three-point range, making just four on the night. Jamal Murray had 18 points on 19 shots. Michael Porter Jr. didn't crack double-digits. Jokic suffered an elbow injury that left him sore.
Denver not only found a way to win but also led for almost the entirety of the game. They don't have to hope their superstar has it going. He'll find a way to impact the game and win his minutes whether his shot is falling or he needs to pass or rebound. They don't have to hope their three-pointers fall; they can score from mid-range or at the rim just as easily.
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Boston is the best of the best in the league this season. Regular-season success is strongly tied to playoff success, no matter how far divorced the playoffs feel from it at this point. Boston should still be considered the favorite to win the title.
But Thursday night served as a reminder that the title goes through Denver, with the best and most complete player in the game always there in the big moments, a coach who understands how to operate in crunch time, and a supporting cast that knows how to do the what they need to do in order to win.
Those differences are small, but sometimes they feel very big.
The NBA Playoffs begin in 43 days.
