Defensive Player of the Year used to be won by players who put up stats, but didn't necessarily play the best defense. It was also sometimes given as a lifetime achievement award, or in recognition of past accomplishments. From 2004-2012, only 2 players won defensive player of the year and played for a top 2 defense.
In 2013, the award changed. That year, Marc Gasol beat out LeBron James for DPOY. It was considered a win for advanced analytics, as his statistical profile wasn’t outstanding, and his eye test didn’t necessarily meet that of LeBron. But the Grizzlies were almost tied for the best defense in the NBA, and 4.5 points better than the Heat were. Memphis allowed 97.7 points per 100 possessions when Gasol was out there, while Miami was at 103.1 for LeBron.
Since then, every defensive player of the year has played for a top 2 defense in the NBA. Last year, Minnesota finished 2.6 points per possession better than the second-best defense, and Rudy Gobert ran away with the award. Finishing on a top 2 defense is BY FAR the most important factor in determining who will win this award.
Other factors do matter: generally, winners are under 30, their team is one of the best at effective field goal percentage allowed, they usually played for a top 12 defense the year before, and 11 straight winners had made first or second team in a prior year, with 10 of the 11 having made first team previously.
All of this leads to the big elephant in the room when it comes to the award and the number one question that needs to be answered before betting.
Is This Victor Wembanyama's Award to Lose?
Last year, as a rookie, Wemby was phenomenal. He easily won Rookie of the Year, and finished second in DPOY, with a decent gap between him and third place Bam Adebayo. Wemby was good as the team's starting power forward, but when he moved to center he exploded on both offense and defense. Zach Collins started the first 21 games at center, and the Spurs were 3-18 with the third-worst defense in the NBA, allowing 121.3 Pts/Poss. When he got hurt and was taken out of the lineup, and only started 11 sporadic games the rest of the year, the Spurs were 19-42 with the 15th-best defense, at 115.5 pts/Poss. For the whole season, when Wemby was on the floor, the Spurs' defense was at 112.8 pts, which was equivalent to the 6th best defense. He was incredible.
Going into this season, Wemby is at minus odds to win, which hasn't happened in at least 10 years. Over the last ten seasons, only two preseason favorites have won the award. The main crux of the argument against Wemby is simple: the Spurs' defense was not good last year, and even the most optimistic take would not have them top 5 this season. Which brings us to two important questions:
In a hypothetical world where Gobert didn't play last year, would Wemby have won?
This is an important question to understand because Wemby clearly came in second. Voters may have been comfortable voting for Wemby knowing Gobert had the award locked up, and wanting to plant their flag for the future. Wemby was incredible defensively, and he made a huge impact on the Spurs. Of the players on the six teams that finished 2-7 last season on defense, Bam came in third, and the rest of those players combined for one first, three second, and four third-place votes. My best guess is if Gobert hadn't played, Bam would have gotten a lot more consideration, and it would have been a close vote between him and Wemby, partly to give it to Bam as a chance for him to win his first award.
If the Spurs defense is not top 5, or even top 10, can Wemby still win?
We now have 12 straight winners who have played for a top-two defense. Voters would be breaking precedence to give him the award, essentially saying that the quality of the rest of his team is less important, as his individual brilliance outshines them all.
This could be the case! Wemby is such a dynamic defensive player, and players became more and more afraid to try him as the season went on. This was even the case at the Olympics against the best players in the world, where France decided without a doubt that having Wemby out there was better than Gobert.
Ultimately, I think Wemby has a really good chance to win. But assuming voters throw out precedence might be a little much. It doesn't make sense to bet Wemby at these odds, and if voters do stick to precedence, there is likely a lot of value on other players.
Why Can't Gobert Repeat?
In 2018, Gobert was a defensive force, won DPOY, and the Jazz finished second on defense. The following season, the Jazz finished first and a point better than anyone else, and Rudy went back to back.
In fact, NBA history is littered with players going back to back with this award. Since the first year this award was given out, 11 out of 42 times the winner won the year before. Minnesota was 2.6 points better than anyone else. Even with a little regression, it would seem that they would be destined to finish top 2 again.
But, the NBA is a league of learning and adapting, and on a year-to-year basis, coaches have gotten better at adjusting. Often, what works one year doesn't work as well the next. Over the last 12 seasons, the teams that finished first and second in defense finished top 5 the following season 10 out of a possible 24 times. Only one time has a team finished first in defense in back-to-back seasons. It also means that being static on defense, and trying the same thing again, isn't as successful: it always helps to mix it up, even a little bit.
It's likely that Minnesota's defense will fall off for a variety of reasons. Teams will come in with a better game plan after watching film from last year, Gobert will be a little older, Kyle Anderson is gone, and I think Towns may be a better defender next to Gobert than Randle will be. There is also a level of voter fatigue for Rudy, and it would take an incredible season for voters to give him a 5th award.
Let's dive into some teams/candidates:
Oklahoma City Thunder: Chet Holmgren (+1800), Alex Caruso (+5500), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+20000), Lou Dort (+10000), Isaiah Hartenstein (+25000)
I think it's important to start with Oklahoma City. I have them in a tier by themselves defensively this season, way ahead of everyone else, and with an extremely good chance to finish first. I already covered why I'm so high on the Thunder, especially defensively, and this makes each one of their players a legitimate candidate for the award.
Chet received no votes for Defensive Player of the Year last year. Caruso, Dort, and Shai are all part of the team's defensive structure. Last season, these four players finished 13th, 5th, 11th, and 15th in terms of all defensive team votes. I think there is a chance this ends up being like Boston two seasons ago, who had a lot of great defenders and Marcus Smart ended up winning.
Since I think there is a 50% chance they will finish as a top-two defense, then the most likely winners are the big men: Chet and Hartenstein. Chet was the second-best rim protection by points saved at the rim and is bound to improve in his second season. For Hartenstein, these odds are really long. If Chet misses some time, or he just has an incredible season, he'd be a contender for this award. Both of these players' odds are ultimately too long, and I'm betting on both this season.
- Betting .05u on Isaiah Hartenstein at +25000 on BetRivers (Bet down to +10000)
- Betting .5u on Chet Holmgren at +1800 at Caesars (Bet down to 1300).
Dillon Brooks (+30000), Herb Jones (+7000), OG Anunoby (+4000), Mikal Bridges (+10000)
All of these players have made all NBA first or defense second team previously, they are all strong defenders, and could all end up on a top 2 defense. They are also all forwards. Metta World Peace and Kawhi Leonard are the only forwards who have won this award since 2000, and both were all out forces on defense. It takes a lot to win Defensive Player of the Year.
I'm concerned Dillon Brooks isn't that good anymore, and that OG and Mikal will overlap in skills enough for neither to receive true credit. Herb is a real star and part of the key to New Orleans's defensive success. But he hasn't been overwhelming yet, and New Orleans's defense has a ton of question marks (namely no center).
+4000
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Giannis is still a hellacious defender, and the Bucks will be better defensively with a year of Doc Rivers and its additions of Gary Trent Jr. and Delon Wright. These odds are very long for someone who made 4 straight all-defensive first teams, before playing only 63 games in 2023 and then having the coaching mess last year. With Doc as coach, they had the 13th-best defense in the NBA, and he cleaned up a lot of basic defensive mistakes.
Throughout the Bucks's defensive dominance, they always had an all-NBA defense caliber guard paired with their big men. This isn't the case anymore, and they are going to struggle with perimeter defense yet again. I think it's unrealistic to expect him to be the best defensive player on the floor anymore.
Joel Embiid
+6000
I think Embiid is a better bet here than for MVP, with the longer odds. Adding Paul George, even as a secondary help defender, will make them better. But between Embiid being unlikely to play 65 games and their defense perhaps not being as good, I think this is a pass.
Anthony Davis
+2500
Last year, I posited what would happen if AD played enough games. If he played over 65 games, I thought there was a 40% chance they would finish as one of the two best defenses in the NBA. Anthony Davis played 76 games, the most of his entire career, and the Lakers finished 16th on defense. Up until last year, AD had played 7 straight years where his team was elite on defense when he was on the floor. Last year, they were essentially average. How did this happen?
Last year, the Lakers opponents 38.1% from three, and 39.9% from the corner, 24th and 19th in the NBA. 3 point shooting, especially from the corners, can sometimes be fluky. When AD was on the floor, opponents shot 39.1% from three, and an astonishing 44% from the corner! This is way worse than in his career, and mostly unlucky.
I don't hold that AD has fallen off a cliff defensively. Austin Reaves was terrible last year, Gabe Vincent missed the whole season, and Taurean Prince (who is gone) was atrocious defensively. Their chances of getting back to the top 2 are real, and if they do, AD could win. I ultimately think there isn't enough defensive talent on the rest of the roster to get there for AD.
Jaren Jackson Jr.
+2500
Jaren was a deserving defensive player of the year in 2023. He was not good defensively last year, at all. Not having a real big man definitely hurt, but I'm not sure how solid Edey will be defensively his first season. Jaren's 2024 season defensively was below average, which means in his career, he has three strong seasons, 2 below average, and one terrible.
I think Memphis has a lot of questions, and these odds assume they will return to a top 2 defense: I'm not sure that team is still here after all the changes.
Evan Mobley
+3000
I bet Mobley last year, contending that making all defensive first team his second season was a great accomplishment. Mobley regressed last year defensively, but he also missed a ton of time. With a new coach in Kenny Atkinson, who got a lot out of Jarrett Allen in Brooklyn, I think Cleveland's defense will return to being upper echelon.
My biggest concern here is how credit will be apportioned between him and Allen. Tim Duncan was the last player (before Wemby and Mobley) to make an all-NBA defensive team in his second season, but he never won Defensive Player of the Year (likely incorrectly). He received defensive player of the year votes in 9 of his first 11 seasons: in each one of those, a teammate received votes as well and finished top 7 on the ballot. Mobley likely suffers from the same problem, where the credit for Cleveland's defense will likely be split down the middle. I do think he has some real value here, but I think as long as Jarrett Allen is there, it'll take away credit from just him.
All that being said, the odds for Mobley are too long at some books. If the Cavs return to top 2, and things fall in his favor, he would be a clear top 2 candidate. At +3000, that's too long, and it's a little long at lower odds as well.
Bam Adebayo
+1700
Bam's defensive impact was pretty solid last year, as the Heat were 5.1 points better defensively when he was on the floor. The Heat's formula with Bam has always been to let him anchor a defense, quarterbacking where players should be, and having strong perimeter defenders with him. While he isn't an elite rim protector, he is great at the other things, and they have used that to get to a top 10 defense since Bam became a full time starter.
But last year, they moved Nikola Jovic into the starting lineup, playing Bam next to another big guy for the first time since 2020. In response, the Heat took off with both of them in the lineup, posting a 107.1 defensive rating when both were on the floor (best in the NBA). As a reminder, a double big lineup with versatile defenders is the best path to a top 2 defense. The Heat may finally have that, as they also added Kel'el Ware to the big-man rotation. I think Miami's defense finally may get to that top 2 point, and Bam will finally take home his DPOY trophy.
- Betting Bam at .75u +1700 on FanDuel (Bet down to 1000).
