On one hand, yes it is comically early to look at the NBA Awards landscape. Teams have played three, maybe four games in a season that stretches until mid-April.
On the other hand, having played around in these markets for many years, I can tell you no week will see more movement in the market than this first week (with the week surrounding the trade deadline being the only other contender). And it makes sense. While much of it can be noisy, we’re just getting so much new information. Which players are in bigger roles? Which coaches have new schemes—potentially faster-paced, or more star-centric schemes? Who among the young players looks to have made a leap? Who is seeing a change in their shot profile? Some of these things are inherently mirages, one-week trends that we will look back on and chuckle. So let’s sort through some of that, and see what bets pop.
Most Valuable Player
Of all the awards, MVP is the least susceptible to first week variances. It makes sense—these are the mega stars, we aren’t going to be swung by a week or even a month.
As such, the advice pretty much remains from before the season: Wait until the lull of the season and jump on it.
The big three each have started the season incredibly well. For Jokic, the Nuggets look like easily the best team in the league, with Jokic already with two triple-doubles in four games already. Jayson Tatum was my preseason “If you want to bet one guy and just let it be” pick, and he remains as such, with the Celtics looking outstanding and Tatum at the helm.
The most intriguing update in the first week for any of the three for me personally comes with Luka Doncic and the Mavericks pace. Last season, they ranked 28th in pace, which made Luka’s counting stats all the more impressive. This season, they are sixth in pace, and it’s showing in Luka’s statistical profile. He’s averaging an insane 39.0/11.7/9.7 through three games (all wins), and despite supposedly nursing an injury coming into the season, he looks damn good.
The only name that catches my eye outside these three is Damian Lillard. He had an amazing Bucks debut but has been quiet since, and is sitting at 30:1. You definitely don’t need to be it right now, but keep an eye on this. After that first game, there was lots of “Dame is the best player on the Bucks, isn’t he?” chatter, which, if the Celtics slip and the Nuggets go into cruise control a bit, could be a big factor in Lillard being right there in this conversation come April.
Most Improved Player
This is the award that has had arguably the most attention on it so far, so much so that I dedicated an entire piece to it yesterday.
Rookie of the Year
Through week one this certainly looks like Wemby’s award to lose. But the cap against Wemby was never that he was going to be bad, it was that he wasn’t going to play the full season. And with the Spurs looking fun but nothing amazing, I still think that’s a viable route.
As such, I like adding Brandon Miller at +2000. Unfortunately, he was quite literally twice as long earlier this week, but there’s a reason for the move—he’s been playing quite well! The second overall pick is first among rookies in points per game, fourth in rebounds, and has a solid 20.2 percent usage rate.
Sixth Man of the Year
Here’s another one that has been chaotic early. Two names have really popped to me. Tim Hardaway Jr. is another Mavs player set to benefit from a faster pace from Dallas, especially given that the space has really been faster from the bench unit. He’s averaging 29.0 minutes a game and 15.0 FGA, 8.0 from deep per game in the early season, and he fits the mold of a 6MoY to a T. Some books don’t have this market up right now, making it difficult to shop around, but he was at +4000 earlier this week. Even at +1600 (currently available), I like the bet.
The other name is a less typical 6MoY type — Chris Paul. But boy, oh boy is this a juicy one. At +1400, this is arguably my favorite bet of the whole article, and a great look from Action’s Joe Dellera. Paul has come off the bench the last two games for Golden State, despite Klay Thompson being out on Monday night. He’s averaging 10.5/5.5/6.0 in that tiny sample (with way more potential assists), but what this centers around is the narrative aspect of this award, and CP3 would murder the field in that manner. He’s a vet who is taking on a lesser role to stabilize a bench unit that, for the past decade (!), has been the biggest bugaboo for the most successful franchise. If you don’t think this narrative is going to be driven into the ground, well, it has already started!
If the Warriors keep winning the non-Steph minutes … they are going to win A LOT of games.
— Tim Kawakami (@timkawakami) October 31, 2023
ALSO.
Chris Paul, 2023-24 Sixth Man of the Year Award winner send tweet
— Nekias (Nuh-KY-us) Duncan (@NekiasNBA) June 22, 2023
If Paul can float that bench unit and stay healthy enough himself to be eligible, he should walk into a top two finish.
Defensive Player of the Year
The final award we’ll be covering here (Clutch Player of the Year isn’t worth discussing yet), there is some intrigue to me here. And it’s a name that doesn’t check every box of our criteria, but at +10000, he’s worth a nibble as a potential piece in the portfolio.
We know we want a big man on a team that is going to have an elite defense. This guy checks both those boxes, and he’s averaging two blocks and a steal per game to boot. He does not, however, have much prior history with the award, or even All-Defense, but in all fairness, I was actually a little surprised about the latter. He is coming off a season in which he re-bolstered his reputation as a rim defender, and has had an incredibly flashy start to his new team and season.
Kristaps Porzingis is at 100:1 to win DPoY at BetRivers, and while I don’t think it’s much above a 10 percent chance he wins this award this season (and even that number is being generous given his injury history as well), I definitely would make his odds above the implied one percent here. I also think there’s a decent chance he’s in the conversation late, ala Brook Lopez last season, who bettors were able to leverage a crazy early-season number to build up their Jaren Jackson stock when it came down to the wire.
Recommended Bets
Brandon Miller: Rookie of the Year +2000, BetMGM or BetRivers
Tim Hardaway Jr: Sixth Man of the Year (shop around, would play to +1600)
Chris Paul: Sixth Man of the Year +1400, Many books
Kristaps Porzingis: Defensive Player of the Year +10000, BetRivers
